Utilitarian
co-Cain Manager
I can agree that all of the Fed printing puts us at risk, but until another currency becomes the world's favored one, we have a lot of flexibility in terms of printing. It is precisely because of the Yuan's controls that it won't become that currency. The only real competitor to the dollar's dominance is the Euro, but the EU has been very dysfunctional as of late.State control over currency "range", so to speak, does not equal stability. If it was that simple, Zimbabwe would be just fine right now.I used to think that, but now that China is burying itself in debt and the EU can't get its shit together, I think the dollar would be fine without the oil trade. We'd still need to make certain adjustments, however.
Chinese debt is domestic and is a subject of government's administration. Also Yan is not a freely convertable currency.
While US debt is to big extent is foreign and US does not control many of its holders.
Dollar cannot be fine if Dollar zone shrinks, multiplying debt/currency zone ratio, while Yuan zone cannot shrink.
etc.
I did not say state control over currency is equial to stability, I said :
1) Yuan flows in and out of the country are controlled, unlike Dollar, so sudden disbalance in flows aka sudden and big currency rate fluctuation is unlikely with Yian.
2) and what is more important - Yuan circulates only in China and its zone cannot shrink at all.
while Dollar circulates mostly abroad and when now Fed pritns money - you don't have hyperinflation only becouse trillions of fresh dollars pour outside.
If Dollar zones shrinks, these dolars will create giant oversupply of money in the US, over demand on material goods, which is exactly Zimbabwe and Venezuela situation.
Actually, the YS us already Venezueka with postponed implementation. And every decrease of dollar usage in the World is very dangerouse. We can discuss only the limin of this decrease when it starts being lethal.