Donald's gonna win.

[TNHarley]

I gave you reasons, let me tell you again....I don't mind.
I'm NOT moving to Sweden (pick another Country if you'd like) just to live the exact same life with the exact same freedoms.

You don't like this answer, try answering rather than deflection.
You can't, you won't.
Cuz you're a PUSSY.

View attachment 1029367

Thats called a statement, not a question. Good grief.

 

[Fang]

I always said Democrats pay lip service to minorities. (I am a minority) Now this is what I am hearing from these minority communities.

 

[Winco]

Thats called a statement, not a question. Good grief.

You're confused.

That's ^^^ a Statement.

Why are you unable to discuss a topic without deflection?

That's a Question.

 

[Picaro]

My own personal anecdotal experience is he is going to get a lot of minority votes, especially hispanics and latinos.

 

[Lisa558]

My own personal anecdotal experience is he is going to get a lot of minority votes, especially hispanics and latinos.

He also is going to get 20% of the black vote.

 

[JWBooth]

Donald's gonna win.​

I'm starting to think that this is correct. I cannot get excited about it, not in any positive way, but I can get excited about the dimocraps going down in flames. No silver lining, pot metal at best.

 

[TNHarley]

You're confused.

That's ^^^ a Statement.

Why are you unable to discuss a topic without deflection?

That's a Question.

So you dont know what a question or deflection is. Noted.

 

[ThirdTerm]

Harris lost her momentum. Polls look good for Trump in battleground states, which he will sweep on Election Day. The situation in the seven states, according to recent opinion polls, is as follows: (Real Clear Politics average, October 18th)

Arizona: Trump 48.8%, Harris 47.4% (Trump +1.4 points)
Nevada: Trump 47.7%, Harris 47.2% (Trump +0.5 points)
Wisconsin: Trump 47.9%, Harris 47.8% (Trump +0.1 points)
Michigan: Trump 48.3%, Harris 47.4% (Trump +0.9 points)
Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9%, Harris 47.4% (Trump +0.5 points)
North Carolina: Trump 48.5%, Harris 47.5% (Trump +1.0 points)
Georgia: Trump 48.7%, Harris 47.8% (Trump +0.9 points)

 

[Winco]

So you dont know what a question or deflection is. Noted.

More Deflection from the idiot TNHarley

Simply answer the question..... You know what a question is... Correct?

I didnt say it fucked my life.
I said "we are fucked" which would imply "collectively" please learn to read.

Why are we 'Collectively Fucked" as a Nation?

 

[TNHarley]

More Deflection from the idiot TNHarley

Simply answer the question..... You know what a question is... Correct?




Why are we 'Collectively Fucked" as a Nation?

I already answered that. Might need to start calling you biden.
You are starting to bore me, old man.

 

[BrokeLoser]

And Democrats are to blame.

1. The EC map is outright hostile to Democrats, and this will continue to be the case for a long time. Democrats need to reinvent themselves to change that. (See map.)

2. More specifically, the GOP can always be expected to start every Presidential election with 261 guaranteed votes (TX, FL, GA, AL, MS, LA, SC, NC, TN, AR, OK, AZ, UT, KY, MO, KS, WV, OH, IN, IA, NE4, WY, ID, MT, SD, ND, AK), with 7 more likely to go their way (MA1, NZ).

3. Dems will never change NC, GA, or AZ into realistically going blue in anything other than exceptional cases (which was the case in 2020).

4. By contrast, Dems have far fewer guaranteed votes, as more of their friendly states are potential risks to be flipped. Specifically, they can expect to have 191 guaranteed votes (VT, MA, CN, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, CO, CA, OR, WA, MA1, HI), and 35 additional likely votes (MA2, NH, VA, NM, NE1, MN).

5. This means that for the GOP coasting and resting on their laurels will likely be enough for their first 268 votes. Outside of exceptional cases, all the GOP really have to work for is to add ONE MORE VOTE in order to win. The GOP can even afford to lose/ignore/sacrifice their likely/friendly votes by simply winning ONE contested state.

6. Dems, on the other hand, have to solidify their entire "friendly" group, and then they have to sweep the entirety of the swing states. The only real path that will ever be open for Dems will continue to be through the rust belt. And Dems have lost their ability to be convincing.

7. The only true swing states in this day and age are PA, WI, and MI (44 votes).

8. Democrats have spent years, if not decades, banking on Hispanic population growth being their big meal ticket. But it was always a strategy destined to fail.

