Six Republican state senators risk losing their seats in the recall effort, which was spurred by controversial budget reforms undertaken by the state's new GOP governor, Scott Walker. Over the objections of Democrats and their allies in labor, new Republican majorities in the Legislature teamed up with Walker to eliminate most collective bargaining rights for public employees.
If Democrats can win four of the six races on the ballot today, they'll retake control of the state Senate and give a boost to a national party sorely in need of one.
"In size and scope and consequence, the recall movement will represent a historic correction to Republican overreach," Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chairman Mike Tate said in a memo to reporters Monday.
A new poll indicates that they may be within striking distance of doing so. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling found one Democratic challenger with a double-digit lead over the GOP incumbent; two other challengers were behind but within the poll's margin of error. The survey was commissioned by liberal blog Daily Kos.
However, the races are difficult to handicap, according to an analysis by Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Democrats, he wrote Monday, have the advantage of organizational strength from labor and Walker's weak polling numbers. But the districts are Republican-leaning, despite the fact that President Obama narrowly carried all but one of them in 2008.
"In order to overcome that disadvantage, they have to win the turnout battle, carry independents or both," Gilbert wrote.