I used to think that, but now that China is burying itself in debt and the EU can't get its shit together, I think the dollar would be fine without the oil trade. We'd still need to make certain adjustments, however.
Chinese debt is domestic and is a subject of government's administration. Also Yan is not a freely convertable currency.
While US debt is to big extent is foreign and US does not control many of its holders.
Dollar cannot be fine if Dollar zone shrinks, multiplying debt/currency zone ratio, while Yuan zone cannot shrink.
etc.
State control over currency "range", so to speak, does not equal stability. If it was that simple, Zimbabwe would be just fine right now.
I did not say state control over currency is equial to stability, I said :
1) Yuan flows in and out of the country are controlled, unlike Dollar, so sudden disbalance in flows aka sudden and big currency rate fluctuation is unlikely with Yian.
2) and what is more important - Yuan circulates only in China and its zone cannot shrink at all.
while Dollar circulates mostly abroad and when now Fed pritns money - you don't have hyperinflation only becouse trillions of fresh dollars pour outside.
If Dollar zones shrinks, these dolars will create giant oversupply of money in the US, over demand on material goods, which is exactly Zimbabwe and Venezuela situation.
Actually, the YS us already Venezueka with postponed implementation. And every decrease of dollar usage in the World is very dangerouse. We can discuss only the limin of this decrease when it starts being lethal.
Cool story bro. How about you make an actual testable prediction? When is this hyper-inflation taking place?
If only I had a dollar for everytime someone on the internets was mouthing off about "inflation will go through the roof any second now!".
in the West demand on basic goods has reached its natural limit long ago, you will not be able to eat 30 hamburgers a day even if given a billion $, you will spend in on housing, health care and education, and will invest it in stocks as next step - and these are the sphetes where inflation is accumulated.
look at S&P and tell me that stocks growth really reflects growith of revenues, right in the moment when economy slumps...
all stocks growth is nothing at all but accelerating inflation.
plus even CPI growth starts accelerating..
Wtf? Inflation is defined by the cost of goods, not the cost of stocks.
Do you know anything about economics?
unless you are a cavemen you may have met goods not in form of physical stuff, like goods in form of services - healthcare, education, cleaning etc., or in form of virtual stuff, like trademarks, good will etc, or stocks.
all these are goods and whenever you talk about prices - inflation is a legitimate subject of study
seems you have a lousy American education..
No silly, not "or stocks". Stocks are not part of CPI.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a monthly measurement of U.S. prices for household goods and services.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an important metric that tracks pricing for everyday expenses and the pace of inflation, two important factors in the U.S. economy.
www.thebalance.com
of course stocks are not part of CPI, but to you surprise inflation does not pay any attention to what goods are included in CPI by American bureau of statistics or something..
Inflation just takes what it wants according to the law of demand and supply, regardless of CPI (which is additionally a subject of manipulation of US government)
...just stop, you don't know what you are saying.
no problem, I have given up long ago to educate Americans on basics of capitalist economy
Yep, I have to explain to you the components of CPI and that it
IS the inflation index everyone talks about when discussing these matters, but supposedly you are teaching me something?
Duummy, if you fancy yourself to be representing Russkies over here you are not doing too good. Ignorant and full of ego bs...though come to think of it maybe it's spot on.
every shark is a fish, but every fish is not nesessarily a shark.
CPI is only one of of indexes to measure inflation, which is a genersl term which can be applied to much broader range of items
like, if CPI is CONSUMER price index, there is also wholesale price index, inflation also can be counted separately in industry, education, retail, housing, STOCKS etc...
what I say is not even specifically economic knowledge, it is common sense supposed to be available to everybody by default
as people say, American Universities are a place where Russian professors teach Chinezs students mathematics..

Because degradation of American educational system is irreversible...