Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
...and would like to offer some thoughts. Some of these thoughts may anger some of my friends on the left. And it's just my opinion, but...
First, the selection of the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA, was a shrewd, intelligent decision. This is the second time* that we have seen a presidential debate against the backdrop of a real "Air Force One" - a stage that sends a powerful message into the heads of those who watched the debate. For a party that is desperate to recapture the White House, getting to debate at the Reagan Library must be something like a dream come true.
Second, it was a very long debate, but since Jake Tapper did such a top-job of moderating and keeping it going and keeping it animated, it did not feel like three hours to me. Part of Tapper's success was that he held GOP candidates very accountable for the things they have said, things that no one can lie about or obfuscate. And he made the format so that any candidate brought into the cross-hairs by another was given time to rebutt. He also went out of his way to let a candidate know if that candididate did not really answer a question. He was tough on all of them, without exception.
Third, although I am not inclined to vote Republican very often and I think that a lot of their proposed policies are bullshit, we saw a number of very smart candidates on the stage, who gave some very interesting, enlightening views and responses. So, for me, it was worth it to watch the debate.
In terms of cutting Trump down to size, I think that the winner of the night, hands down, was Carly Fiorina. With just one line, using Trump's own words, she nailed him, and she nailed him good. That sentence brought her into the big-leagues among the GOP field, no doubt about it. Good for her. Carly was also forceful and very open about many things. And I AGREE with her about the Planned Parenthood videos. What I have seen on 4 videos to-date is horrifying and no human being in the room should want to support that stuff, imo. It needs to stop. Carly also gave the best closing statement of the night. So, Carly had some very, very strong moments and it would not surprise me in the least were she to rise more in GOP polling.
Another winner, in my book was Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who spoke decisively and used his massive experience in government as a reason for people wanting him - instead of running away from his record. I am pretty sure that many moderate Republicans, sensing a possible Jeb! implosion, and seeing that Walker kind of fizzles wherever he goes, may be inclined to give John Kasich a good, hard look. Kasich also gave the most in-depth answers about the Iran Deal of all of the candidates there. More than ever, were a deadlocked GOP convention to happen, a John Kasich could easily emerge as the compromise candidate.
The third big winner of the night, for me, was Ben Carson, whose quiet mannerisms and level-headed responses are bound to make some people pause and think. He has some views I find extreme, but I wager strongly that, were he for some reason to win the GOP nomination and then the White House, he would govern very much from the middle. I don't like that fact that Ben Carson wended his way to "golden-boy" status among Conservatives by openly criticizing our President, Barack Obama, at, of all places, a national prayer breakfast, but that doesn't change the fact that he is a brilliant doctor, Presidential medal of honor recipient and a thoughtful man. I just think he is in the wrong party. Many of his policies are more part of the Conservative Wing of the Democratic Party than of the GOP. Hmmmm....
Rand Paul is obviously on his way out the door. And Trump kicked him in the teeth with Trump's very first sentence, which actually did not set well with the public. This was a better public that I remember for a number of GOP debates in 2011-2012, in terms of behavior. But Paul gave a number of intelligent responses, especially about the war on drugs and on vaccinations and regardless what you may think of him, Paul is very consistent in his devotion to and determination to defend the US Constitution as he sees it, even if doing so puts him at odds with his GOP colleagues. I still think that Rand Paul did the best campaign rollout of all of them and gave by far the best announcement speech, where he outlined his platform and argued his point like a mature adult. For that, I can only respect him. He has no chance at the nomination and I am pretty sure he will drop out immediately following the Kentucky Presidential caucuses, which were called into existence for March 2016, in order to allow him to run for President and for the US Senate at the same time.
Chris Christie lied again about when he became an attorney for the Bush administration, and I wonder to myself, why in the hell would a dude lie on national TV about something that is so easy to fact-check. Chris Christie is long out the door. He just doesn't know it yet. That being said, I hope he stays in the race for a long time.
Marco Rubio tried to be forceful, but Rubio is simply no JFK, and honestly, I think he is way out of his league. Were Rubio to become the GOP nominee would be the equivalent of the Hail Mary Pass of the century: possible, but highly unlikely.
