Is NATO a Viable Military Organization?

Second - we need the Credible First Strike Capability, which depends on our possibility to counter their retaliation strike. (Detterence Type II).

We have the ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy.
No need to worry about that
No. Ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy in the normal situation does not mean possibility to achieve all those goals:
1) to destroy significant part of their strategic and tactical nukes to minimize their retaliation strike to the acceptable level;
2) kill at least 30 millions of Russians and 100 millions of Chineses in situation when their cities are particularly evacuated and population is sheltered;
3) destroy their recuperation potential, including conventional military forces and storage facilities.

All of this US Forces must be able to do in the situation of their active counteractions, including sabotage, espionage, active ABD, erzatz-ABD, etc...

I'm pretty sure, that right now the USA, isn't even at half-way to such possibility (even if we are talking only about Russia and China, not the whole Shanghai Pact).
You’re really funny, delusional, but funny. Exactly where do you think Russia and China are going to evacuate those tens or hundreds of millions of civilians to ride out a nuclear war?
Good question. Russian analog of FEMA - MChS, have roughly 300 thousands of men and women, nearly 38 times more than FEMAFEMA (for the much lesser population), there are NCB-protection troops, there are deputies of chiefs for emergency situations at any significant businesses, who create and twice a year clarify plans of evacuation (for different circumstances), there are plans for police, National Guard, there are school programs of Security, Safety and Survivalnce (more advanced and militarized version of Health and Life Safety) and Initial Military Trainings, etc... The Russians take it really serious. China in 2019 started reforms of their Civil Defense based at the Russian system.


What will they eat and drink afterwards?
They have the Federal Agency of State Reserves, there are enough of food to feed all Russians for three years.
What is even more important - they have the Army, and rich and defenseless neighbours to blackmail or simply rob them.


Nuclear war is unsurvivable and any US president who allowed a attack on the USA without retaliation would be torn limb from limb instead of merely being impeached.
Nuclear war is survivable and even winnable, but only if you are well prepared for it. Russia is prepared. China is increasing its readiness. The US politicians prefer to ignore the problem.
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.
Russia faces mutually assured destruction, just like they always have. Is Putin willing to take the risk just to annex Ukraine?
"Mutually assured destruction" is a myth, you know. Good combination of EW, sudden counterforce attack, ABD and erzatz-ABD, evacuation of cities, civil defense and post-attack blackmail can decrease losses to pretty acceptable. They are going to lose two, may be three million of citizens, but they will get twenty or thirty millions of new citizens in Ukraine. What is even more important, they definitely won't stop in Ukraine. Possible loses are great, but the potential prize is literally enormous... May be, even the world domination.


Since joining NATO, the US has always committed to join in the defense of Europe. That has not changed
Really? If Americans are ready to die to protect Europeans, why don't they sell them COVID-vaccines? "F#$k the EU" as Victoria Nuland said.

World domination? That's just too funny. The Chinese won't let you do it.
The new postwar order will be created by the victorious powers, and based on the redistribution of wealth from losers. May be, there will be some sort of competition between Russia and China in the new world, may be even another Cold War with proxy conflicts, but more likely, process of the wealth redistribution will be rather peaceful (at least in the first post-war years).


Hell, Russia will be lucky if the Chinese don't annex Siberia. Millions of Chinese already own property, live and work in Siberia.
Actually, there are less than 34 thousands of Chineses in Russia, and more than half of them live in Moscow. If you was a young China man, what kind of career would you prefer - a farmer in Siberia, or a shop-owner in California? Or, if you was a demobilized Chinese soldier, what job would you choose: a lumberjack in Siberia, or a clerk in the occupation administration in California?

Although the Chinese are already taking much of what they need, annexing Siberia will give the Chinese a secure source of energy and natural resources much closer to home.
The Age of Oil is going to end. The Gas Respite won't be effective in the war time. The post-war world will be a Nuclear world. And the best source of Uranium for China will be Australia.

"But Russia's expansionist interests have met with an obstacle in the East: China does not look kindly on Russian activism, which risks creating obstacles to the Japanese economic growth projects. On the contrary, the Chinese themselves are beginning to have expansionist aims towards the West, to the detriment of the Russian territories: the slogan "Give us back Siberia" is becoming viral on Chinese social networks."
Bla-bla-bla... First of all, Siberia never was Chinese. Actually, it was China occupied by different waves of Northern Barbarians, and the last wave were Russians. That's why Communistic part of China, Vietnam and Northern Korea is often named as "Yellow Russia" (next in the line of "Great Russia" (now - Russian Federation), "Small Russia" (now - Ukraine), White Russia (now - Belarus), Black Russia (Poland and Lithuania), etc...
And yes, even now Russian cultural and political influence (ideologies of Communism and Eurasism) in China is really significant.


You really do like to spin the truth. China has never shared with Russia.
  • Russia had hoped to have China as an important client for it's military armaments - China bought a few copies, re-engineered them and produced their own knock-offs. Instead of being a client of Russia, China is now a competitor in the field of military arms sales.
  • Russia thought that China would buy Russian produced goods but the opposite is true - China exports virtually everything to Russia
  • Russia thought it would make energy sales an important facet of sales to China - China instead decided to build a pipeline to Kazakhstan and by-pass Moscow. The Siberian pipeline isn't projected to be profitable for Russia until 2030 or possibly never

"In a rare public display of frustration between Moscow and Beijing, Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec accused China of illegally copying a broad range of Russian weaponry and other military hardware."

""Unauthorized copying of our equipment abroad is a huge problem. There have been 500 such cases over the past 17 years," said Yevgeny Livadny, Rostec's chief of intellectual property projects on Dec. 14. "China alone has copied aircraft engines, Sukhoi planes, deck jets, air defense systems, portable air defense missiles, and analogs of the Pantsir medium-range surface-to-air systems.""



"By becoming the first major Central Asia gas export route to completely bypass Russia, the new pipeline will play a key role in wresting the former Soviet republics in the region out of Moscow’s economic sphere of influence."






2.5 million acres is a postage stamp! By comparison, Texas is 171 million acres.


That article reflected a Russia's desire to paint the increasing numbers of Chinese settling in eastern Russia as something Russia controls. It doesn't. China is moving people and businesses into Siberia in order to reclaim what they believe is rightfully theirs.

"Russia – 160,000 square km is still unilaterally claimed by China, despite China signing several agreements to pacify the disputed area."

Russia refuses to do a census in Siberia preferring to use outdated estimates. This is an older article (2000?) that explains why Russia sees the writing on the wall and can only pretend that it is managing the situation:

"Alexander Shaikin, in charge of controlling the Russian-Chinese border, said on June 29 that 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months."