9. Democrats tendency to think that Hispanics are mostly Democrat friendly types was always rooted in an old fashioned view of Hispanics in America, from when Hispanics were predominantly concentrated in deeply blue areas like California, New Jersey, and New York City. Dems just assumed all Hispanics would more or less think this way.

10. But Hispanics in those Democratic strongholds becoming Democrats was always more about local culture propagating itself, not about Hispanics inherently being inclined to be Democrats.

11. Culturally, many Hispanic Americans are actually likely to be inclined towards being rather conservative in many ways. The role of Christianity in many Latin American cultures is probably the most prominent example.

12. The flaw of the Hispanic plan has already showed itself in the red-cementing of FL. It will really blow up soon--within the next 10 years for sure, but possibly even this election.

13. Democrats stupidly blamed their 2016 loss on the country allegedly being sexist. They're already blaming Harris's under-performance now on the same, plus adding the racist card. Yeah, that stuff is an influence, but the real problem is that they're on the wrong train. Once again, they're not actually dealing with the real problems, so they're not going to be able to overcome their weaknesses.

14. What made 2020 exceptional was that the public was really sick and tired of Donald and his bullshit. But people are stupid and have short memories. They don't have the same sense of urgency this time around.

15. The only other potential to leverage something exceptional for this election will be if Harris is able to rock a stellar get-the-vote-out operation, and if Donald delivers an exceptionally abysmal effort on this front.

The only pathway to victory for Dems in 2020 was by way of extreme anomaly, they had to formulate a virus with China to create the opportunity.
On the issue of Hispanic voters….the Dem Party would have become irrelevant long ago if it not for Hispanics….They own CA, NV, AZ, NM, CO and much of TX on the backs of those here on stolen citizenships.

 

[Winco]

I already answered that. Might need to start calling you biden.
You are starting to bore me, old man.

I already answered that

Typical trump bootlicker answer.
Always the deflection with non-answer.

What makes you think we are the best nation in the world? In what way?
Our society gets more polarized every day. We are in debt we could never get out of. The govt grows bigger by the day. We lose rights by the day. More of the world hates us by the day because we cant mind our fucking business. Student achievement is in decline, and we literally pave the way for that to happen. We have left common sense, and gave rise to emotion. Because of cucks like you, Winco.
Do you want more? I can continue.

You think this ^^^^ is an answer.
You aren't telling me how "We are fucked" with any of these statements.

Are you not capable? ....it appears to be the case.

 

[TNHarley]

I already answered that

Typical trump bootlicker answer.
Always the deflection with non-answer.


You think this ^^^^ is an answer.
You aren't telling me how "We are fucked" with any of these statements.

Are you not capable? ....it appears to be t:

Yeah, destroying the future means nothing.
You just want to argue. Go argue with your dog. Faggot.

 

[Stormy Daniels]

My theory is based on the moving average of results over time driven by people moving into the state from the north and west due to weather and lower cost of living. Hispanic voting rates on implicit in the current trends.

These are the Presidential election results for Texas since 1980.

2020: R52%, D46%
2016: R52%, D43%
2012: R57%, D41%
2008: R55%, D44%
2004: R61%, D38%
2000: R59%, D38%
1996: R49%, D44%
1992: R41%, D37%
1988: R56%, D43%
1984: R64%, D36%
1980: R55%, D41%

The only notable "accomplishment" Democrats have made in the state was in 2020, when they finally managed to get more than 45% of the vote for the first time in decades. But as I said in the OP, 2020 was extraordinary, due just how stunningly awful Donald is. There's no "moving average" here. There's been four decades of up and down, but always resulting in a completely non-competitive result for Democrats.

 

[Picaro]

He also is going to get 20% of the black vote.

Yes, and probably more. I wouldn't be surprised at 25%.

 

[Missourian]

And Democrats are to blame.

1. The EC map is outright hostile to Democrats, and this will continue to be the case for a long time. Democrats need to reinvent themselves to change that. (See map.)

2. More specifically, the GOP can always be expected to start every Presidential election with 261 guaranteed votes (TX, FL, GA, AL, MS, LA, SC, NC, TN, AR, OK, AZ, UT, KY, MO, KS, WV, OH, IN, IA, NE4, WY, ID, MT, SD, ND, AK), with 7 more likely to go their way (MA1, NZ).

3. Dems will never change NC, GA, or AZ into realistically going blue in anything other than exceptional cases (which was the case in 2020).

4. By contrast, Dems have far fewer guaranteed votes, as more of their friendly states are potential risks to be flipped. Specifically, they can expect to have 191 guaranteed votes (VT, MA, CN, RI, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, CO, CA, OR, WA, MA1, HI), and 35 additional likely votes (MA2, NH, VA, NM, NE1, MN).