The two big losers of the night, imo, were both Trump and his sidekick, Cruz.
First, Ted Cruz keeps promising things that are logistially impossible. Were he, through a total miracle, to become president, there is no way he can repeal and replace Obamacare on Day 1. It is physically impossible to do. Cruz also speaks a lot of pablum-type bullshit designed to be patriotic and full of pathos. No, the US Embassy in Israel is not going to be in Jerusalem. It is going to stay in Tel Aviv. And when he accuses the current administration of being the largest sponsor of terrorism, forgetting the McCarthyesque nature of his bullshit, it's just mind-boggling that someone would go that far. Ted Cruz appeals to the most base fears and instincts of the hardest of the hard right within the GOP. In a GE, he would lose by 20 points, of this I am quite sure, regardless of the DEM nominee.
And the big loser of the night was Donald Trump, for not being able to retain the dominance he had in the first debate. The one big thing I can credit him for is for having cowed the other 10 over immigration so badly that not even one had enough courage to really come out and say that deporting 12 million illegal immigrants on the spot is a bad idea. This is a moment that the Democrats are going to use to their advantage throughout all of 2016, and rightfully so.
Jeb Bush did not impress me. He aquitted himself now and then, but no matter what he does, he sounds studied and trained by his handlers. The only moment where I thought he really let go was over the Spanish language thing and Trump's derogatory comments about Bush's wife, who is a naturalized US-citizen of Mexican heritage. In that moment, I saw a real human being. But most of the time, I just see a machine. And in a battle between Bush III and Clinton II, most peoples' money is still on Clinton II. And I really wonder if his heart is even in this at all.
The Democrats have also made a mistake, here. They are allowing the GOP too much time to be present in the media with debates. The Democrats should have also planned a debate for September. That was a strategic mistake.
It would not surprise me a bit were Carson to take a small lead in some state polling here and there, probably Michigan or Ohio and I bet that nationally, over the next 21 days, Trump's lead will shrink as Carson's, Fiorina's and Kasich's numbers grow. But that's just my opinion.
Wait and see.
-Stat
*edit
First, the selection of the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, CA, was a shrewd, intelligent decision. This is the second time* that we have seen a presidential debate against the backdrop of a real "Air Force One" - a stage that sends a powerful message into the heads of those who watched the debate. For a party that is desperate to recapture the White House, getting to debate at the Reagan Library must be something like a dream come true.
Second, it was a very long debate, but since Jake Tapper did such a top-job of moderating and keeping it going and keeping it animated, it did not feel like three hours to me. Part of Tapper's success was that he held GOP candidates very accountable for the things they have said, things that no one can lie about or obfuscate. And he made the format so that any candidate brought into the cross-hairs by another was given time to rebutt. He also went out of his way to let a candidate know if that candididate did not really answer a question. He was tough on all of them, without exception.
Third, although I am not inclined to vote Republican very often and I think that a lot of their proposed policies are bullshit, we saw a number of very smart candidates on the stage, who gave some very interesting, enlightening views and responses. So, for me, it was worth it to watch the debate.
In terms of cutting Trump down to size, I think that the winner of the night, hands down, was Carly Fiorina. With just one line, using Trump's own words, she nailed him, and she nailed him good. That sentence brought her into the big-leagues among the GOP field, no doubt about it. Good for her. Carly was also forceful and very open about many things. And I AGREE with her about the Planned Parenthood videos. What I have seen on 4 videos to-date is horrifying and no human being in the room should want to support that stuff, imo. It needs to stop. Carly also gave the best closing statement of the night. So, Carly had some very, very strong moments and it would not surprise me in the least were she to rise more in GOP polling.
Another winner, in my book was Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who spoke decisively and used his massive experience in government as a reason for people wanting him - instead of running away from his record. I am pretty sure that many moderate Republicans, sensing a possible Jeb! implosion, and seeing that Walker kind of fizzles wherever he goes, may be inclined to give John Kasich a good, hard look. Kasich also gave the most in-depth answers about the Iran Deal of all of the candidates there. More than ever, were a deadlocked GOP convention to happen, a John Kasich could easily emerge as the compromise candidate.
