Israeli blockade of Gaza caused Oct 7th

Billo_Really

Okay. I've located and read the Lancet study.

From October 7, 2023 to June 30, 2024, according to this study, 29, 271 unique decedents from trauma-related injury have been identified by comparing the MoH hospital lists; an online survey list; and social media.

This is very much in line with what other studies have shown (except for the trauma-related injury part as, to my knowledge, no records, including MoH records claim cause of death.)

Then, for some reason I am unable to fathom, they ADD another 34, 995 deaths that are "estimated deaths outside any list". That is, they estimate that there are 34, 995 deaths for which there are no records. I have yet to determine how they obtained that number. Near as I can tell they just arbitrarily added the extra deaths to inflate the numbers. (I am not a statistician, but I can't see in the study their rationale. If someone else can, I'd be grateful for an explanation).

Also, lest people complain I have no heart, yes, every civilian death, especially the deaths of children is terrible and tragic and every effort should be made to prevent those deaths. (I am very much less empathetic to Hamas members and any who celebrated, assisted, or contributed to the atrocities committed on October 7 and the 18 years of preparation leading up to it.)
Their results are purely speculative, but beyond that, the number of civilian casualties among the Palestinians is irrelevant, since as long as Israel continues to follow the rules of International Humanitarian Law, the number is the lowest possible that is consistent with the mission of preventing the Palestinians from ever being able to launch a large scale attack like the Oct 7 massacre again.
 
We should NOT treat an estimate of 64,000 as reasonable if those presenting the data do not provide an explanation for how they arrived at 34, 995 of those estimated deaths.
Read the paper, it's explained in detail.
 
I have. It did not. Show me where in the paper where the "estimated not on any list" number came from.

The data has been under reported that's the answer:

We estimated around 64000 deaths due to traumatic injuries from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024, implying 41% under-reporting in the MoH estimate over the same period and corresponding to approximately 2·9% of Gaza’s projected pre-war population (2227000), or approximately one in 35 inhabitants. Although we only analysed data up to June, 2024, the official MoH estimate from Oct 7, 2023, to Oct 6, 2024, was 41909. Assuming that the level of underreporting of 41% continued from July to October, 2024, it is plausible that the true figure now exceeds 70000.

What is your estimate? what analysis have you done of the data?
 
They did, of course they did, you just didn't look very hard.

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This was six months ago too, all deaths since June are not included.

To think that the Palestinians spend precious time making up false death claims is beyond absurd, these people are being slaughtered 24/7 have little food, water or medicines. They are living under plastic sheets in the pissing rain with no sanitation and their hospitals are being raided and doctors even taken hostage.

Nobody in those circumstances is going to make up claims and nobody should believe the Zionist regime.
And yet the Palestinians refuse to end this war, they started and cannot win, by releasing the hostages and disarming.
 
Their results are purely speculative, but beyond that, the number of civilian casualties among the Palestinians is irrelevant, since as long as Israel continues to follow the rules of International Humanitarian Law, the number is the lowest possible that is consistent with the mission of preventing the Palestinians from ever being able to launch a large scale attack like the Oct 7 massacre again.
There are arrest warrants active from the ICC for war crimes. It is your claim that "Israel continues to follow the rules of International Humanitarian Law" that is speculative and I'm being kind when I use that term.
 
And yet the Palestinians refuse to end this war, they started and cannot win, by releasing the hostages and disarming.
It cannot end while the Zionist regime and its racist institutions exist. It generates Palestinian violence, it creates the violence by the brutal provocation that has become part of Israeli culture since at least 1919.
 
Yeah. Right. So either you didn't read the report, or you did and can't find the answer to my question either.
Email the authors with your question, is that too hard to do? Then share their answer here for all to see.
Well, let's say I estimate 5, 623, all Hamas operatives. Would you accept that?
What is your estimate of the total number of casualties?
 
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Here, I use GitHub every day myself, here's the data:

 
There are arrest warrants active from the ICC for war crimes. It is your claim that "Israel continues to follow the rules of International Humanitarian Law" that is speculative and I'm being kind when I use that term.
That Israel has followed International Humanitarian Law from the beginning of the ground campaign to the present is a fact acknowledged by the journalists such as CNN who follow the IDF and observe that no IDF general can order an attack that might endanger civilians until lawyers certify it complies with IHL. The ICC has made itself irrelevant with its ridiculous warrants.
 
That Israel has followed International Humanitarian Law from the beginning of the ground campaign to the present is a fact acknowledged by the journalists such as CNN who follow the IDF and observe that no IDF general can order an attack that might endanger civilians until lawyers certify it complies with IHL. The ICC has made itself irrelevant with its ridiculous warrants.
The ICC arrest warrants exist though, they are real whether you approve of them or not doesn't change reality.
 
There are arrest warrants active from the ICC for war crimes. It is your claim that "Israel continues to follow the rules of International Humanitarian Law" that is speculative and I'm being kind when I use that term.
UN groups took part in the attack on Oct 7

They and their court can pound sand.

Screw them.
 
The ICC arrest warrants exist though, they are real whether you approve of them or not doesn't change reality.
They are just muzzie terrorist lovers like you.

Fire over 5000 rockets a year at Israel. Israel is too nice.
 
It cannot end while the Zionist regime and its racist institutions exist. It generates Palestinian violence, it creates the violence by the brutal provocation that has become part of Israeli culture since at least 1919.
So what you are saying is that you prefer to see Palestinians suffer and die in a war they cannot win than live in peace with Israel.
 

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