Can a centrist win Florida?

amrchaos

Pentheus torn apart
Joined
Nov 1, 2008
Messages
9,498
Reaction score
932
Points
215
Location
Miami
On the surface, Charlie Crist is now trailing a distant second(losing by 9% to Rubio). But if the polls are accurate, Rubio will need at least a 42% favoring to have a chance at winning a run-off.

Why is that--Meeks is holding down the left(18%) vote and 3/4 of undecided independents fleeing right are the only hope for Rubio to take the election.(The arguement for the 3/4 is to assume they are part of the right wing populist movement. Fortunately for Christ, this is an overestimate to account for lack of enthusiasm of the left for Crist.)

A strange election math, is it not? But not to strange if you consider that NO, let me repeat, NO supporter of Meeks will endorse nor vote for Rubio unless Rubio cuts a deal with the left. Waiting for Hell to freeze over or Pigs to sprout wings is most likely than that to occur--unless Rubio is a much more calculating politician than Crist.

As of now, I give Crist a 60% chance of pulling off a "non-tea party affiliated" upset


What do you think?
 

rightwinger

Award Winning USMB Paid Messageboard Poster
Joined
Aug 4, 2009
Messages
212,883
Reaction score
38,750
Points
2,190
I think the Tea party has fucked up another can't lose seat
 
OP
amrchaos

amrchaos

Pentheus torn apart
Joined
Nov 1, 2008
Messages
9,498
Reaction score
932
Points
215
Location
Miami
There is not a certified Tea Party candidate here in Florida, and Meeks did not poll well against any individuals either.

The race looks like it is between the Gov and the Speaker of the House. It is like a Republican primary with the exception that everyone gets to vote.
 

Toro

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 29, 2005
Messages
80,714
Reaction score
18,275
Points
2,180
Location
Surfing the Oceans of Liquidity
He's not going to win, but yes, a centrist can win in Florida. But the centrist has to have the machinery of a political party behind him or her.
 

Polk

Classic
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
9,791
Reaction score
577
Points
138
Location
Ost
I don't think Florida law requires a runoff.
 

Polk

Classic
Joined
Aug 25, 2009
Messages
9,791
Reaction score
577
Points
138
Location
Ost
He's not going to win, but yes, a centrist can win in Florida. But the centrist has to have the machinery of a political party behind him or her.
Agreed, though the Democrats could pull the plug on Meek in the hopes that Crist will caucus with them (which is very, very likely).
 

rightwinger

Award Winning USMB Paid Messageboard Poster
Joined
Aug 4, 2009
Messages
212,883
Reaction score
38,750
Points
2,190
He's not going to win, but yes, a centrist can win in Florida. But the centrist has to have the machinery of a political party behind him or her.
Agreed, though the Democrats could pull the plug on Meek in the hopes that Crist will caucus with them (which is very, very likely).
Meek does not have a chance, but Christ has more statewide appeal
 

WillowTree

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2008
Messages
84,415
Reaction score
15,877
Points
2,180
Senator Rubio has a lot going for him. He's a fiscal conservative. He's very young. good looking and hispanic. Florida has a large population of hispanics.. Jeb Bush has a good looking hispanic wife too.. Jeb Bush love Senator Rubio. and so do I. JEB has an even better looking hispanic son..
 

WillowTree

Diamond Member
Joined
Sep 15, 2008
Messages
84,415
Reaction score
15,877
Points
2,180
He's not going to win, but yes, a centrist can win in Florida. But the centrist has to have the machinery of a political party behind him or her.
Agreed, though the Democrats could pull the plug on Meek in the hopes that Crist will caucus with them (which is very, very likely).
Meek does not have a chance, but Christ has more statewide appeal
Someone put this better than I but here goes.. when one leaves a party the party one left no longer trusts you,, also the party you went to doesn't trust you either.. ask arlen..
 

New Topics

Most reactions - Past 7 days

Forum List

Top