The article cites a number of other estimates from different sources.

.
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.
Russia faces mutually assured destruction, just like they always have. Is Putin willing to take the risk just to annex Ukraine?
"Mutually assured destruction" is a myth, you know. Good combination of EW, sudden counterforce attack, ABD and erzatz-ABD, evacuation of cities, civil defense and post-attack blackmail can decrease losses to pretty acceptable. They are going to lose two, may be three million of citizens, but they will get twenty or thirty millions of new citizens in Ukraine. What is even more important, they definitely won't stop in Ukraine. Possible loses are great, but the potential prize is literally enormous... May be, even the world domination.


Since joining NATO, the US has always committed to join in the defense of Europe. That has not changed
Really? If Americans are ready to die to protect Europeans, why don't they sell them COVID-vaccines? "F#$k the EU" as Victoria Nuland said.

World domination? That's just too funny. The Chinese won't let you do it.
The new postwar order will be created by the victorious powers, and based on the redistribution of wealth from losers. May be, there will be some sort of competition between Russia and China in the new world, may be even another Cold War with proxy conflicts, but more likely, process of the wealth redistribution will be rather peaceful (at least in the first post-war years).


Hell, Russia will be lucky if the Chinese don't annex Siberia. Millions of Chinese already own property, live and work in Siberia.
Actually, there are less than 34 thousands of Chineses in Russia, and more than half of them live in Moscow. If you was a young China man, what kind of career would you prefer - a farmer in Siberia, or a shop-owner in California? Or, if you was a demobilized Chinese soldier, what job would you choose: a lumberjack in Siberia, or a clerk in the occupation administration in California?

Although the Chinese are already taking much of what they need, annexing Siberia will give the Chinese a secure source of energy and natural resources much closer to home.
The Age of Oil is going to end. The Gas Respite won't be effective in the war time. The post-war world will be a Nuclear world. And the best source of Uranium for China will be Australia.

"But Russia's expansionist interests have met with an obstacle in the East: China does not look kindly on Russian activism, which risks creating obstacles to the Japanese economic growth projects. On the contrary, the Chinese themselves are beginning to have expansionist aims towards the West, to the detriment of the Russian territories: the slogan "Give us back Siberia" is becoming viral on Chinese social networks."
Bla-bla-bla... First of all, Siberia never was Chinese. Actually, it was China occupied by different waves of Northern Barbarians, and the last wave were Russians. That's why Communistic part of China, Vietnam and Northern Korea is often named as "Yellow Russia" (next in the line of "Great Russia" (now - Russian Federation), "Small Russia" (now - Ukraine), White Russia (now - Belarus), Black Russia (Poland and Lithuania), etc...
And yes, even now Russian cultural and political influence (ideologies of Communism and Eurasism) in China is really significant.


You really do like to spin the truth. China has never shared with Russia.
  • Russia had hoped to have China as an important client for it's military armaments - China bought a few copies, re-engineered them and produced their own knock-offs. Instead of being a client of Russia, China is now a competitor in the field of military arms sales.
  • Russia thought that China would buy Russian produced goods but the opposite is true - China exports virtually everything to Russia
  • Russia thought it would make energy sales an important facet of sales to China - China instead decided to build a pipeline to Kazakhstan and by-pass Moscow. The Siberian pipeline isn't projected to be profitable for Russia until 2030 or possibly never

"In a rare public display of frustration between Moscow and Beijing, Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec accused China of illegally copying a broad range of Russian weaponry and other military hardware."

""Unauthorized copying of our equipment abroad is a huge problem. There have been 500 such cases over the past 17 years," said Yevgeny Livadny, Rostec's chief of intellectual property projects on Dec. 14. "China alone has copied aircraft engines, Sukhoi planes, deck jets, air defense systems, portable air defense missiles, and analogs of the Pantsir medium-range surface-to-air systems.""



"By becoming the first major Central Asia gas export route to completely bypass Russia, the new pipeline will play a key role in wresting the former Soviet republics in the region out of Moscow’s economic sphere of influence."






2.5 million acres is a postage stamp! By comparison, Texas is 171 million acres.


That article reflected a Russia's desire to paint the increasing numbers of Chinese settling in eastern Russia as something Russia controls. It doesn't. China is moving people and businesses into Siberia in order to reclaim what they believe is rightfully theirs.

"Russia – 160,000 square km is still unilaterally claimed by China, despite China signing several agreements to pacify the disputed area."

Russia refuses to do a census in Siberia preferring to use outdated estimates. This is an older article (2000?) that explains why Russia sees the writing on the wall and can only pretend that it is managing the situation:

"Alexander Shaikin, in charge of controlling the Russian-Chinese border, said on June 29 that 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months."

The article cites a number of other estimates from different sources.

.

Did you read this article? 1,5 millions of illegal migrants in the Far East? Twice more, than the whole population of Alaska? It is definitely impossible. According official Russian statistics, Chinese population in Russia is decreasing.
There were 34 577 of them in 2002, and 28 943 in 2010, more than half of them - in Moscow. There are 15 thousands of ethnic Russians (and a small number of legal and illegal working migrants) living in China, and it is not a problem, too...
Watch any video from Khabarovsk or any other Far East city.
For example:

How many Chinese faces had you noticed?
 
Last edited:

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.
Russia faces mutually assured destruction, just like they always have. Is Putin willing to take the risk just to annex Ukraine?
"Mutually assured destruction" is a myth, you know. Good combination of EW, sudden counterforce attack, ABD and erzatz-ABD, evacuation of cities, civil defense and post-attack blackmail can decrease losses to pretty acceptable. They are going to lose two, may be three million of citizens, but they will get twenty or thirty millions of new citizens in Ukraine. What is even more important, they definitely won't stop in Ukraine. Possible loses are great, but the potential prize is literally enormous... May be, even the world domination.


Since joining NATO, the US has always committed to join in the defense of Europe. That has not changed
Really? If Americans are ready to die to protect Europeans, why don't they sell them COVID-vaccines? "F#$k the EU" as Victoria Nuland said.

World domination? That's just too funny. The Chinese won't let you do it.
The new postwar order will be created by the victorious powers, and based on the redistribution of wealth from losers. May be, there will be some sort of competition between Russia and China in the new world, may be even another Cold War with proxy conflicts, but more likely, process of the wealth redistribution will be rather peaceful (at least in the first post-war years).


