Lockdown defenders are trying to make Sweden’s moderate COVID-19 approach seem unsuccessful. They are doing this by making selective comparisons and by ignoring Sweden’s extremely low overall COVID-19 death rate.
As of this morning, Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate is 0.02321% (2,274 deaths out of 10.23 million people). 0.02321% is 43 times lower than 1%.
Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate compares very favorably with that of many other European nations:
Belgium------------ 0.06398%
Spain--------------- 0.05080%
Italy----------------- 0.04470%
France------------- 0.03558%
Netherlands------- 0.02615%
Sweden------------ 0.02321% <<<
Ireland-------------- 0.02250%
Switzerland-------- 0.01957%
Germany----------- 0.00738%
Norway------------- 0.00368%
Let us compare Sweden and Michigan’s COVID-19 numbers, since the two states are almost identical in population size but have used very different approaches in responding to the virus. While Sweden has taken a moderate approach to COVID-19, Michigan has imposed an extreme lockdown on its citizens. Yet, as of this morning, Michigan has had 38,000 cases and 3,407 deaths, while Sweden has had 18,926 cases and 2,274 deaths. In other words, Sweden has had over 19,000 fewer cases and over 1,100 fewer deaths than Michigan has had. Translated into percentages, this means Sweden has had 50% fewer cases and 33% fewer deaths than Michigan has had.
Or, let us compare Sweden and France’s COVID-19 numbers, since France has been under an extreme lockdown since mid-March. France’s population is 6.549 times larger than Sweden’s. So we will multiply Sweden’s population by 6.549 and adjust its COVID-19 numbers accordingly. When we do so, here is how Sweden’s COVID-19 numbers compare with France’s:
SWEDEN ------------------------- FRANCE
123,945 cases ------------------ 165,842 cases
14,892 deaths ------------------- 23,293 deaths
So, when we adjust for population size, Sweden has had over 40,000 fewer cases and over 8,000 fewer deaths than France has had.
If we applied Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.02321% to the U.S. population, that would equal 76,175 deaths, which would be within ballpark range of the number of deaths from a bad flu season and would not even rank among the top eight causes of death in the U.S. Here are the top 10 causes of death in the U.S.:
DEATHS PER YEAR --- CAUSE
640,000 ----- heart disease
590,000 ----- cancer
250,000 ----- medical errors
169,000 –--- accidents
160,000 ----- chronic lower respiratory diseases
146,000 ----- strokes/cerebrovascular diseases
121,000 ----- Alzheimer’s
83,000 ------- diabetes
61,000 ------- common flu (2017-2018 flu season)
50,000 ------- pneumonia, kidney disease (each kills 50K per year)
So if we had Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.02321%, COVID-19 would rank below diabetes and far below accidents, medical errors, cancer, and heart disease as a cause of death in the U.S. It would rank ninth out of 10. No rational country on Earth would shut down half of its economy and put millions of people out of work to guard against a virus that ranked ninth as a cause of death and that had an overall death rate 43 times lower than 1%.
Does this mean we should do nothing? No, of course not. It does mean we should adopt a much more targeted, data-based approach (1) that places restrictions on the elderly and the medically ill, since they account for at least 80% of our COVID-19 deaths, and (2) that allows everyone else to resume normal life.
Here is an article, published yesterday, that provides a detailed, balanced appraisal of Sweden’s approach:
qz.com
As of this morning, Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate is 0.02321% (2,274 deaths out of 10.23 million people). 0.02321% is 43 times lower than 1%.
Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate compares very favorably with that of many other European nations:
Belgium------------ 0.06398%
Spain--------------- 0.05080%
Italy----------------- 0.04470%
France------------- 0.03558%
Netherlands------- 0.02615%
Sweden------------ 0.02321% <<<
Ireland-------------- 0.02250%
Switzerland-------- 0.01957%
Germany----------- 0.00738%
Norway------------- 0.00368%
Let us compare Sweden and Michigan’s COVID-19 numbers, since the two states are almost identical in population size but have used very different approaches in responding to the virus. While Sweden has taken a moderate approach to COVID-19, Michigan has imposed an extreme lockdown on its citizens. Yet, as of this morning, Michigan has had 38,000 cases and 3,407 deaths, while Sweden has had 18,926 cases and 2,274 deaths. In other words, Sweden has had over 19,000 fewer cases and over 1,100 fewer deaths than Michigan has had. Translated into percentages, this means Sweden has had 50% fewer cases and 33% fewer deaths than Michigan has had.
Or, let us compare Sweden and France’s COVID-19 numbers, since France has been under an extreme lockdown since mid-March. France’s population is 6.549 times larger than Sweden’s. So we will multiply Sweden’s population by 6.549 and adjust its COVID-19 numbers accordingly. When we do so, here is how Sweden’s COVID-19 numbers compare with France’s:
SWEDEN ------------------------- FRANCE
123,945 cases ------------------ 165,842 cases
14,892 deaths ------------------- 23,293 deaths
So, when we adjust for population size, Sweden has had over 40,000 fewer cases and over 8,000 fewer deaths than France has had.
If we applied Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.02321% to the U.S. population, that would equal 76,175 deaths, which would be within ballpark range of the number of deaths from a bad flu season and would not even rank among the top eight causes of death in the U.S. Here are the top 10 causes of death in the U.S.:
DEATHS PER YEAR --- CAUSE
640,000 ----- heart disease
590,000 ----- cancer
250,000 ----- medical errors
169,000 –--- accidents
160,000 ----- chronic lower respiratory diseases
146,000 ----- strokes/cerebrovascular diseases
121,000 ----- Alzheimer’s
83,000 ------- diabetes
61,000 ------- common flu (2017-2018 flu season)
50,000 ------- pneumonia, kidney disease (each kills 50K per year)
So if we had Sweden’s overall COVID-19 death rate of 0.02321%, COVID-19 would rank below diabetes and far below accidents, medical errors, cancer, and heart disease as a cause of death in the U.S. It would rank ninth out of 10. No rational country on Earth would shut down half of its economy and put millions of people out of work to guard against a virus that ranked ninth as a cause of death and that had an overall death rate 43 times lower than 1%.
Does this mean we should do nothing? No, of course not. It does mean we should adopt a much more targeted, data-based approach (1) that places restrictions on the elderly and the medically ill, since they account for at least 80% of our COVID-19 deaths, and (2) that allows everyone else to resume normal life.
Here is an article, published yesterday, that provides a detailed, balanced appraisal of Sweden’s approach:
Sweden is taking a very different approach to Covid-19
Swedish policy is predicated on trust between citizens and government. Will it work?
qz.com
