Arctic Mimimum ?? If the cold continues.... Yes!

[Billy_Bob]

In a forecast discussion earlier today, we discussed the potential minimum ice extent has been reached a full 7 weeks early. Say What?????

If the current conditions hold, we have seen the minimum sea ice extent in the arctic already this year. With ambient air temps now below 26 deg F at the hottest time of the arctic day, ice creation is now a sure bet.

http://osisaf.met.no/quicklooks/sie_graphs/nh/en/osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_2019.png

Our cold Northern Hemisphere winter is in full motion...

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL...

My E-Mail to friends over at the Boulder AP lab are interesting... It seems that three scheduled attempts to traverse the Arctic route have been scraped! The ice is now over 4' thick and expanding rapidly. No one is going through that region now as even the high powered Russian ice breakers will no longer take that chance of being trapped for months.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Interesting that US data products fail to show reality in sea ice production.. I would really like to know why they are manipulating the data.

 

[Old Rocks]

You remain just as stupid as you have ever been.


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[Billy_Bob]

You remain just as stupid as you have ever been.


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And which site did you pull that from? All US sites fail to show this.

Never mind... Found it... and the change time stamp was 0900 PST TODAY... they just corrected their data.. Must have found out that they could no longer "hide the decline" in ice loss........LOL

 

[Sunsettommy]

You remain just as stupid as you have ever been.


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YOU continue to ignore the fact that the decline has STOPPED since 2006. 12 years now and the ice levels, while low in the Summer has stabilized. Polar Bears are not struggling with it because Summer ice doesn't matter much to them as they have eaten most of their calorie needs for the rest of the year by early July. They live off their fat for the lean late fall and winter months.

From HERE:

John Tillman writes,

Arctic sea ice minima:

2012: 3387 (Cyclone)
2007: 4155 (Cyclone)
2016: 4165 (Two cyclones, super El Nino)
2011: 4344
2015: 4433

2008: 4590
2010: 4615
2018: 4656
2017: 4665
2014: 5029

2013: 5054
2009: 5119

and HERE,

Griff,

As of yesterday, this year was third lowest for Sept 1. As with all lower years, 2019 was plagued by cyclones, the last of which hit on August 26. It’s just WX, not CO2. If an fourth molecule of plant food per 10,000 dry air molecules since 1850 is to blame, then why did Antarctic sea ice grow from 1979 to its maximum in 2014, while Arctic fell until 2012?

Where this year will end up deepends on WX between now and whenever the minimum is observed. Here is how it stood yesterday, in 000 sq km, according to the NSIDC:

2012: 3867
2016: 4453
2019: 4567
2015: 4593
2007: 4600
2011: 4668.

The rank for minima ended up:

2012: 3387
2007: 4155
2016: 4165
2011: 4344
2015: 4433

2008: 4590
2010: 4615
2018: 4656
2017: 4665

2014: 5029
2013: 5054
2009: 5119

So the median for the past 12 years is about 4.6 million sq km. This year will come in under that, but that doesn’t indicate a down trend. The fact is that 2012 remains the low. Arctic sea ice hasn’t made a new, lower low since then, whereas from 1979 to 2012, it did so at least every five years. The trend will remain flat since 2007 and up since 2012.

This year could finish second, third, fourth, fifth or sixth, depending upon WX, without affecting those trends.

Sea ice is cyclic. For most of the Holocene, summer minimum was lower than now. The dedicated satellite record began near the high for the 20th century.:

bolding mine

====================

As usual you get caught with YOUR B.S.

Grow up and drop the dishonest claims.

 

[abu afak]

Short term Arctic minimums, and other Regional events mean nothing to GW/AGW.

The current Solar Minimum may be lowering temps the last few years (17/18 weren't record highs), but none of that changes the fact that GHGs are putting an ever thickening blanket on us even if the very Strong Solar factor overrides it in the short term.
Even a longer term (ie) Maunder Minimum event will be warmer than it would have been because of that blanket.

I truly hope we ARE getting a 30 year Maunder event as that Will give the planet a reprieve and time to transition away from Fossil fuel burning and other human driven GHGs like Methane.

That's right, I'm rooting for (solar min) colder (!) even though you Clowns will call/mistake that as "proof" that humans/GHGs don't cause warming.

`

 

[mamooth]

LOL...

My E-Mail to friends over at the Boulder AP lab are interesting... It seems that three scheduled attempts to traverse the Arctic route have been scraped! The ice is now over 4' thick and expanding rapidly. No one is going through that region now as even the high powered Russian ice breakers will no longer take that chance of being trapped for months.

As usual, you suck balls at lying. The northwest passage is wide open, and it's been open since mid-August. A fiberglass sailboat could traverse it now. The northeast passage opened up completely a week earlier.