The third big winner of the night, for me, was Ben Carson, whose quiet mannerisms and level-headed responses are bound to make some people pause and think. He has some views I find extreme, but I wager strongly that, were he for some reason to win the GOP nomination and then the White House, he would govern very much from the middle. I don't like that fact that Ben Carson wended his way to "golden-boy" status among Conservatives by openly criticizing our President, Barack Obama, at, of all places, a national prayer breakfast, but that doesn't change the fact that he is a brilliant doctor, Presidential medal of honor recipient and a thoughtful man. I just think he is in the wrong party. Many of his policies are more part of the Conservative Wing of the Democratic Party than of the GOP. Hmmmm....
Rand Paul is obviously on his way out the door. And Trump kicked him in the teeth with Trump's very first sentence, which actually did not set well with the public. This was a better public that I remember for a number of GOP debates in 2011-2012, in terms of behavior. But Paul gave a number of intelligent responses, especially about the war on drugs and on vaccinations and regardless what you may think of him, Paul is very consistent in his devotion to and determination to defend the US Constitution as he sees it, even if doing so puts him at odds with his GOP colleagues. I still think that Rand Paul did the best campaign rollout of all of them and gave by far the best announcement speech, where he outlined his platform and argued his point like a mature adult. For that, I can only respect him. He has no chance at the nomination and I am pretty sure he will drop out immediately following the Kentucky Presidential caucuses, which were called into existence for March 2016, in order to allow him to run for President and for the US Senate at the same time.
Chris Christie lied again about when he became an attorney for the Bush administration, and I wonder to myself, why in the hell would a dude lie on national TV about something that is so easy to fact-check. Chris Christie is long out the door. He just doesn't know it yet. That being said, I hope he stays in the race for a long time.
Marco Rubio tried to be forceful, but Rubio is simply no JFK, and honestly, I think he is way out of his league. Were Rubio to become the GOP nominee would be the equivalent of the Hail Mary Pass of the century: possible, but highly unlikely.
The two big losers of the night, imo, were both Trump and his sidekick, Cruz.
First, Ted Cruz keeps promising things that are logistially impossible. Were he, through a total miracle, to become president, there is no way he can repeal and replace Obamacare on Day 1. It is physically impossible to do. Cruz also speaks a lot of pablum-type bullshit designed to be patriotic and full of pathos. No, the US Embassy in Israel is not going to be in Jerusalem. It is going to stay in Tel Aviv. And when he accuses the current administration of being the largest sponsor of terrorism, forgetting the McCarthyesque nature of his bullshit, it's just mind-boggling that someone would go that far. Ted Cruz appeals to the most base fears and instincts of the hardest of the hard right within the GOP. In a GE, he would lose by 20 points, of this I am quite sure, regardless of the DEM nominee.
And the big loser of the night was Donald Trump, for not being able to retain the dominance he had in the first debate. The one big thing I can credit him for is for having cowed the other 10 over immigration so badly that not even one had enough courage to really come out and say that deporting 12 million illegal immigrants on the spot is a bad idea. This is a moment that the Democrats are going to use to their advantage throughout all of 2016, and rightfully so.
Jeb Bush did not impress me. He aquitted himself now and then, but no matter what he does, he sounds studied and trained by his handlers. The only moment where I thought he really let go was over the Spanish language thing and Trump's derogatory comments about Bush's wife, who is a naturalized US-citizen of Mexican heritage. In that moment, I saw a real human being. But most of the time, I just see a machine. And in a battle between Bush III and Clinton II, most peoples' money is still on Clinton II. And I really wonder if his heart is even in this at all.
The Democrats have also made a mistake, here. They are allowing the GOP too much time to be present in the media with debates. The Democrats should have also planned a debate for September. That was a strategic mistake.
It would not surprise me a bit were Carson to take a small lead in some state polling here and there, probably Michigan or Ohio and I bet that nationally, over the next 21 days, Trump's lead will shrink as Carson's, Fiorina's and Kasich's numbers grow. But that's just my opinion.
Wait and see.
-Stat
*edit
Last edited:
You've got stronger stomach than I do.