5. This means that for the GOP coasting and resting on their laurels will likely be enough for their first 268 votes. Outside of exceptional cases, all the GOP really have to work for is to add ONE MORE VOTE in order to win. The GOP can even afford to lose/ignore/sacrifice their likely/friendly votes by simply winning ONE contested state.

6. Dems, on the other hand, have to solidify their entire "friendly" group, and then they have to sweep the entirety of the swing states. The only real path that will ever be open for Dems will continue to be through the rust belt. And Dems have lost their ability to be convincing.

7. The only true swing states in this day and age are PA, WI, and MI (44 votes).

8. Democrats have spent years, if not decades, banking on Hispanic population growth being their big meal ticket. But it was always a strategy destined to fail.

9. Democrats tendency to think that Hispanics are mostly Democrat friendly types was always rooted in an old fashioned view of Hispanics in America, from when Hispanics were predominantly concentrated in deeply blue areas like California, New Jersey, and New York City. Dems just assumed all Hispanics would more or less think this way.

10. But Hispanics in those Democratic strongholds becoming Democrats was always more about local culture propagating itself, not about Hispanics inherently being inclined to be Democrats.

11. Culturally, many Hispanic Americans are actually likely to be inclined towards being rather conservative in many ways. The role of Christianity in many Latin American cultures is probably the most prominent example.

12. The flaw of the Hispanic plan has already showed itself in the red-cementing of FL. It will really blow up soon--within the next 10 years for sure, but possibly even this election.

13. Democrats stupidly blamed their 2016 loss on the country allegedly being sexist. They're already blaming Harris's under-performance now on the same, plus adding the racist card. Yeah, that stuff is an influence, but the real problem is that they're on the wrong train. Once again, they're not actually dealing with the real problems, so they're not going to be able to overcome their weaknesses.

14. What made 2020 exceptional was that the public was really sick and tired of Donald and his bullshit. But people are stupid and have short memories. They don't have the same sense of urgency this time around.

15. The only other potential to leverage something exceptional for this election will be if Harris is able to rock a stellar get-the-vote-out operation, and if Donald delivers an exceptionally abysmal effort on this front.

This is an excellent assessment...as far as it goes.

What you leave out is, the reason Democrats are losing is because they've departed the main line and are riding the crazy train.

Can't define what a woman is, they/them pronouns, biological men beating women in women's sports, upset that K-3rd grade aren't learning about gay blowjobs in the school library, releasing violent offenders with no bail, allowing people to shit on the streets, steal a thousand dollars worth of merchandise before the police will even come out and arrest them, opening up the border after Trump policies were reducing illegal immigration, demonizing the police, terrible electric car policies,. Tearing down statues of Lincoln and Columbus, a war on fossil fuels, taking China's side in the import imbalance, siding with Hamas on October 7th and protesting against Israel...and last buy not least...hating America.

Your party has lost the plot.

Time to get back on track.

Missouri used to be a swing state.

Ohio used to be a swing state

Florida used to be a swing state.

You've lost them all.

Missouri will be Trump +21 in the 2024 election.


Missouri was Trump +15 in 2020 and +19 in 2016.

 

[Missourian]

Sure, they do, Stormy. PA seems to be falling in place. My attitude is one of correcting the usual MAGA errors, and, in this case, that is yours.

I played this false optimism game when Romney was losing in '08.

It sucked.

And I was an ABR (anyone but Romney) in the primaries...which made it even more lousy.

It would have sucked worse if I actually believed he was winning.

 

[Missourian]

The Dems need PA.
The Reps need PA.

I've been saying this for months, the Key State is PA.

Keep the Dream Alive.
And when trump losses, ALL we will hear, in variations, is Stolllen Election part III.

Trump doesn't need PA.

Kamala needs to defend the entire blue wall and Nevada.

Run it through on 270towin.com

 

[Missourian]

For the past three years, polls have been widly skewed to Repubilcans. Nearly every time there's an election, the Democrat widly overperforms the polls.

Thaty means Republicans are doing even worse than it looks like.

In 2016 Clinton's aggregate poll number on election day was +3.2...in the actual election was Clinton +2.1.

In 2020 Biden's aggregate poll number on election day was +7.2...in the actual election it was only +4.5.


Stop drinking the Kool aid. The State of Denial has zero electoral votes.

 

[Missourian]

IDC who wins. Were fucked anyways.

SPOILER ALERT!!!