Hell, Russia will be lucky if the Chinese don't annex Siberia. Millions of Chinese already own property, live and work in Siberia.
Actually, there are less than 34 thousands of Chineses in Russia, and more than half of them live in Moscow. If you was a young China man, what kind of career would you prefer - a farmer in Siberia, or a shop-owner in California? Or, if you was a demobilized Chinese soldier, what job would you choose: a lumberjack in Siberia, or a clerk in the occupation administration in California?

Although the Chinese are already taking much of what they need, annexing Siberia will give the Chinese a secure source of energy and natural resources much closer to home.
The Age of Oil is going to end. The Gas Respite won't be effective in the war time. The post-war world will be a Nuclear world. And the best source of Uranium for China will be Australia.

"But Russia's expansionist interests have met with an obstacle in the East: China does not look kindly on Russian activism, which risks creating obstacles to the Japanese economic growth projects. On the contrary, the Chinese themselves are beginning to have expansionist aims towards the West, to the detriment of the Russian territories: the slogan "Give us back Siberia" is becoming viral on Chinese social networks."
Bla-bla-bla... First of all, Siberia never was Chinese. Actually, it was China occupied by different waves of Northern Barbarians, and the last wave were Russians. That's why Communistic part of China, Vietnam and Northern Korea is often named as "Yellow Russia" (next in the line of "Great Russia" (now - Russian Federation), "Small Russia" (now - Ukraine), White Russia (now - Belarus), Black Russia (Poland and Lithuania), etc...
And yes, even now Russian cultural and political influence (ideologies of Communism and Eurasism) in China is really significant.


You really do like to spin the truth. China has never shared with Russia.
  • Russia had hoped to have China as an important client for it's military armaments - China bought a few copies, re-engineered them and produced their own knock-offs. Instead of being a client of Russia, China is now a competitor in the field of military arms sales.
  • Russia thought that China would buy Russian produced goods but the opposite is true - China exports virtually everything to Russia
  • Russia thought it would make energy sales an important facet of sales to China - China instead decided to build a pipeline to Kazakhstan and by-pass Moscow. The Siberian pipeline isn't projected to be profitable for Russia until 2030 or possibly never

"In a rare public display of frustration between Moscow and Beijing, Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec accused China of illegally copying a broad range of Russian weaponry and other military hardware."

""Unauthorized copying of our equipment abroad is a huge problem. There have been 500 such cases over the past 17 years," said Yevgeny Livadny, Rostec's chief of intellectual property projects on Dec. 14. "China alone has copied aircraft engines, Sukhoi planes, deck jets, air defense systems, portable air defense missiles, and analogs of the Pantsir medium-range surface-to-air systems.""



"By becoming the first major Central Asia gas export route to completely bypass Russia, the new pipeline will play a key role in wresting the former Soviet republics in the region out of Moscow’s economic sphere of influence."






2.5 million acres is a postage stamp! By comparison, Texas is 171 million acres.


That article reflected a Russia's desire to paint the increasing numbers of Chinese settling in eastern Russia as something Russia controls. It doesn't. China is moving people and businesses into Siberia in order to reclaim what they believe is rightfully theirs.

"Russia – 160,000 square km is still unilaterally claimed by China, despite China signing several agreements to pacify the disputed area."

Russia refuses to do a census in Siberia preferring to use outdated estimates. This is an older article (2000?) that explains why Russia sees the writing on the wall and can only pretend that it is managing the situation:

"Alexander Shaikin, in charge of controlling the Russian-Chinese border, said on June 29 that 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months."

The article cites a number of other estimates from different sources.

.


I think it is hilarious that none of these sources get anything right. This so called Chinese incursion of 64 hectares into India/Nepal consist of an area the size of my neighborhood. Wow! They should declare war!
 
And yes, Russian cultural and military influence in China is much more significant than Chinese one in Russia.
Chinese First Lady sing a Russian song for Russian soldiers:
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.
Russia faces mutually assured destruction, just like they always have. Is Putin willing to take the risk just to annex Ukraine?
"Mutually assured destruction" is a myth, you know. Good combination of EW, sudden counterforce attack, ABD and erzatz-ABD, evacuation of cities, civil defense and post-attack blackmail can decrease losses to pretty acceptable. They are going to lose two, may be three million of citizens, but they will get twenty or thirty millions of new citizens in Ukraine. What is even more important, they definitely won't stop in Ukraine. Possible loses are great, but the potential prize is literally enormous... May be, even the world domination.


Since joining NATO, the US has always committed to join in the defense of Europe. That has not changed
Really? If Americans are ready to die to protect Europeans, why don't they sell them COVID-vaccines? "F#$k the EU" as Victoria Nuland said.

World domination? That's just too funny. The Chinese won't let you do it.
The new postwar order will be created by the victorious powers, and based on the redistribution of wealth from losers. May be, there will be some sort of competition between Russia and China in the new world, may be even another Cold War with proxy conflicts, but more likely, process of the wealth redistribution will be rather peaceful (at least in the first post-war years).


Hell, Russia will be lucky if the Chinese don't annex Siberia. Millions of Chinese already own property, live and work in Siberia.
Actually, there are less than 34 thousands of Chineses in Russia, and more than half of them live in Moscow. If you was a young China man, what kind of career would you prefer - a farmer in Siberia, or a shop-owner in California? Or, if you was a demobilized Chinese soldier, what job would you choose: a lumberjack in Siberia, or a clerk in the occupation administration in California?

Although the Chinese are already taking much of what they need, annexing Siberia will give the Chinese a secure source of energy and natural resources much closer to home.
The Age of Oil is going to end. The Gas Respite won't be effective in the war time. The post-war world will be a Nuclear world. And the best source of Uranium for China will be Australia.

"But Russia's expansionist interests have met with an obstacle in the East: China does not look kindly on Russian activism, which risks creating obstacles to the Japanese economic growth projects. On the contrary, the Chinese themselves are beginning to have expansionist aims towards the West, to the detriment of the Russian territories: the slogan "Give us back Siberia" is becoming viral on Chinese social networks."
Bla-bla-bla... First of all, Siberia never was Chinese. Actually, it was China occupied by different waves of Northern Barbarians, and the last wave were Russians. That's why Communistic part of China, Vietnam and Northern Korea is often named as "Yellow Russia" (next in the line of "Great Russia" (now - Russian Federation), "Small Russia" (now - Ukraine), White Russia (now - Belarus), Black Russia (Poland and Lithuania), etc...
And yes, even now Russian cultural and political influence (ideologies of Communism and Eurasism) in China is really significant.