Tommy, Frank, Nut, do you care that Billy lied to your faces, or does knowing that just cause you to suck his ass even harder?

 

[Billy_Bob]

LOL...

My E-Mail to friends over at the Boulder AP lab are interesting... It seems that three scheduled attempts to traverse the Arctic route have been scraped! The ice is now over 4' thick and expanding rapidly. No one is going through that region now as even the high powered Russian ice breakers will no longer take that chance of being trapped for months.

As usual, you suck balls at lying. The northwest passage is wide open, and it's been open since mid-August. A fiberglass sailboat could traverse it now. The northeast passage opened up completely a week earlier.

Tommy, Frank, Nut, do you care that Billy lied to your faces, or does knowing that just cause you to suck his ass even harder?

WOW this map is from JULY..... LOL in your stupid face...

 

[Billy_Bob]

We have hit bottom it is now growing....

 

[mamooth]

WOW this map is from JULY..... LOL in your stupid face...

Which would be why the very clear date on it says 06 Sep 2019. If it was a July map, the strait would have still been blocked by ice. It takes until mid-August at least for the NW passage to open.

So, again, the question: Are you lying, or are you being a moron?

Oh, here's the latest ice map, for 14 Sep 2019. There's even less ice in the NW passage now.

 

[mamooth]

We have hit bottom it is now growing....

Billy's post was followed by large extent drops on Sep 11, 12 and 13,

That's the peril of forecasting day-by-day. You just can't. When near minimum, it's the winds that determine the final outcome, not the temperature. For a few days prior, winds were in a spreading pattern, which increased ice extent. Now winds are back to a compacting pattern.

In any case, 2019 has gone below 2007 to hit the 3rd lowest extent on record, behind 2012 and 2016.

 

[TroglocratsRdumb]

people have driven to the north pole on the ice

 

[Billy_Bob]

DMI has us on the increase.... So much for melting...

 

[mamooth]

DMI has us on the increase....

Not according to that graph, which is too garbled to see anything. According to both the JAXA and NSIDC numbers, there was another significant loss on Sep 14.

So much for melting...

That's quite possible, since the current date is right in the middle of the spread of dates where the Arctic sea ice extent turns around. It's quite possible that extent shows an increase for Sep 15/

It's just dumb to keep calling every day as the minimum. There's no way to know what that date was until you see several days of healthy extent increase afterwards. And the date is meaningless anyways, because, again, we're right in the middle of the turnaround date range.

 

[mamooth]

people have driven to the north pole on the ice

True dat. In 1968, the 4-man Plaisted Expedition reached the geographic north pole on snowmobiles, being resupplied with fuel by air drops. They may have been the first team to reach the north pole overland, as the claims of the Peary and Cook expeditions are questionable. Amundsen reached the north pole by airplane, while others reached it by icebreaker or submarine.

Such an overland trek probably couldn't be done now by snowmobile. There are too many leads in the ice now, even in winter. Making it would require vehicles with some amphibious capability. The last completely overland trek to the north pole by anyone was in 2014.

There was a 2007 TV special about driving to the magnetic north pole in a modified truck, which is a totally different thing, as the magnetic north pole is on or close to land.

 

[baileyn45]

Short term Arctic minimums, and other Regional events mean nothing to GW/AGW.

The current Solar Minimum may be lowering temps the last few years (17/18 weren't record highs), but none of that changes the fact that GHGs are putting an ever thickening blanket on us even if the very Strong Solar factor overrides it in the short term.
Even a longer term (ie) Maunder Minimum event will be warmer than it would have been because of that blanket.

I truly hope we ARE getting a 30 year Maunder event as that Will give the planet a reprieve and time to transition away from Fossil fuel burning and other human driven GHGs like Methane.

That's right, I'm rooting for (solar min) colder (!) even though you Clowns will call/mistake that as "proof" that humans/GHGs don't cause warming.

`

An ever thickening blanket? Yeesh, could you be a bit more hyperbolic? Care to show us the science that backs up the thought that a 120 ppm increase in CO2 overrides natural variability? It would be very interesting since you and no one else can explain natural variability.

Think about it. What caused the Little Ice Age? If you can't answer that you can't begin to tell me that 120 ppm of CO2 can overwhelm those causes. this isn't rocket science, it's basic logic. You have no idea of what caused changes in the past, and yet you know exactly what's causing current changes. Pure nonsense. if there is one thing that seperates skeptics from alarmists it's that the skeptics have the balls to admit they don't know things. The alarmists are absolutely sure of everything, even when any rational human being knows that they can't be certain.

If you can't explain natural variability, you can't begin to explain current trends, you just can't. Welcome to science.