Housing Bubble RAPIDLY Deflating

[unlawflcombatnt]

The Housing Bubble deflation is rapidly accelerating. November New Home sales declined 11.3% from October. This is the largest decline in New Home sales in 12 years. In the West, the bubble is deflating even faster. November New Home sales in the West declined 22% over October.

Median New Home prices also declined 4.1%. November's median New Home price declined to $225,200 from October's $234,800. This information can be found in the following article by AP writer Martin Crutsinger: NewHomeSalesFall

Below is a chart from Briefing.com showing the changes over the last 5 months.

This can also be found at: NewHomeSales


_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

 

[archangel]

The Housing Bubble deflation is rapidly accelerating. November New Home sales declined 11.3% from October. This is the largest decline in New Home sales in 12 years. In the West, the bubble is deflating even faster. November New Home sales in the West declined 22% over October.

Median New Home prices also declined 4.1%. November's median New Home price declined to $225,200 from October's $234,800. This information can be found in the following article by AP writer Martin Crutsinger: NewHomeSalesFall

Below is a chart from Briefing.com showing the changes over the last 5 months.

This can also be found at: NewHomeSales


_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

but shouldn't this be in the economy section?

 

[Mr. P]

The Housing Bubble deflation is rapidly accelerating. November New Home sales declined 11.3% from October. This is the largest decline in New Home sales in 12 years. In the West, the bubble is deflating even faster. November New Home sales in the West declined 22% over October.

Median New Home prices also declined 4.1%. November's median New Home price declined to $225,200 from October's $234,800. This information can be found in the following article by AP writer Martin Crutsinger: NewHomeSalesFall

Below is a chart from Briefing.com showing the changes over the last 5 months.

This can also be found at: NewHomeSales


_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

Sales are cyclical for the most part, your point is ?????
Wait, it’s W, right?

 

[Annie]

I'd like to see the past 3 years, month by month. For some reason, (hint: holidays), I think this is a normally decline period?) Yet, many have been harking on a bubble, so let's see the comparisons. I am too lazy to do. Around here, housing has kept up it's regular pace, not super fast, nor super slow.

 

[Said1]

I'd like to see the past 3 years, month by month. For some reason, (hint: holidays), I think this is a normally decline period?) Yet, many have been harking on a bubble, so let's see the comparisons. I am too lazy to do. Around here, housing has kept up it's regular pace, not super fast, nor super slow.

Have interest rates increased? Tax increases influence this too. I'd think it would be more interesting to see a break down per city. The "bubble" in this city is not shrinking at all - not noticeably anyway. Then there is no market at all in other areas. I have no idea what I'm talking about - I'm in denial.

 

[Annie]

Have interest rates increased? Tax increases influence this too. I'd think it would be more interesting to see a break down per city. The "bubble" in this city is not shrinking at all - not noticeably anyway. Then there is no market at all in other areas. I have no idea what I'm talking about - I'm in denial.

I believe interest rates have risen a bit. However, would be more interested in how FL is effecting these numbers. It was increasing in huge %'s due to the front of the baby boom. However, the past 2 years have devestated their real estate market. For some reason, people from the North are loathe to move to 'hurricane zone.' On top of that, one has to look at what homeowner's insurance is doing to the South in general. I know that my folks were paying 5 years ago, about $600 a year for homeowner's. My friend, an Allstate agent says that the avg. FL homeowner's policy is close to 3k per year now.

In my area, there is and has been a standard increase in sales price, but that is only slightly above the rise of salaries. Haven't seen any downticks.

 

[Said1]

I believe interest rates have risen a bit. However, would be more interested in how FL is effecting these numbers. It was increasing in huge %'s due to the front of the baby boom. However, the past 2 years have devestated their real estate market. For some reason, people from the North are loathe to move to 'hurricane zone.' On top of that, one has to look at what homeowner's insurance is doing to the South in general. I know that my folks were paying 5 years ago, about $600 a year for homeowner's. My friend, an Allstate agent says that the avg. FL homeowner's policy is close to 3k per year now.

In my area, there is and has been a standard increase in sales price, but that is only slightly above the rise of salaries. Haven't seen any downticks.

That's just it. The variables are numerous. This area got hit hard again with tax increases, combined with high energy costs and a few other things (buy out packages running out for one has people leaving the city in droves) has those in the "know" predicting decreased prices....soon? Who knows, they've been dead off thus far. I say it stands in the suburbs, not here. :huh:

What are the busiest seasons for home shopping, spring, summer, fall?

 

[Said1]

Few years ago, this town home would have went for about $80k. Today it's listed at 240K. About half a mile from my house. No yard, parking in the back, situated in the middle of about 10 other units.

 

[Annie]

That's just it. The variables are numerous. This area got hit hard again with tax increases, combined with high energy costs and a few other things (buy out packages running out for one has people leaving the city in droves) has those in the "know" predicting decreased prices....soon? Who knows, they've been dead off thus far. I say it stands in the suburbs, not here. :huh:

What are the busiest seasons for home shopping, spring, summer, fall?

I'd say very late winter and spring. I'm considering buying land in FL and moving to AK. The hurricane cycles have been about a 10 year trend.

 

[nbdysfu]

Few years ago, this town home would have went for about $80k. Today it's listed at 240K. About half a mile from my house. No yard, parking in the back, situated in the middle of about 10 other units.