You really do like to spin the truth. China has never shared with Russia.
  • Russia had hoped to have China as an important client for it's military armaments - China bought a few copies, re-engineered them and produced their own knock-offs. Instead of being a client of Russia, China is now a competitor in the field of military arms sales.
  • Russia thought that China would buy Russian produced goods but the opposite is true - China exports virtually everything to Russia
  • Russia thought it would make energy sales an important facet of sales to China - China instead decided to build a pipeline to Kazakhstan and by-pass Moscow. The Siberian pipeline isn't projected to be profitable for Russia until 2030 or possibly never

"In a rare public display of frustration between Moscow and Beijing, Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec accused China of illegally copying a broad range of Russian weaponry and other military hardware."

""Unauthorized copying of our equipment abroad is a huge problem. There have been 500 such cases over the past 17 years," said Yevgeny Livadny, Rostec's chief of intellectual property projects on Dec. 14. "China alone has copied aircraft engines, Sukhoi planes, deck jets, air defense systems, portable air defense missiles, and analogs of the Pantsir medium-range surface-to-air systems.""



"By becoming the first major Central Asia gas export route to completely bypass Russia, the new pipeline will play a key role in wresting the former Soviet republics in the region out of Moscow’s economic sphere of influence."






2.5 million acres is a postage stamp! By comparison, Texas is 171 million acres.


That article reflected a Russia's desire to paint the increasing numbers of Chinese settling in eastern Russia as something Russia controls. It doesn't. China is moving people and businesses into Siberia in order to reclaim what they believe is rightfully theirs.

"Russia – 160,000 square km is still unilaterally claimed by China, despite China signing several agreements to pacify the disputed area."

Russia refuses to do a census in Siberia preferring to use outdated estimates. This is an older article (2000?) that explains why Russia sees the writing on the wall and can only pretend that it is managing the situation:

"Alexander Shaikin, in charge of controlling the Russian-Chinese border, said on June 29 that 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months."

The article cites a number of other estimates from different sources.

.


I think it is hilarious that none of these sources get anything right. This so called Chinese incursion of 64 hectares into India/Nepal consist of an area the size of my neighborhood. Wow! They should declare war!


I'm talking about China's ambition regarding eastern Russia which they feel belongs to them and whose energy and natural resources they covet.

"This is all low key, but China meticulously advances its claims with references to history and, also, with little fanfare at first. The Chinese invented the long game. They will try to partner with Moscow against Washington, and when that is no longer necessary, they will raise the profile of their territorial claims in the Russian Far East. Thus far the Russians have not reacted, but this is certainly on their radar screen."


.
 
Last edited:

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.
Russia faces mutually assured destruction, just like they always have. Is Putin willing to take the risk just to annex Ukraine?
"Mutually assured destruction" is a myth, you know. Good combination of EW, sudden counterforce attack, ABD and erzatz-ABD, evacuation of cities, civil defense and post-attack blackmail can decrease losses to pretty acceptable. They are going to lose two, may be three million of citizens, but they will get twenty or thirty millions of new citizens in Ukraine. What is even more important, they definitely won't stop in Ukraine. Possible loses are great, but the potential prize is literally enormous... May be, even the world domination.


Since joining NATO, the US has always committed to join in the defense of Europe. That has not changed
Really? If Americans are ready to die to protect Europeans, why don't they sell them COVID-vaccines? "F#$k the EU" as Victoria Nuland said.

World domination? That's just too funny. The Chinese won't let you do it.
The new postwar order will be created by the victorious powers, and based on the redistribution of wealth from losers. May be, there will be some sort of competition between Russia and China in the new world, may be even another Cold War with proxy conflicts, but more likely, process of the wealth redistribution will be rather peaceful (at least in the first post-war years).


Hell, Russia will be lucky if the Chinese don't annex Siberia. Millions of Chinese already own property, live and work in Siberia.
Actually, there are less than 34 thousands of Chineses in Russia, and more than half of them live in Moscow. If you was a young China man, what kind of career would you prefer - a farmer in Siberia, or a shop-owner in California? Or, if you was a demobilized Chinese soldier, what job would you choose: a lumberjack in Siberia, or a clerk in the occupation administration in California?

Although the Chinese are already taking much of what they need, annexing Siberia will give the Chinese a secure source of energy and natural resources much closer to home.
The Age of Oil is going to end. The Gas Respite won't be effective in the war time. The post-war world will be a Nuclear world. And the best source of Uranium for China will be Australia.

"But Russia's expansionist interests have met with an obstacle in the East: China does not look kindly on Russian activism, which risks creating obstacles to the Japanese economic growth projects. On the contrary, the Chinese themselves are beginning to have expansionist aims towards the West, to the detriment of the Russian territories: the slogan "Give us back Siberia" is becoming viral on Chinese social networks."
Bla-bla-bla... First of all, Siberia never was Chinese. Actually, it was China occupied by different waves of Northern Barbarians, and the last wave were Russians. That's why Communistic part of China, Vietnam and Northern Korea is often named as "Yellow Russia" (next in the line of "Great Russia" (now - Russian Federation), "Small Russia" (now - Ukraine), White Russia (now - Belarus), Black Russia (Poland and Lithuania), etc...
And yes, even now Russian cultural and political influence (ideologies of Communism and Eurasism) in China is really significant.


You really do like to spin the truth. China has never shared with Russia.
  • Russia had hoped to have China as an important client for it's military armaments - China bought a few copies, re-engineered them and produced their own knock-offs. Instead of being a client of Russia, China is now a competitor in the field of military arms sales.
  • Russia thought that China would buy Russian produced goods but the opposite is true - China exports virtually everything to Russia
  • Russia thought it would make energy sales an important facet of sales to China - China instead decided to build a pipeline to Kazakhstan and by-pass Moscow. The Siberian pipeline isn't projected to be profitable for Russia until 2030 or possibly never

"In a rare public display of frustration between Moscow and Beijing, Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec accused China of illegally copying a broad range of Russian weaponry and other military hardware."

""Unauthorized copying of our equipment abroad is a huge problem. There have been 500 such cases over the past 17 years," said Yevgeny Livadny, Rostec's chief of intellectual property projects on Dec. 14. "China alone has copied aircraft engines, Sukhoi planes, deck jets, air defense systems, portable air defense missiles, and analogs of the Pantsir medium-range surface-to-air systems.""



"By becoming the first major Central Asia gas export route to completely bypass Russia, the new pipeline will play a key role in wresting the former Soviet republics in the region out of Moscow’s economic sphere of influence."






2.5 million acres is a postage stamp! By comparison, Texas is 171 million acres.


