Dems, don’t be surprised when you feel rather dry after the “blue tsunami” hits

[sakinago]

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Kolanovic, a top statistician/analyst with J.P. Morgan is using REAL tangible data, and actual science vs self reported “data” from outdated systems ripe with holes and blind spots (polling). It’d be one thing if the polls weren’t using complete dogshit methodologies, and weren’t obviously oversampling populations that don’t reliably vote and trend heavily to D’s. It would also be helpful for polls if people actual answered calls from unfamiliar numbers, forcing more and more polls to pursue methodologies like “opt-in” polls they know make the data worthless right off the bat. The same problems that made the polls wrong in 2016 have been turned up to 11 for 2020.

Here’s the gist of Klonovic’s pitch. Using the net change in overall new voter registration, backed up with the ACTUAL data of past elections and voter turnout to determine outcome. Yes there is causation, not correlation, to be found in this method. Republicans have been steadily kicking ass in this department, with a slight rise starting in 2012 turning into giant steps in 2016 and now. Basically Biden, a 77 year old with clear mental decline whose been hiding in the basement for most of the campaign, has to outperform Obama’s historic 2008 voter turnout in order to win. Not only does he have to outperform Obama, Trump, who got 90% of the R-voter share in 2016, has to drop to an unprecedented 77%. The cringeworthy McCain, generally considered an awful candidate by almost all Rs, got 86%...Your off your rocker if you believe trump is going to drop more than 2 pts of share. IF ANYTHING, trump is more likely going to pick up a larger share. Why? Republicans are more than “fired up” for trump. They are terrified of the left and what they’ve seen in the past couple of months, and highly motivated. On top of that, top national conservative radio shows/podcasts/websites who went hard in the paint against trump in 2016 are now solidly pro trump (I.e Ben Shapiro/daily wire, the largest, and The Blaze/Glenn Beck among other large names, the second largest). Trump is still packing stadiums. Trump lawn signs have turned into Trump flags. Anecdotally, every republican I know, in the burbs of philly mind you, have all said the same thing. “I know we say this every election, but this is the most important election of our lives by a mile.”

There is no doubt that Biden will outpredorm Hillary. However there’s no way in hell he outperforms Obama, and no way in hell trump underperforms what he did in 2016, which was a low bar to begin with.

Dems. You’ve been warned.

 

[mamooth]

You all said crap like this in 2018. How'd it work out?

Oh, that's right. The Democrats won bigger than expected. The polls undersampled Democrats.

Now, back in reality, Trump is gettting a much smaller share of the R-vote and the D-vote this year. Biden is getting a bigger share. Trump voters are much less energized this year. Anyone can see that Trump lawn signs and flags are few and far between compared to 2016.

 

[linux07]

 

[sakinago]

You all said crap like this in 2018. How'd it work out?

Oh, that's right. The dems won bigger than expected.

I didn’t say that crap. I don’t know who did. In midterms, voters of the sitting presidents party have notoriously low turnout, while the opposite party has very high turnout. That’s been true for a long time. Here’s an interesting note. The 2018 “blue wave” was a good win for dems, yes...but nowhere near the humiliating beat downs in 2010 and 2014 by republicans.

The article posted is how you use actual data from people whose livelihoods depend on being really really good at predicting trends in order to risk billions of dollars of investment money for their company. It would behoove you to read instead of dismiss.

 

[sakinago]

Ugh, speculation on trumps mindset from reporters who continue to repeat the lie that “trump called white supremacist good people”. Yeah that’s a great indicator.

HARD DATA PEOPLE. FROM PEOPLE VERY GOOD AT ANALYZING AND MAKING PREDICTIONS OFF THAT DATA. Not self reported data from population shares not even close to the demographic make up of the counties they’re in.

 

[mamooth]

The 2018 “blue wave” was a good win for dems, yes...but nowhere near the humiliating beat downs in 2010 and 2014 by republicans.

No, the Democratic win margin in 2018 was bigger than the Repubican win margin in 2010 and 2014. It resulted in fewer seats only because of massive Republican gerrymandering.

The article posted is how you use actual data from people whose livelihoods depend on being really really good at predicting trends in order to risk billions of dollars of investment money for their company. It would behoove you to read instead of dismiss.

