And Democrats are to blame.
1. The EC map is outright hostile to Democrats, and this will continue to be the case for a long time. Democrats need to reinvent themselves to change that. (See
map.)
2. More specifically, the GOP can always be expected to start every Presidential election with 261 guaranteed votes (TX, FL, GA, AL, MS, LA, SC, NC, TN, AR, OK, AZ, UT, KY, MO, KS, WV, OH, IN, IA, NE4, WY, ID, MT, SD, ND, AK), with 7 more likely to go their way (MA1, NZ).
3. Dems will never change NC, GA, or AZ into realistically going blue in anything other than exceptional cases (which was the case in 2020).
4. By contrast, Dems have far fewer guaranteed votes, as more of their friendly states are potential risks to be flipped. Specifically, they can expect to have 191 guaranteed votes (VT, MA, CN, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, CO, CA, OR, WA, MA1, HI), and 35 additional likely votes (MA2, NH, VA, NM, NE1, MN).
5. This means that for the GOP coasting and resting on their laurels will likely be enough for their first 268 votes. Outside of exceptional cases, all the GOP really have to work for is to add ONE MORE VOTE in order to win. The GOP can even afford to lose/ignore/sacrifice their likely/friendly votes by simply winning ONE contested state.
6. Dems, on the other hand, have to solidify their entire "friendly" group, and then they have to sweep the entirety of the swing states. The only real path that will ever be open for Dems will continue to be through the rust belt. And Dems have lost their ability to be convincing.
7. The only true swing states in this day and age are PA, WI, and MI (44 votes).
8. Democrats have spent years, if not decades, banking on Hispanic population growth being their big meal ticket. But it was always a strategy destined to fail.
9. Democrats tendency to think that Hispanics are mostly Democrat friendly types was always rooted in an old fashioned view of Hispanics in America, from when Hispanics were predominantly concentrated in deeply blue areas like California, New Jersey, and New York City. Dems just assumed all Hispanics would more or less think this way.
10. But Hispanics in those Democratic strongholds becoming Democrats was always more about local culture propagating itself, not about
Hispanics inherently being inclined to be Democrats.
11. Culturally, many Hispanic Americans are actually likely to be inclined towards being rather conservative in many ways. The role of Christianity in many Latin American cultures is probably the most prominent example.
12. The flaw of the Hispanic plan has already showed itself in the red-cementing of FL. It will really blow up soon--within the next 10 years for sure, but possibly even this election.
13. Democrats stupidly blamed their 2016 loss on the country allegedly being sexist. They're already blaming Harris's under-performance now on the same, plus adding the racist card. Yeah, that stuff is an influence, but the real problem is that they're on the wrong train. Once again, they're not actually dealing with the real problems, so they're not going to be able to overcome their weaknesses.
14. What made 2020 exceptional was that the public was really sick and tired of Donald and his bullshit. But people are stupid and have short memories. They don't have the same sense of urgency this time around.
15. The only other potential to leverage something
exceptional for this election will be if Harris is able to rock a stellar get-the-vote-out operation, and if Donald delivers an exceptionally abysmal effort on this front.
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