That article reflected a Russia's desire to paint the increasing numbers of Chinese settling in eastern Russia as something Russia controls. It doesn't. China is moving people and businesses into Siberia in order to reclaim what they believe is rightfully theirs.

"Russia – 160,000 square km is still unilaterally claimed by China, despite China signing several agreements to pacify the disputed area."

Russia refuses to do a census in Siberia preferring to use outdated estimates. This is an older article (2000?) that explains why Russia sees the writing on the wall and can only pretend that it is managing the situation:

"Alexander Shaikin, in charge of controlling the Russian-Chinese border, said on June 29 that 1.5 million people from China have illegally entered the Russian Far East over the past 18 months."

The article cites a number of other estimates from different sources.

.


I think it is hilarious that none of these sources get anything right. This so called Chinese incursion of 64 hectares into India/Nepal consist of an area the size of my neighborhood. Wow! They should declare war!


I'm talking about China's ambition regarding eastern Russia which they feel belongs to them and whose energy and natural resources they covet.

"This is all low key, but China meticulously advances its claims with references to history and, also, with little fanfare at first. The Chinese invented the long game. They will try to partner with Moscow against Washington, and when that is no longer necessary, they will raise the profile of their territorial claims in the Russian Far East. Thus far the Russians have not reacted, but this is certainly on their radar screen."


.

And I think, that Shanghai Pact is the immediate menace. I can't care less about who will prevail in the Post War World (Russia or China) if the USA will be divided and occupied in WWIII.
 
Second - we need the Credible First Strike Capability, which depends on our possibility to counter their retaliation strike. (Detterence Type II).

We have the ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy.
No need to worry about that
No. Ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy in the normal situation does not mean possibility to achieve all those goals:
1) to destroy significant part of their strategic and tactical nukes to minimize their retaliation strike to the acceptable level;
2) kill at least 30 millions of Russians and 100 millions of Chineses in situation when their cities are particularly evacuated and population is sheltered;
3) destroy their recuperation potential, including conventional military forces and storage facilities.

All of this US Forces must be able to do in the situation of their active counteractions, including sabotage, espionage, active ABD, erzatz-ABD, etc...

I'm pretty sure, that right now the USA, isn't even at half-way to such possibility (even if we are talking only about Russia and China, not the whole Shanghai Pact).
You’re really funny, delusional, but funny. Exactly where do you think Russia and China are going to evacuate those tens or hundreds of millions of civilians to ride out a nuclear war?
Good question. Russian analog of FEMA - MChS, have roughly 300 thousands of men and women, nearly 38 times more than FEMAFEMA (for the much lesser population), there are NCB-protection troops, there are deputies of chiefs for emergency situations at any significant businesses, who create and twice a year clarify plans of evacuation (for different circumstances), there are plans for police, National Guard, there are school programs of Security, Safety and Survivalnce (more advanced and militarized version of Health and Life Safety) and Initial Military Trainings, etc... The Russians take it really serious. China in 2019 started reforms of their Civil Defense based at the Russian system.


What will they eat and drink afterwards?
They have the Federal Agency of State Reserves, there are enough of food to feed all Russians for three years.
What is even more important - they have the Army, and rich and defenseless neighbours to blackmail or simply rob them.


Nuclear war is unsurvivable and any US president who allowed a attack on the USA without retaliation would be torn limb from limb instead of merely being impeached.
Nuclear war is survivable and even winnable, but only if you are well prepared for it. Russia is prepared. China is increasing its readiness. The US politicians prefer to ignore the problem.
Again where are the massive shelters for the evacuees? You can't build something like that unnoticed and when noticed, those shelter would be added to target lists. The US has plenty of warheads to go around so even the food stockpiles would be on the target lists. You ae conditioned to listen to and believe government propaganda and you do. US policy is to retaliate massively to any potential nuclear attack and no president would violate that policy.
 
The idea that russia is a threat lol.
Vladimir Vladimirovich is only a threat to people who stand in his way. The problem with his kind is, like the frustrated little corporal before him, he'll never stop until he's FORCED to stop. The bastards that installed a weak puppet in DC may have set the stage for a global conflict.
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
..on paper only
In reality
During the Cold War we panicked over the threat of the USSR

When they fell in 1990, we found out they were a Paper Tiger. Their equipment was nowhere what we thought it was. It was poorly maintained and the troops were poorly trained, they were alcoholic and had bad morale.

Russia under Putin is even worse
You should read his biography. It's really interesting. Typical "short guy" temperament. He flexed his muscle in Georgia and was rewarded. He repeated it in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and sanctions haven't deterred him. He's moving very large numbers of armored vehicles and artillery to the region and threatening NATO if they send troops. If he's playing poker, it should sober a LOT of people up.
Conventional Russian military power is no match for the U.S. and that alone should tell you how dangerous this could be. His whole persona has always been about being the "strong man". Russians have a history of needing someone to tell them what to do and he fits that role. If he builds up and has to retreat it will ruin him.
The mere possibility of a miscalculation that leads to nuclear exchanges is WORTHY OF PANIC.
 
Second - we need the Credible First Strike Capability, which depends on our possibility to counter their retaliation strike. (Detterence Type II).

We have the ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy.
No need to worry about that
No. Ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy in the normal situation does not mean possibility to achieve all those goals:
1) to destroy significant part of their strategic and tactical nukes to minimize their retaliation strike to the acceptable level;
2) kill at least 30 millions of Russians and 100 millions of Chineses in situation when their cities are particularly evacuated and population is sheltered;
3) destroy their recuperation potential, including conventional military forces and storage facilities.

All of this US Forces must be able to do in the situation of their active counteractions, including sabotage, espionage, active ABD, erzatz-ABD, etc...

I'm pretty sure, that right now the USA, isn't even at half-way to such possibility (even if we are talking only about Russia and China, not the whole Shanghai Pact).
You’re really funny, delusional, but funny. Exactly where do you think Russia and China are going to evacuate those tens or hundreds of millions of civilians to ride out a nuclear war?
Good question. Russian analog of FEMA - MChS, have roughly 300 thousands of men and women, nearly 38 times more than FEMAFEMA (for the much lesser population), there are NCB-protection troops, there are deputies of chiefs for emergency situations at any significant businesses, who create and twice a year clarify plans of evacuation (for different circumstances), there are plans for police, National Guard, there are school programs of Security, Safety and Survivalnce (more advanced and militarized version of Health and Life Safety) and Initial Military Trainings, etc... The Russians take it really serious. China in 2019 started reforms of their Civil Defense based at the Russian system.


What will they eat and drink afterwards?
They have the Federal Agency of State Reserves, there are enough of food to feed all Russians for three years.
What is even more important - they have the Army, and rich and defenseless neighbours to blackmail or simply rob them.