Read it. He's ignoring the good hard data of the polls in favor of a fuzzy model. Throwing away the best data is a trait of pseudoscience. And why shouldn't he engage in pseudoscience? He's got no skin in the game. His past bad financial predictions haven't hurt him any. Het gets clicks with contrarian predictions.

 

[sakinago]

The 2018 “blue wave” was a good win for dems, yes...but nowhere near the humiliating beat downs in 2010 and 2014 by republicans.

No, the Democratic win margin in 2018 was bigger than the Repubican win margin in 2010 and 2014. It resulted in fewer seats only because of massive Republican gerrymandering.

The article posted is how you use actual data from people whose livelihoods depend on being really really good at predicting trends in order to risk billions of dollars of investment money for their company. It would behoove you to read instead of dismiss.

Read it. He's ignoring the good hard data of the polls in favor of a fuzzy model. Throwing away the best data is a trait of pseudoscience. And why shouldn't he engage in pseudoscience? He's got no skin in the game. His past bad financial predictions haven't hurt him any. Het gets clicks with contrarian predictions.

Oh it was gerrymandering hahaha. Ooookay.

 

[sakinago]

Yet another article doing the same thing. This time for Florida.

Pennsylvania was so Much Fun I Decided To Look at Florida Too -- More Bad News for Joe With an Caveat

Florida has been a GOP state for 20 years, and will remain such on Nov. 3.

www.redstate.com

 

[mamooth]

Oh it was gerrymandering hahaha. Ooookay.

This isn't debatable. The congressional vote shares:

2010 R+6.6
2014 R+7.0
2018 D+8.0

The 2018 Democratic win was bigger .So why are you trying to debate it? Just absorb the data and move on. You'd have been better off pointing out that after the 2010 red wave, Obama then easily won re-election in 2012.

 

[Maxdeath]

You all said crap like this in 2018. How'd it work out?

Oh, that's right. The Democrats won bigger than expected. The polls undersampled Democrats.

Now, back in reality, Trump is gettting a much smaller share of the R-vote and the D-vote this year. Biden is getting a bigger share. Trump voters are much less energized this year. Anyone can see that Trump lawn signs and flags are few and far between compared to 2016.

Has anyone noticed the feeling that we are in the middle of Groundhog Day?
We were assured by every crazy leftist that Hillary would win. They Had her agenda all ready set.
The media was assuring everyone that Trump had no path to the White House.

you can see the desperation in the left. They see that Biden is not going to win, but they also see democrats losing their power in the house and senate.

 

[Dogbiscuit]

they also see democrats losing their power in the house and senate.

Exactly.

 

[sakinago]

The 2018 “blue wave” was a good win for dems, yes...but nowhere near the humiliating beat downs in 2010 and 2014 by republicans.

No, the Democratic win margin in 2018 was bigger than the Repubican win margin in 2010 and 2014. It resulted in fewer seats only because of massive Republican gerrymandering.

The article posted is how you use actual data from people whose livelihoods depend on being really really good at predicting trends in order to risk billions of dollars of investment money for their company. It would behoove you to read instead of dismiss.

Read it. He's ignoring the good hard data of the polls in favor of a fuzzy model. Throwing away the best data is a trait of pseudoscience. And why shouldn't he engage in pseudoscience? He's got no skin in the game. His past bad financial predictions haven't hurt him any. Het gets clicks with contrarian predictions.

And no, the polls are the ones practicing pseudoscience. I’m having a hard time finding a reason to not call them straight up propaganda tools. I’m only going to say this once. IF YOU WANT AN ACCURATE POLL, THE CROSS-TAB DEMOGRAPHICS NEED TO REFLECT DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY YOU ARE POLLING. They aren't even close to doing that. That should be a no shit Sherlock statement, but apparently I have to keep explaining it to you twats because the media and the pollsters are in complete dereliction of duty. It’s not just the cross-tabs that are FUBAR in the polls, the methodology is so god awful it might as well be the psycho Keith Olbermen writing the questions.

Polls are an outdated method. Why? My personal theory is that China actually shot themselves in the foot with all the scam robo-calls. No one trusts unfamiliar numbers anymore, ipso-facto, they let it go to voicemail.if they don’t wind up hanging up immediately. Back in the day when land lines were relevant, polls were probably pretty reliable. People probably answered every time. You could probably a very nice picture of what the electorate is going to look like. Nowadays they aren’t even getting close the registered likely voters they should. That’s just the polls that haven’t gone with opt-in polling. Like I stated earlier, opt-in polling is dogshit. It completely removes that random aspect that is REQUIRED for accurate polling.

