Meathead
Toddsterpatriot
Here is the CBO report:
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/53651-outlook.pdf
Projections of federal revenues depend on aggregate income—the total amount of income in the economy— and on the way it is distributed among various categories, such as labor income, domestic corporate profits, proprietors’ income, and interest and dividend income. CBO therefore projects income in those categories over the next 11 years, estimating each category’s share of GDP. The categories that affect revenues most strongly are labor income (especially wage and salary payments) and domestic corporate profits.
Increases in U.S. borrowing from abroad imply that a greater share of domestically generated income will flow to foreign investors.
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Domestic Income Earned by Foreign Investors
Over the next 11 years, U.S. national income (the income that accrues to U.S. residents as measured by GNP) is projected to grow at a slightly slower pace than income from U.S. domestic production (as measured by GDP). GNP is a better measure of the income available to U.S. residents because it includes net international income flows—the income that U.S. residents earn from working and investing abroad minus the income that nonresidents earn from working and investing in the United States. From 2018 to 2028, net international income is projected to fall from 0.9 percent of GDP to roughly 0.4 percent. As a result, in CBO’s projections, GNP grows about 0.1 percentage point less per year than GDP grows over the 2018–2028 period.
Net international income is expected to fall over the next 11 years for two reasons. First, under current law, in CBO’s projections, the amount of net borrowing from foreigners to finance domestic investment increases, as do federal budget deficits. For all but one of the past 35 years, the United States has been a net borrower on world capital markets and thus its net international lending (national saving minus domestic investment) has been negative, on average.10 In CBO’s forecast, net international lending declines from –2.5 percent of GDP in the 2015–2017 period to an average of –3.5 percent from 2018 to 2028. The second reason is that U.S. borrowing from abroad becomes more expensive as interest rates rise in the United States.