Nuclear war is unsurvivable and any US president who allowed a attack on the USA without retaliation would be torn limb from limb instead of merely being impeached.
Nuclear war is survivable and even winnable, but only if you are well prepared for it. Russia is prepared. China is increasing its readiness. The US politicians prefer to ignore the problem.
Again where are the massive shelters for the evacuees? You can't build something like that unnoticed and when noticed, those shelter would be added to target lists.
Shelters are everywhere. It's a typical part of Russian urban infrastructure. Most of them are well known, but there are too many of them to put them in the target list. There enough of them even at YouTube.





The US has plenty of warheads to go around so even the food stockpiles would be on the target lists.
Definitely, no.
IMG_20210310_233826.jpg


You ae conditioned to listen to and believe government propaganda and you do. US policy is to retaliate massively to any potential nuclear attack and no president would violate that policy.
Ok. After the first Russian strike you still have, say, two, may be three (third supposed to survive, but still didn't confirme it - degraded communications, you know), with twenty Trident II SLBMs each (with 95% estimated reliability), with four 90kt W-76-1 each.
In the degraded GPS-environment they have to use astrocorrection and INS, and accuracy is roughly 200 m, which means that you hardly can hit a hardened target, like shelter, nuclear plant, or silo - only large, soft targets like cities.
Then, Ohio-class submarines can't launch all their missiles in one salvo (as more massive Soviets can do). Largest salvo ever tested - 4 missiles. Then you need, say, fifteen minutes, or, may be, even more to stabilise the submarine. If the Russian "Liana" satellites are still active - they have her position disclosed and can attack her with their ICBMs. So, you need to cover her with something, that can try to intercept incoming warheads, for example, SM-3 block IIA, or use tactic launch, dive, change position, launch. Neither of this was tested even at drills, but you, surely, can improvise.

And, may be, 100 B-61-3/4 bombs in Germany, but you are not sure, that the Germans (and other Europeans) will allow you to use them, and even if they agree - likely, 4-gen nonstealth fighters with gravity bombs are really useless against well-prepared Russians.

And yes, remember, Russians still have thousands of warheads and ready to start their counter-value strike (which can kill, say, 100 millions of Americans) and, may be, even chaotise the USA.

What is your choice?
 
You have guaranteed first launch 2x4x4 = 16 W-76-1 90kt warheads with 200 m accuracy. Choose you targets, but don't forget, that Moscow region is covered by a proper ABD which can intercept, say, 80 warheads. Other important targets are covered with ersatz-ABD, but you have a chance, say, to attack Vladivostok.
---------
Vladivostok is the largest Russian port on the Pacific Ocean, and the chief economic, scientific and cultural centre of the Russian Far East, as well as an important tourism centre in Russia. As the terminus of the Trans-Siberian Railway, the city was visited by over 3 million tourists in 2017.[12] The city is the administrative centre of the Far Eastern Federal District, and is the home to the headquarters of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Navy. For its unique geographical location, and its European culture, the city is called "Europe in Asia".[13][14] Many foreign consulates and businesses have offices in Vladivostok. With an annual mean temperature of around 5 °C (41 °F) Vladivostok has a cold climate for its mid-latitude coastal setting. This is due to winds from the vast Eurasian landmass in winter, also cooling the ocean temperatures.
----------

There are 812,319 residents in the urban agglomeration, most of them (especially children) are evacuated in different towns and villages of Primorski Krai. Most of other are already sheltered.

The city is covered by 93th Air Defence Division, with S-400 and S-300V4 complexes, but if you are lucky, one or two warheads (from 16) will destroy its port, kill roughly ten-twenty thousands of civilians.

Will you order this or you can suggest something better?
 
Oh, yes, don't forget. You are the POTUS, and five millions of your citizens are dead, fifteen millions are wounded, 200 millions are in panic, FEMA is trying (without visible success) to predict fallouts after one thousand of ground-level bursts and control evacuation of civilians.
You need to calm down your citizens, what will you say them?
"My Fellow Americans, many of you are dead, and many of you will die soon, because I believe this it is a price to pay, to allow Kievan Nazies to kill ethnic Russians in Donbass"

Don't you think, that after such a national address Kamala Harris will arrest you?
 
You should read his biography. It's really interesting. Typical "short guy" temperament. He flexed his muscle in Georgia and was rewarded. He repeated it in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and sanctions haven't deterred him. He's moving very large numbers of armored vehicles and artillery to the region and threatening NATO if they send troops. If he's playing poker, it should sober a LOT of people up
What he was rewarded in Georgia? Abkhazia and South Osetia had Russian troops since 1990s and were de facto independent from Georgia since then.

He had to give up the project of Novorossia in Ukraine under which virtually half of Ukraine would have been under a direct Russian influence.

Look at Nagorno-Karabakh. I doubt that Armenia's loosing was in Russian interest, but Russia had to accept that.
 
You should read his biography. It's really interesting. Typical "short guy" temperament. He flexed his muscle in Georgia and was rewarded. He repeated it in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and sanctions haven't deterred him. He's moving very large numbers of armored vehicles and artillery to the region and threatening NATO if they send troops. If he's playing poker, it should sober a LOT of people up
What he was rewarded in Georgia? Abkhazia and South Osetia had Russian troops since 1990s and were de facto independent from Georgia since then.
Increased influence on the South Caucas, and at least 10% in BTE pipeline.

He had to give up the project of Novorossia in Ukraine under which virtually half of Ukraine would have been under a direct Russian influence.
He don't need "influence" at half of Ukraine. He needs total and direct control over the whole Ukraine. What is even more important he was more interested in Syria, Venezuela, CAR and other places. Donbass with coal? Ok, good. Mariupol with thorium sands? Ok, may be later. What else? Workforce? Those who want to work in Russia, may work now. Amber? Lumber? There are enough of more important goals right now.

Look at Nagorno-Karabakh. I doubt that Armenia's loosing was in Russian interest, but Russia had to accept that.
There were illegal Armenian separatists, now there are legal, and invited by Azerbaijan, Russian peacekeepers, and the roads between NKR and Armenia and between NAR and Azerbaijan now are officially under control of Russian FSB.
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.

If Russia goes nuclear, so will we! BTW, learn to spell deterrence.
Yes, that's the problem. American plans are concentrated on the prevention of the war, not winning the war. "If the deterrence is failed, let's do "something", or, may be, "nothing"." All, what those military planners are thinking is psychology, facades, good look, and so on. Most of American "military" scenarios begin with tensions and finish by all-out nuclear exchange. Most of Russian military scenarios begin with nuclear exchange, and finish by the delimitation of the Canada-Mexican border (or sign of unconditional surrender by American government).
The last more or less realistic American conception of the "protracted war" was created in 1982.