Makes me think: Good.

In my area, a town of around thirty thousand, one story ranchburgers from the 70s with unfinished basements and 0 acreage are going for the same price, as are the townhomes where three and fifteen years ago they weren't selling for 80k. Real estate values and rent rates have doubled or tripled in general. It's changing the makeup of the town.
I know a lot of people will be angry if the value of their property goes down, but I think as many if not more, will be happy that they don't have to spend half their paycheck paying rent every month.

 

[unlawflcombatnt]

Sales are cyclical for the most part, your point is ?????
Wait, it’s W, right?

My "point" is that prices and sales are sinking like a rock. And any "cycle" is in its downward phase and may continue downward for years, like many business "cycles" do.

What is your "point"? That is, "for the most part"?

unlawflcombatnt
EconomicPopulistCommentary
_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

 

[Mr. P]

My "point" is that prices and sales are sinking like a rock. And any "cycle" is in its downward phase and may continue downward for years, like many business "cycles" do.

What is your "point"? That is, "for the most part"?

unlawflcombatnt
EconomicPopulistCommentary
_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

My point is, it’s not a gloom an doom situation. For the most part it’s normal.

“We’re looking for a good economy through 2006, with GDP growth remaining strong and with job creation running at roughly the same pace as in 2005 – key positive factors in the housing outlook,” said NAHB’s Seiders.

“For housing, it will be a systematic simmering down process toward more sustainable levels of sales, production and price appreciation as opposed to a full-blown cyclical contraction. In terms of single-family sales and starts, we’ll basically be retracing the increases we saw in 2005, heading back to 2004’s very healthy levels.”

Seiders’ forecast envisions overall housing starts reaching 1.94 million units in 2006, which is down from an estimated 2.06 million units this year and very close to 2004’s 1.95 million units. Single-family starts will decline to 1.59 million next year from this year’s 1.71 million units, while sales of new single-family homes will ease to about 1.19 million units from this year’s record-breaking 1.27 million. Likewise, multifamily starts will slip to 350,000 in 2006 from about 354,000 in 2005.
……..
“It’s pretty obvious at this point that the real estate market is gradually shifting to more of a buyer’s market,” said Glassman. “This has been a case of real estate prices catching up to market fundamentals – not a ‘bubble.’” With this in mind, “It’s reasonable to assume that house-price appreciation will be slowing down to the single digits.”

http://www.nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=1653

 

[Markainion]

I'd like to see the past 3 years, month by month. For some reason, (hint: holidays), I think this is a normally decline period?) Yet, many have been harking on a bubble, so let's see the comparisons. I am too lazy to do. Around here, housing has kept up it's regular pace, not super fast, nor super slow.

There usually is a decline during the winter months. I think one of my last post-here months ago showed it. But I am too lazy right now to post a link.

 

[Hobbit]

Few people move during the winter. It's cold, and moving furniture is an outdoor job, as is looking for houses. Most parents are also hesitant to move their kids in the middle of the school year. Then there's the fact that with low interest rates, everyone was buying houses who had been waiting before, causing a boom. Whenever all those people get their houses, the rates will drop back to normal and probably a little lower, since so many people just bought houses. It's normal and will pass.

 

[007]

Few years ago, this town home would have went for about $80k. Today it's listed at 240K. About half a mile from my house. No yard, parking in the back, situated in the middle of about 10 other units.

That place would be half a million here in Reno. Sometimes I wonder if I made the right choice moving here.

 

[Abbey Normal]

Sales are cyclical for the most part, your point is ?????
Wait, it’s W, right?

Of course...

We had a large tree falll down behind our house. I assume that GWB had a hand in it somehow. Oh, but wait, doesn't he only direct natural disaters to hit poor neighborhoods? He must have miscalculated this time.

 

[Said1]

That place would be half a million here in Reno. Sometimes I wonder if I made the right choice moving here.

I can see a townhome like that being priced that high where you are.


On a lighter note, I just saw a little dump listed at 120K - totally detached. Primo location.
Now if you'll excuse me, I need to go get my Harry Potter mask and head down to the bank.

 

[manu1959]

My "point" is that prices and sales are sinking like a rock. And any "cycle" is in its downward phase and may continue downward for years, like many business "cycles" do.

What is your "point"? That is, "for the most part"?

unlawflcombatnt
EconomicPopulistCommentary
_________________
The economy needs balance between the "means of production" & "means of consumption."

are they higher or lower than they were 1 year ago?

all i know is when i bought my house under clinton it was 340,000 and it is now worth 1.2 mill

so the rock would have to sink quite aways for it to mean anything

further, i design housing for a living.....i can not hire people fast enough to do the work developers want me to do....this is the best it has been in the 25 years i have been doing this....

 

[rtwngAvngr]

are they higher or lower than they were 1 year ago?

all i know is when i bought my house under clinton it was 340,000 and it is now worth 1.2 mill

so the rock would have to sink quite aways for it to mean anything

further, i design housing for a living.....i can not hire people fast enough to do the work developers want me to do....this is the best it has been in the 25 years i have been doing this....

Reality doesn't phase the chicken littles. So sad.

 

[Abbey Normal]

Reality doesn't phase the chicken littles. So sad.

Typical reaction of all the Chicken Littles upon hearing some positive news: