Thomas Massie's chances of winning primary plunge on eve of Election Day

[1srelluc]

MSN

Representative Thomas Massie’s chances of winning against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District have plunged one day before the election.

Early Monday, Massie, who had previously been the favorite on prediction markets, slipped down to a 43 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Poloymarket, down from 61 percent and 56 percent respectively on Saturday, as in-person early voting ended.

I don't know about those "prediction markets" but some here put faith in them. I prefer to let the voters decide.

Traditional polls show roughly the same thing.

New poll shows Gallrein overtaking Massie in GOP primary

GOP primary​

Photo by: Jon Cherry/AP
Congressional candidate Ed Gallrein speaks as President Donald Trump listens at Verst Logistics Contract Packaging Facility Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Hebron, Ky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)


FRANKFORT, Ky. — A new Quantus Insights poll published on May 13 shows Rep. Thomas Massie now trailing former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District GOP primary election.

In the new poll, Quantus Insights showed Gallrein moving ahead of Massie, 53% to 45% — an eight-point margin. The same pollster previously showed Massie ahead 47% to 38%.

 

[gipper]

MSN

Representative Thomas Massie’s chances of winning against Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District have plunged one day before the election.

Early Monday, Massie, who had previously been the favorite on prediction markets, slipped down to a 43 percent chance of victory on both Kalshi and Poloymarket, down from 61 percent and 56 percent respectively on Saturday, as in-person early voting ended.

I don't know about those "prediction markets" but some here put faith in them. I prefer to let the voters decide.

Traditional polls show roughly the same thing.

New poll shows Gallrein overtaking Massie in GOP primary

GOP primary​

Photo by: Jon Cherry/AP
Congressional candidate Ed Gallrein speaks as President Donald Trump listens at Verst Logistics Contract Packaging Facility Wednesday, March 11, 2026, in Hebron, Ky. (AP Photo/Jon Cherry)


FRANKFORT, Ky. — A new Quantus Insights poll published on May 13 shows Rep. Thomas Massie now trailing former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District GOP primary election.

In the new poll, Quantus Insights showed Gallrein moving ahead of Massie, 53% to 45% — an eight-point margin. The same pollster previously showed Massie ahead 47% to 38%.

Losing one of the last few real Americans in Congress, will be an awful shame. It’s already full of traitors for Israel.

 

[Mac1958]

From what I've seen, Libertarians and real Conservatives don't support America becoming a theocracy.

 

[Hafar1014]

Losing one of the last few real Americans in Congress, will be an awful shame. It’s already full of traitors for Israel.

Kick the RINO out

 

[BlindBoo]

Good. It continues to show the rest of America the radical jump to the Right New Republican party endorses. To keep power they need an illiberal, authoritarian, minority rule model, to be able to rule over this ever increasingly diverse nation.

 

[gipper]

Kick the RINO out

Trump?

 

[Hafar1014]

Good. It continues to show the rest of America the radical jump to the Right New Republican party endorses. To keep power they need an illiberal, authoritarian, minority rule model, to be able to rule over this ever increasingly diverse nation

Diversity isnt a moral value unity is and kicking this RINO out is a step in the right direction

 

[ColonelAngus]

It is a shame people are so easily manipulated by propaganda.

Left or right.

I like Massie and he serves a purpose. I disagree with noecons and Trump on this one.

IT DOES NOT MEAN I WISH KAMALA WAS PRESIDENT.

 

[Care4all]

The odds changed after Senator Cassidy lost his primary....

 

[TNHarley]

Kick the RINO out

So real republicans value war, pedophiles and a lot of debt?

 

[ColonelAngus]

Massie is not a Pub. Libertarian.

He serves a good purpose.

The real problem is the Dems, not Massie.

 

[1srelluc]

I’ll commend Massie for his position on gun rights, but the way he and other libertarians treat the illegal immigration issue absolutely sucks.

I know libertarians feel great about being an absolutist on every damn issue, but at some point, they have to be part of getting the right-leaning ball rolling.

The perfect path Massie insists that we wait on to appear isn’t going to appear before the far left one does.....It's really just that simple, so pick your poison.

The mere fact that Massie is running as a republican is a canard in and of itself.....He needed to run as the (Large L) Libertarian that he is but he knows he would not get any traction that way.

 

[ColonelAngus]

I’ll commend Massie for his position on gun rights, but the way he and other libertarians treat the illegal immigration issue absolutely sucks.

I know libertarians feel great about being an absolutist on every damn issue, but at some point, they have to be part of getting the right-leaning ball rolling.

The perfect path Massie insists that we wait on to appear isn’t going to appear before the far left one does.....It's really just that simple so pick your poison.

The mere fact that Massie is running as a republican is a canard in and of itself.....He needed to run as the (Large L) Libertarian that he is but he knows he would not get any traction that way.

I broadly agree with you, but we should have room at the table for people like Massie.

The real problem is people those in the Congressional Progressive Caucus like Barbara Lee and Raul Grijalva. There are like 100 straight up communists in Congress.

 

[wamose]

Massey is like Paul. He professes fiscal responsibility, which is good, but he's weak and has no persuasive ability. They're both grandstanders and showboats. And they're both half assed Libertarians, who believe in open borders and legalizing all drugs. Massey and Paul do more to aid the Democrats 'new communism' than they do to support America first policies. They're bad news.

 

[TNHarley]

Massey is like Paul. He professes fiscal responsibility, which is good, but he's weak and has no persuasive ability. They're both grandstanders and showboats. And they're both half assed Libertarians, who believe in open borders and legalizing all drugs. Massey and Paul do more to aid the Democrats 'new communism' than they do to support America first policies. He's bad news.

Like codifying DOGE cuts? Yeah, thats not American first.
Must be why MAGA shunned him for trying to codify them.

 

[1srelluc]

I broadly agree with you, but we should have room at the table for people like Massie.

The real problem is people those in the Congressional Progressive Caucus like Barbara Lee and Raul Grijalva. There are like 100 straight up communists in Congress.

Massie votes with them because he's an absolutist.

 

[Hafar1014]

Massie can get a job in Iran

 

[ColonelAngus]

Massie votes with them because he's an absolutist.

Understood. He is a principled Libertarian.

He is not for expanding SCOTUS…AS THE CPC is.

They are communists. He is a libertarian.

Of course I understand taking each vote within the greater context of the results.

For example, Massie did not vote to impeach Trump. CDC did.

 

[BlindBoo]

Diversity isnt a moral value unity is and kicking this RINO out is a step in the right direction

The increasing diversity in American is not about morality or immorality. It has been a statistical fact for over a millennium. Moderate centrist have no place in the New Radical Republican illiberals.

 

[1srelluc]

Understood. He is a principled Libertarian.

Then he should have ran as one.