Really? What is your expertise in this area instead of being an armchair quarterback?
Is the commander of the US Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard "an armchair quarterback", too?
He wrote:
"Government and military leaders need to better understand the new dangers of nuclear conflict and fashion new concepts of deterrence and — if needed — nuclear war-fighting strategies."

"Until we, as a [Defense] Department, come to understand, if not accept, what we are facing and what should be done about it, we run the risk of developing plans we cannot execute and procuring capabilities that will not deliver desired outcomes,” Adm. Richard argued. “In the absence of change, we are on the path, once again, to prepare for the conflict we prefer, instead of one we are likely to face."

Nuclear war is pretty possible, because there are ways to win (or loose) the nuclear war.

Ok. Let's play the game.
---------

1) While the USA are preparing their forces to send in Ukraine, Russia, prepares her own attack: secretly increasing amount of warheads at SSBNs (in violation of New Start, of course, but nobody cares), move tactical nukes to the regular forces, chaotise Ukraine by local agenda to slow down deployment of the US Forces. Putin calls Biden and ask: "Do you really gone bananas and really want to proceed? " If Baiden say yes, then both side proceed.
2) Russia start "civil defense drills" and particularly evactuate their cities.
3) 7 SSBNs of the Northern Fleet, simultaneously crush ice in the Canadian sector of Arctic and launch 7x16x10 - 1120 warheads (95% probability to kill each) in 224 seconds against, say, 500 military targets, including all 400 siloses, strategic air bases and some ports. Attack at "suppressed ballistic trajectory " from the blinking eyes distance, so there is no time to react.
Also, 56 Tu-95MS launch 16 Kontact-2 each (totaly - 896) anti-sat missiles with X-ray laser warheads (say, with 50% single-shot kill probability) US satellites (especially navigation and communication) significantly degraded.
4) Then, Putin declare in public: "You, American, just lost, say, five millions of people, most of them - just a collateral damage, because we avoided attack civilian targets. You still have 327 millions of people, but only few SSBNs with few hundreds of strategic nukes. We have effective ABD, our population is already evacuated and sheltered, our nukes are cocked, locked and ready to launch. The only result of your potentional attack will be death of few thousands of random Russian civilians and our economical losses. But then we'll start massive retaliation - for every launched warhead we'll destroy five your cities. We don't want to kill American civilians, but we definitely will, if you force us. Right now we suggest you cheasefire, and peace negotiations. All what we want (right now) is withdrawn of your forces from Eurasia. If a single missile is launched - we'll demand Alaska, too and your complete denuclearisation." This is called the "Postattack blackmail".
Then, he says to all other countries: "Hey, guys. If you want to join the game and be nuked - you may not intern American forces deployed on your lands. Otherwise, you should be good neutral states. Neutral states don't allow belligerent states to act freely in their territory, in their air and water. Of course, you may accept some of their wounded or refugees, but you should not send in the USA anything that looks like medicine, food, fuel, weapon, munitions and so on. Right now we had suggested them negotiations, try to use all your diplomatic power, to force them to accept our terms, pls".
This is called "in-war deterrence".
-------------
 
Last edited:
Increased influence on the South Caucas, and at least 10% in BTE pipeline
Increased? I think rather opposite is true. Instead of friendly Shevardnadze, Russia now has Georgia with official doctrine of joining NATO. Azerbaijan more and more relies on Turkey.


don't need "influence" at half of Ukraine. He needs total and direct control over the whole Ukraine. What is even more important he was more interested in Syria, Venezuela, CAR and other places. Donbass with coal? Ok, good. Mariupol with thorium sands? Ok, may be later. What else? Workforce? Those who want to work in Russia, may work now. Amber? Lumber? There are enough of more important goals right now
The point is if Novorossia project had been realized, Russia would have an upper hand in Ukrainian matters now. It is not only about controlling half of Ukraine. More important goals? Maybe.


There were illegal Armenian separatists, now there are legal, and invited by Azerbaijan, Russian peacekeepers, and the roads between NKR and Armenia and between NAR and Azerbaijan now are officially under control of Russian FSB
Obviously, Azerbaijan (or more correctly, Turkey) had to make significant concessions. But again, I think that Russia was more pleased with status quo existed before.
 

It seems to me that this would be a good time for an American President (a real President) to approach our NATO "allies" and tell them that THEY have a problem here, and we are willing to HELP.

Remember that 2%of GDP that they promised to spend on mutual defense? There is no time like the present.

Of course that would require a President with balls.

NATO is the most powerful military force in history.

Russia is nowhere close
Only because of the involvement of the United States. If the US is not in play NATO is nothing

France, UK, Germany, Italy have modern militaries with well trained soldiers and pilots.
They have been preparing for decades
Are you kidding? NATO readiness is at an all time low. Germany only has 244 tanks, many of which are inoperable with no spares to fix them, it has 212 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft, again poorly maintained. It has a total of 215,000 military personnel counting every swinging Richard, cooks, clerks doctors, everyone. France has 406 tanks, 269 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 300,000 military personnel. The UK has 209 tanks, 134 fighters, bombers and attack aircraft and 280,000 military personnel. Those the Heavy hitters of NATO. NATO has drawn down from being the well equipped and well trained force of the Cold War. The NATO countries can’t defend themselves, let alone the Ukraine. Russia has serious problems, but it’s far stronger than the European NATO members and is right on the Ukraine’s border. NATO has to move troops and vehicles hundreds of miles to get to the Ukraine.

And Russia?
No, Russia is not stronger than the European NATO members.
Their military is a shell
According the Russian Military doctrine, "Regional wars" are nuclear wars. They have thousands of tactical nukes to fight Europeans and enough of strategical nukes for "in-war detterence" of the USA. Do you believe, that Biden is going to start all-out war (and to kill tens of millions of American citizens) to protect Ukraine, or even the whole Europe? He don't care about Europe, China is his only passion.

If Russia goes nuclear, so will we! BTW, learn to spell deterrence.
Yes, that's the problem. American plans are concentrated on the prevention of the war, not winning the war. "If the deterrence is failed, let's do "something", or, may be, "nothing"." All, what those military planners are thinking is psychology, facades, good look, and so on. Most of American "military" scenarios begin with tensions and finish by all-out nuclear exchange. Most of Russian military scenarios begin with nuclear exchange, and finish by the delimitation of the Canada-Mexican border (or sign of unconditional surrender by American government).
The last more or less realistic American conception of the "protracted war" was created in 1982.

