I agree. It will come down to which group is the most highly motivated for change of course. All things equal, the schism between the Trump wing and the RINOs would mean high times for the Dems. With an economy that may well be on its knees, inflation above 10% or higher, a population that has been taught to fear and despise each other, the results could be surprising IF we can have another trustworthy election.
The RINOs are going to be shown the door and those who escape that fate will become America First Republicans. Far from the Dems being favored in 2022, I think they could lose the House and Senate.
If electoral protections are not complied with and the belief remains that the elections are illegitimate then America as a unified nation is over. Secessionist movements should begin in earnest. It's a better solution than mass bloodshed and tribal wars.