Is Susan Collins about to lose her Senate seat?

pyetro

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Senator Susan Collins is trailing her Sarah Gideon by 9% according to the latest poll. Link at the end.
Why is Collins at high risk of losing? She votes with the toxic Trump 67% of the time in a state where Trump got 45% on 2016.
Republicans can't afford to lose Maine. Collins has been there since 1996.
 

citygator

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That’s great news. There is a small chance the Dems win enough to be 50/50 in the senate. Small but possible.
 

kyzr

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
How was 2018?
2018 was a typical mid-term election, and that was during the Mueller Investigation when the MSM was calling Trump a "Putin asset" and publishing 95% negative "fake news" about Trump 24/7.

We'll see in November when Trump is on the ballot. Those (31) democrats who won in Trump districts are toast, and the GOP only needs to flip (17) seats to take the House back. So enjoy 2020....
 
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Bruce_T_Laney

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
How was 2018?
How was 2010?

My point?

Simple, in 2010 Democrats lost the House just like the Republicans did in 2018 but in 2012 Obama won a Second Term and it is possible that Trump win a second term in 2020.

As for Collins it is possible she loses her seat but she has had tough fights before, so it is still the end of May and she can still surprise and win her seat again...
 

kyzr

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
Do you think Collins will be reelected?
Yes I think Collins will be re-elected. She always has close elections, and always wins. I'll be surprised if 2020 is any different. The democrats ALWAYS overplay the polling and underestimate the Trump "stealth vote".
 

citygator

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
How was 2018?
How was 2010?

My point?

Simple, in 2010 Democrats lost the House just like the Republicans did in 2018 but in 2012 Obama won a Second Term and it is possible that Trump win a second term in 2020.

As for Collins it is possible she loses her seat but she has had tough fights before, so it is still the end of May and she can still surprise and win her seat again...
I never said a Trump win wasn’t possible. Unlikely in my opinion but not impossible. Susan is getting her ass handed to her in a popular vote. There is no electoral scenarios that help out a senator. She is at the mercy of the popular vote. Novel isn’t it?

There are 4 other seats in play with it possibly leaning 3 dems and 1 pub. That’s 50/50. A lot can still happen obviously.
 

kyzr

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
How was 2018?
How was 2010?

My point?

Simple, in 2010 Democrats lost the House just like the Republicans did in 2018 but in 2012 Obama won a Second Term and it is possible that Trump win a second term in 2020.

As for Collins it is possible she loses her seat but she has had tough fights before, so it is still the end of May and she can still surprise and win her seat again...
I never said a Trump win wasn’t possible. Unlikely in my opinion but not impossible. Susan is getting her ass handed to her in a popular vote. There is no electoral scenarios that help out a senator. She is at the mercy of the popular vote. Novel isn’t it?

There are 4 other seats in play with it leaning 3 dems and 1 pub. That’s 50/50. A lot can still happen obviously.
Ahem, don't forget poor Doug Jones in AL. That's a GOP seat, so the math starts at 54-46.
The dems' "best case" is 3-1 in toss-ups, so it looks like the Senate stays GOP, and RBG won't last and neither will Breyer, and Thomas could retire any day setting up a conservative USSC for a generation or two.
(Tillis, Collins, McSally, and Gardner are "toss-ups")
 

citygator

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Polls? I have fond memories about the 2016 polls....
How was 2018?
How was 2010?

My point?

Simple, in 2010 Democrats lost the House just like the Republicans did in 2018 but in 2012 Obama won a Second Term and it is possible that Trump win a second term in 2020.

As for Collins it is possible she loses her seat but she has had tough fights before, so it is still the end of May and she can still surprise and win her seat again...
I never said a Trump win wasn’t possible. Unlikely in my opinion but not impossible. Susan is getting her ass handed to her in a popular vote. There is no electoral scenarios that help out a senator. She is at the mercy of the popular vote. Novel isn’t it?

There are 4 other seats in play with it leaning 3 dems and 1 pub. That’s 50/50. A lot can still happen obviously.
Ahem, don't forget poor Doug Jones in AL. That's a GOP seat, so the math starts at 54-46.
The dems' "best case" is 3-1 in toss-ups, so it looks like the Senate stays GOP, and RBG won't last and neither will Breyer, and Thomas could retire any day setting up a conservative USSC for a generation or two.
Agree, that’s the one. I said 4 “other” seats which is 5 total. I counted Susan as a loss and 3-1 best case scenario on the other 4. That’s 4-1 which Is 50/50. Slim chance I agree but possible. You can’t look at the polls and think Trump has a chance if you don’t look at the same polls and think Dems have a chance of 50/50.

Wasn’t about the court but all RGB needs to outlast is Trump. If the court is 4/4 for 2 years then the next wave is not set up well for pubs. Lots of seats up.
 

gipper

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Senator Susan Collins is trailing her Sarah Gideon by 9% according to the latest poll. Link at the end.
Why is Collins at high risk of losing? She votes with the toxic Trump 67% of the time in a state where Trump got 45% on 2016.
Republicans can't afford to lose Maine. Collins has been there since 1996.
She’s been in office for 23 years. It’s time to retire to her gold plated pension.
 

rightwinger

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That’s great news. There is a small chance the Dems win enough to be 50/50 in the senate. Small but possible.
Collins is struggling. Her flip flopping on Kavanaugh and her impeachment vote did not help. Trump has not been good for her.

Dems are also looking good in Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina but will give up their Alabama seat
 
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eddiew

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Senator Susan Collins is trailing her Sarah Gideon by 9% according to the latest poll. Link at the end.
Why is Collins at high risk of losing? She votes with the toxic Trump 67% of the time in a state where Trump got 45% on 2016.
Republicans can't afford to lose Maine. Collins has been there since 1996.
Daughter lives and works in Maine Tells me all people she knows despise the 2 faced Collins
 

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