Really? What is your expertise in this area instead of being an armchair quarterback?
Is the commander of the US Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard "an armchair quarterback", too?
He wrote:
"Government and military leaders need to better understand the new dangers of nuclear conflict and fashion new concepts of deterrence and — if needed — nuclear war-fighting strategies."

"Until we, as a [Defense] Department, come to understand, if not accept, what we are facing and what should be done about it, we run the risk of developing plans we cannot execute and procuring capabilities that will not deliver desired outcomes,” Adm. Richard argued. “In the absence of change, we are on the path, once again, to prepare for the conflict we prefer, instead of one we are likely to face."

Nuclear war is pretty possible, because there are ways to win (or loose) the nuclear war.

Ok. Let's play the game.
---------

1) While the USA are preparing their forces to send in Ukraine, Russia, prepares her own attack: secretly increasing amount of warheads at SSBNs (in violation of New Start, of course, but nobody cares), move tactical nukes to the regular forces, chaotise Ukraine by local agenda to slow down deployment of the US Forces. Putin calls Biden and ask: "Do you really gone bananas and really want to proceed? " If Baiden say yes, then both side proceed.
2) Russia start "civil defense drills" and particularly evactuate their cities.
3) 7 SSBNs of the Northern Fleet, simultaneously crush ice in the Canadian sector of Arctic and launch 7x16x10 - 1120 warheads (95% probability to kill each) in 224 seconds against, say, 500 military targets, including all 400 siloses, strategic air bases and some ports. Attack at "suppressed ballistic trajectory " from the blinking eyes distance, so there is no time to react.
Also, 56 Tu-95MS launch 16 Kontact-2 each (totaly - 896) anti-sat missiles with X-ray laser warheads (say, with 50% single-shot kill probability) US satellites (especially navigation and communication) significantly degraded.
4) Then, Putin declare in public: "You, American, just lost, say, five millions of people, most of them - just a collateral damage, because we avoided attack civilian targets. You still have 327 millions of people, but only few SSBNs with few hundreds of strategic nukes. We have effective ABD, our population is already evacuated and sheltered, our nukes are cocked, locked and ready to launch. The only result of your potentional attack will be death of few thousands of random Russian civilians and our economical losses. But then we'll start massive retaliation - for every launched warhead we'll destroy five your cities. We don't want to kill American civilians, but we definitely will, if you force us. Right now we suggest you cheasefire, and peace negotiations. All what we want (right now) is withdrawn of your forces from Eurasia. If a single missile is launched - we'll demand Alaska, too and your complete denuclearisation." This is called the "Postattack blackmail".
Then, he says to all other countries: "Hey, guys. If you want to join the game and be nuked - you may not intern American forces deployed on your lands. Otherwise, you should be good neutral states. Neutral states don't allow belligerent states to act freely in their territory, in their air and water. Of course, you may accept some of their wounded or refugees, but you should not send in the USA anything that looks like medicine, food, fuel, weapon, munitions and so on. Right now we had suggested them negotiations, try to use all your diplomatic power, to force them to accept our terms, pls".
This is called "in-war deterrence".
-------------
Again you have a vivid imagination. Even today the best of your subs are noiser than ours and every Typhoon has an American SSN shadowing it as soon as it leaves port. The SSN’s orders are to kill the SSBN as soon as it shows any sign of making launch preparations. Your blackmail idea simply won’t work. And the idea of evacuation shelters in your cities just means the survivors die of radiation and starvation after emerging. The US has more and better warheads that both the Russians and PRC combined and will use them. The odds of Russian shelters working are as poor as those of Russian equipment and missile warheads working. They were all built by communists and quality control was never a strong point of the communists, your equipment is the Yugo of military equipment. Yes Moscow has a decades old ABM system that was never tested against realistic targets, but no other city in Russia has one. That ABM system was also built and maintained by the communists, so the odds are that most missiles won’t even manage to leave the launchers. Russia is still a third world nation, and its let its military degrade to where it couldn’t defeat even as hapless a country as Saddam’s Iraq. Putin is a bully running a bluff.
 
Second - we need the Credible First Strike Capability, which depends on our possibility to counter their retaliation strike. (Detterence Type II).

We have the ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy.
No need to worry about that
No. Ability to target thousands of nukes with deadly accuracy in the normal situation does not mean possibility to achieve all those goals:
1) to destroy significant part of their strategic and tactical nukes to minimize their retaliation strike to the acceptable level;
2) kill at least 30 millions of Russians and 100 millions of Chineses in situation when their cities are particularly evacuated and population is sheltered;
3) destroy their recuperation potential, including conventional military forces and storage facilities.

All of this US Forces must be able to do in the situation of their active counteractions, including sabotage, espionage, active ABD, erzatz-ABD, etc...

I'm pretty sure, that right now the USA, isn't even at half-way to such possibility (even if we are talking only about Russia and China, not the whole Shanghai Pact).
You’re really funny, delusional, but funny. Exactly where do you think Russia and China are going to evacuate those tens or hundreds of millions of civilians to ride out a nuclear war?
Good question. Russian analog of FEMA - MChS, have roughly 300 thousands of men and women, nearly 38 times more than FEMAFEMA (for the much lesser population), there are NCB-protection troops, there are deputies of chiefs for emergency situations at any significant businesses, who create and twice a year clarify plans of evacuation (for different circumstances), there are plans for police, National Guard, there are school programs of Security, Safety and Survivalnce (more advanced and militarized version of Health and Life Safety) and Initial Military Trainings, etc... The Russians take it really serious. China in 2019 started reforms of their Civil Defense based at the Russian system.


What will they eat and drink afterwards?
They have the Federal Agency of State Reserves, there are enough of food to feed all Russians for three years.
What is even more important - they have the Army, and rich and defenseless neighbours to blackmail or simply rob them.


Nuclear war is unsurvivable and any US president who allowed a attack on the USA without retaliation would be torn limb from limb instead of merely being impeached.
Nuclear war is survivable and even winnable, but only if you are well prepared for it. Russia is prepared. China is increasing its readiness. The US politicians prefer to ignore the problem.
The Russians have more FEMA type personnel because its a typical Russian centrally controlled organization. FEMA has very few real employees and they are managers and coordinators, not laborers. FEMA contracts out all real work to local and regional companies on short term emergency contracts. It’s far better and cheaper than the failed Russian idea of government employees doing the work.
 

New Topics

Forum List

Back
Top