 

[mamooth]

IF YOU WANT AN ACCURATE POLL, THE CROSS-TAB DEMOGRAPHICS NEED TO REFLECT DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY YOU ARE POLLING.

The 2016 polls were within 1%. How did they get it so right, if you say they were so wrong?

How did the 2018 polls manage to underpredict the Democratic vote, if they're so biased for Democrats?

There are your theories, and then there's reality.

 

[EvilCat Breath]

Some democrats have been trying to soften the blow. The polls aren't being truthful.

 

[sakinago]

Oh it was gerrymandering hahaha. Ooookay.

This isn't debatable. The congressional vote shares:

2010 R+6.6
2014 R+7.0
2018 D+8.0

The 2018 Democratic win was bigger .So why are you trying to debate it? Just absorb the data and move on. You'd have been better off pointing out that after the 2010 red wave, Obama then easily won re-election in 2012.

Net seat change pumpkin.
2010
Senate +6
Congress +63

2014
Senate +9
Congress +13 (picking up 13 after 63 in 2010 is goddamn impressive)

2018
Senate R+2
Congress D+41

 

[sakinago]

IF YOU WANT AN ACCURATE POLL, THE CROSS-TAB DEMOGRAPHICS NEED TO REFLECT DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTY YOU ARE POLLING.

The 2016 polls were within 1%. How did they get it so right, if you say they were so wrong?

How did the 2018 polls manage to underpredict the Democratic vote, if they're so biased for Democrats?

There are your theories, and then there's reality.

What? Maybe one was. Most were not in the margin of error. And as I’ve stated, the problems with the 2016 polls in cross-tabs and methodology have been turned up to 11. It’s basically like pollsters have given up at attempting good methodology.

 

[mamooth]

Net seat change pumpkin.

Which is confirming my point about the gerrymandering. Democrats won a bigger vote share and gained fewer seats. That's because of the massive gerrymandering.

If you're going to deny reality to the extent that you pretend the gerrymandering wasn't a factor, there's little point in speaking with you.

 

[mamooth]

The polls aren't being truthful.

Well, they did undercount the Democratic vote in 2018, so it's likely they're undercounting the Democratic vote now.

 

[sakinago]

Net seat change pumpkin.

Which is confirming my point about the gerrymandering. Democrats won a bigger vote share and gained fewer seats. That's because of the massive gerrymandering.

If you're going to deny reality to the extent that you pretend the gerrymandering wasn't a factor, there's little point in speaking with you.

Whoa whoa whoa, denying reality???? To believe the polls, strictly going off what the polls are saying, you’d have to believe A. Biden is a stronger candidate than Obama circa 2008. And B. Trump is a worse incumbent than HW Bush circa 1992 WHEN THERE WAS A LEGIT 3rd party candidate in Ross Perot. The libertarian party that understandably had a good showing in 2016 is effectively dead in 2020. The surprisingly staunch conservative policy of Trump, and the lunacy of the left killed it. They’re voting trump. On top of that trump is polling the highest of any GOP candidate in modern history amongst Hispanics and blacks, and it’s not even close. These same polls are calling for only polling 10% of independents when independent registration has skyrocketed, while dem registration has been steadily loosing shares. Just to put things into perspective, independent turnout was 27% in 2016, and trump mopped up independents to the point his vote share was 101% R in Florida which is absurd.

No these polls aren’t even close to reflecting realty. Nor did they reflect realty in 2018. Gilliam was +7 in florida in a “referendum on trump election year” but lost to guy whose commercial was basically worshiping trump. These polls aren’t trying to suppress the GOP vote. GOP isn’t buying it. They’re preemptively trying to set up the narrative that trump “stole” the 2020 election. That’s how god awful and brazen the methodology and sampling is in these polls.

 

[sakinago]

More hard tangible data. Basically everybody, including me, has been operating on the assumption that Dems would lead in early voting and mail ins. Then on Election Day the numbers tighten. Just like they do every election. For basically the first time ever Trump is up in key states with early voting and mail-ins. #turntexasblue is falling flat on its face with trump +11 so far. Michigan 41%-39% Trump. Ohio 46%-11%. Wisconsin 40%-38% Trump. Arizona ties at 36%.

This is nothing short of SHOCKING, and Biden camp should be shitting it’s britches.