The Helmut Norpoth Model ...Trump is going to win!

Jackson

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Dec 31, 2010
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Professor Norpoth just as confidently predicts that Trump will trounce Joe Biden in November. Specifically, he gives the president a 91 percent chance of winning the election with an unambiguous 362-176 Electoral College margin.

If this seems implausible, considering the avalanche of polls that portend Trump’s imminent political demise, it will seem less so when Norpoth’s track record is taken into account.

The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”




And this was written before the Hunter - Joe Corruption News! He has been right 25 of the last 27 elections...including last year.

Just look at the rallies of Joe (how few there are) and the turnout for Trump..... signs of a win for Trump!
 
I have been in a number of states. I see Trump signs all over. See a Biden sign once in a great while. I have talked to over 400 seniors and only one would vote for Biden but says he has not voted in ten years and has no plans of voting this year. His reason for voting for Biden is because Biden is a politician and Trump is not.
 
The model, if I understand it, pretty much follows a historical perspective. Historically it is difficult to unseat an incumbent president or for a party to retain the presidency beyond 8 years. Biden's early primary results weren't all that good which doesn't bode well. Basically his campaign simply amounts to being the "other guy" and not Trump. If betting I would do so based on the historical perspective, but my wager would be minimal.
 

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