Election 2009

[Tech_Esq]

There will be two key elections this year commonly they are seen as bell weather elections for the 2010 election season. The elections are for Governor of Virginia and New Jersey. In most years only Virginia is seen as a bell weather because NJ is so solidly Democrat held. This year if New Jersey goes Republican it might be seen as an indication of just how bad the elections will go for the Democrats in 2010.

From Real Clear Politics -

In Virginia, after initially leading after the primary, the Democrat has now fallen to 14 points down. The Republican now leads 51% - 37%.

In New Jersey, the Republican has led the race since winning the Republican primary. The Republican is up 50% - 36% over the incumbent governor Corzine.

Additionally, in Virginia there are 2 state-wide seats up besides governor: Lt. Gov. and Atty General. The Republican candidates are leading strongly in both of those.

Of course it is too early to place much stock in polls. (We'll have a better idea after Labor Day if these margins will hold, but it does not look good for Democrats going into this election cycle.

 

[Sinatra]

There will be two key elections this year commonly they are seen as bell weather elections for the 2010 election season. The elections are for Governor of Virginia and New Jersey. In most years only Virginia is seen as a bell weather because NJ is so solidly Democrat held. This year if New Jersey goes Republican it might be seen as an indication of just how bad the elections will go for the Democrats in 2010.

From Real Clear Politics -

In Virginia, after initially leading after the primary, the Democrat has now fallen to 14 points down. The Republican now leads 51% - 37%.

In New Jersey, the Republican has led the race since winning the Republican primary. The Republican is up 50% - 36% over the incumbent governor Corzine.

Additionally, in Virginia there are 2 state-wide seats up besides governor: Lt. Gov. and Atty General. The Republican candidates are leading strongly in both of those.

Of course it is too early to place much stock in polls. (We'll have a better idea after Labor Day if these margins will hold, but it does not look good for Democrats going into this election cycle.

These races are leading indicators of voters' collective mood and the nation's political temperature.

There was even a report in the Washington Post (I believe) indicating the candidates for governor were reluctant to have Obama campaign on their behalf as internal state polling is indicating considerable Obama-backlash within their respective states. For this to be happening during Obama's first year in office is a remarkable testament to how quickly his support is evaporating. The Obama coat tails have all but dissapeared already...

 

[Tech_Esq]

These races are leading indicators of voters' collective mood and the nation's political temperature.

There was even a report in the Washington Post (I believe) indicating the candidates for governor were reluctant to have Obama campaign on their behalf as internal state polling is indicating considerable Obama-backlash within their respective states. For this to be happening during Obama's first year in office is a remarkable testament to how quickly his support is evaporating. The Obama coat tails have all but dissapeared already...

I heard that about Criegh Deeds, however he just did a campaign appearance with Obama in McLean. Maybe he figures Obama is still popular in Northern Virginia. I agree though. I don't know of another instance where a President's popularity plummeted so quickly after the honeymoon.

 

[Sinatra]

These races are leading indicators of voters' collective mood and the nation's political temperature.

There was even a report in the Washington Post (I believe) indicating the candidates for governor were reluctant to have Obama campaign on their behalf as internal state polling is indicating considerable Obama-backlash within their respective states. For this to be happening during Obama's first year in office is a remarkable testament to how quickly his support is evaporating. The Obama coat tails have all but dissapeared already...

I heard that about Criegh Deeds, however he just did a campaign appearance with Obama in McLean. Maybe he figures Obama is still popular in Northern Virginia. I agree though. I don't know of another instance where a President's popularity plummeted so quickly after the honeymoon.

Agreed.

I am certain these Democrat candidates would do far better having Bill Clinton campaign on their behalf vs Obama...

 

[rightwinger]

NJ is not a good indicator of the strength of the republican party nationwide. NJ has historically chosen republican governors (Kean, Whitman) and tends to hate whoever their current governor is.
Jon Corzine is universally disliked and has recently had large numbers of his party indicted for corruption. His Opponent, Chris Christie is a former Federal Prosecutor known for his prosecutions of corrupt politicians.
Obama campaigned for Corzine and the place was packed and cheered the President throughout. Corzine was booed.
Christie will take the governorship. But the overall strength of the republican party in NJ is still weak

 

[Sinatra]

NJ is not a good indicator of the strength of the republican party nationwide. NJ has historically chosen republican governors (Kean, Whitman) and tends to hate whoever their current governor is.
Jon Corzine is universally disliked and has recently had large numbers of his party indicted for corruption. His Opponent, Chris Christie is a former Federal Prosecutor known for his prosecutions of corrupt politicians.
Obama campaigned for Corzine and the place was packed and cheered the President throughout. Corzine was booed.
Christie will take the governorship. But the overall strength of the republican party in NJ is still weak

Almost the entire premise of your post is incorrect.

New Jersey has had a Democrat governor for eight consecutive years.. Prior to that it had Republican governors for eight years, and prior to that going back to the 1970's somewhat evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, so New Jersey does in fact offer up an important representatation of the national mood - though likely not quite as much as Virginia, which has hitorically been considered more of a bellwether state.

Your attempt at observational discourse simply makes the previous point - Obama has very little political clout outside his own celebrity status. Insiders within his own party are uncertain as to having him campaign on their behalf - it certainly does not appear to be aiding Corzine - a presently unpopular Democrat governor receiving no help from the appearance of an increasingly unpopular Democrat president...

 

[rightwinger]

NJ is not a good indicator of the strength of the republican party nationwide. NJ has historically chosen republican governors (Kean, Whitman) and tends to hate whoever their current governor is.
Jon Corzine is universally disliked and has recently had large numbers of his party indicted for corruption. His Opponent, Chris Christie is a former Federal Prosecutor known for his prosecutions of corrupt politicians.
Obama campaigned for Corzine and the place was packed and cheered the President throughout. Corzine was booed.
Christie will take the governorship. But the overall strength of the republican party in NJ is still weak

Almost the entire premise of your post is incorrect.

New Jersey has had a Democrat governor for eight consecutive years.. Prior to that it had Republican governors for eight years, and prior to that going back to the 1970's somewhat evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, so New Jersey does in fact offer up an important representatation of the national mood - though likely not quite as much as Virginia, which has hitorically been considered more of a bellwether state.

Your attempt at observational discourse simply makes the previous point - Obama has very little political clout outside his own celebrity status. Insiders within his own party are uncertain as to having him campaign on their behalf - it certainly does not appear to be aiding Corzine - a presently unpopular Democrat governor receiving no help from the appearance of an increasingly unpopular Democrat president...

If Jesus Christ or Frank Sinatra came down and embraced Corzine, NJ voters would still hate the guy. New Jersey is not a good indicator of Republican strength. One has to only look at the stiffs the republicans have put up in recent years. Nobody knows Chris Christie right now. Give him time and New Jersey will hate him too

 

[Fatality]

demos will always vote for demos they dont care what happens they are loyal to their party not to whats right or wrong.