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"When I first got here, we were seeing somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000 foreign fighters entering the fight. Now that we've been fighting this enemy for a year, our estimates are down to around 200" in both Iraq and Syria, Air Force Maj. Gen. Peter Gersten said from Baghdad during a teleconference. "We're actually seeing an increase in the desertion rates in these fighters. We're seeing a fracture in their morale. We're seeing their inability to pay."
Gersten said the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State has focused on destroying banks, bulk cash facilities and oil refineries. In total, Gersten said estimates demonstrate the Islamic State has lost from $300 million to $800 million in the U.S.-coalition attacks. "Their ability to keep track of their taxes ... and to oppress their people has been destroyed," Gersten said, adding that one airstrike operation destroyed a bulk cash facility that held an estimated $150 million.
Gersten said the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh, has been severely demoralized amid the coalition's efforts led on the ground in Iraq by the Iraqi security forces and in Syria by rebel groups, including the Kurdish Peshmerga. "We're seeing the morale of the enemy beginning to deteriorate at a fairly increasing rate. As we went further out to the Euphrates River Valley, we saw Daesh trying to defect coming into playing themselves as refugees, playing themselves dressed as women. That's the kind of cowardice we're dealing with," Gersten said. "We are seeing ... that Daesh cannot pay their foreign fighters. They are trading vehicles now for pay. Some fighters aren't being paid at all is what we're seeing. We see them generally digging ... into the fabric of society and wrap themselves around civilians because that's the kind of cancer they are."
Islamic State can't afford to recruit foreign fighters anymore
For months, U.S. military officials have been touting IS's territorial losses — up to 40 percent of the land it once controlled in Iraq and upward of 10 percent of the areas it held in Syria. But military and intelligence officials now say the bombing campaign, along with pressure from U.S. partners on the ground, is eating away at IS's ability to send forces into the fight. "ISIL is at its weakest point since its rapid expansion in 2014," a U.S. intelligence official told VOA on condition of anonymity, using an acronym for the terror group. "The flow of foreign terrorist fighters to Syria and Iraq has been reduced," the official said. "Consequently, ISIL is no longer able to replenish its ranks at the rate its fighters are dying on the ground."
Tipping point reached
Just a year ago, senior military officials said IS was bringing in as many as 1,000 foreign fighters a month. "They've been able to continue to recruit at the rate we kill them," one such official told VOA at the time. "That has drastically dropped off," Maj. Gen. Peter Gersten, deputy commander for operations and intelligence for Operation Inherent Resolve, told Pentagon reporters during a video briefing Tuesday. "Our estimates are down to around 200 [a month]." The Pentagon this week also reaffirmed U.S. intelligence estimates that the total number of fighters IS can muster in Iraq and Syria is now in the range of 19,000 to 25,000, down from earlier, high-end estimates of up to 32,000. "We're seeing a fracture in their morale," Gersten said, pointing to increases in IS desertion rates.
'Still in the fight'
Yet despite the growing optimism, there are persistent concerns about underestimating the terror organization's capabilities and staying power. Contrary to some military assessments, U.S. intelligence officials have said they believe IS is not being forced to turn to child soldiers and is still "largely dependent" on foreign fighters and recruits from areas the group controls. "There's no doubt that they've taken losses, but there's no doubt they're still in the fight," said Thomas Joscelyn, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and senior editor of The Long War Journal.
People gather in the aftermath of a multiple explosive attack in the Sayyida Zeinab area, 10 kilometers south of Damascus, Syria, Feb. 21, 2016. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for a triple blast in the Shi'ite suburb.
Joscelyn is one of a number of analysts who has consistently been skeptical of official U.S. estimates for the size of the IS force, pointing to Washington's own estimates of the number of IS fighters killed in airstrikes — about 25,000 — as reason to be wary. "You're saying they've basically replaced their entire fighting force," he said. "That's hard to believe given that ISIS is still an effective fighting force on so many battlefronts." Per Joscelyn's own estimates, at its peak, IS possibly had as many as 50,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria. And he said recent claims by the group's Amaq News Agency that it launched 287 suicide or "martyrdom operations" in the first three months of 2016 "implies that they have quite a roster of available martyrs."
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