Worse than the Great Depression?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by eagleseven, Jul 8, 2009.

  1. eagleseven
    Offline

    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2009
    Messages:
    6,518
    Thanks Received:
    1,254
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    OH
    Ratings:
    +1,255
    Here are some startling datasets from the past several months, and their Great-Depression counterparts...

    As you can see, the world is tanking far faster than it did in the beginning of the Great Depression. While this may be a case of "the larger they are, the harder they fall," there's no pleasant way to spin those charts.

    If you check the link for the full set up analyses, it appears that Europe has been hardest hit, with the Americas and the Far East taking the second largest hit, and the developing world taking the smallest proportional hit.

    Now, as Dr. Pavan, an Italian economist, explained to me, the European social economic structure does not allow the continent to recover quickly from any recession. The combination of strict hiring/firing regulations and thick safety nets makes for a rigid labor market that will ensure Europe's depression for at least the next half-decade.

    For comparison, from the same site as above,

    Italy's economy, with its tough labor regulations, has effectively flatlined, collapsing far faster than it did in the 1930s. By comparison, the US has fallen a third as far, and is out-performing the US of the Great Depression, if only marginally.

    If history is any indication, we are in for a long, deep depression, and we shouldn't be fooled by unreliable lagging indicators.

    Your thoughts?
     
  2. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    Interesting.

    Even though all of one's yesterdays don't add up to one tomorrow, it appears that those who've re-written the history of the Great Depression have bought into the fable.

    Looks to me like they're traveling down the same road with the attitude that this time it'll be different.
     
  3. Baruch Menachem
    Offline

    Baruch Menachem '

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2008
    Messages:
    14,204
    Thanks Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    185
    Ratings:
    +3,305
    Well, we do have a choice. We seem to be making the wrong one all the time, but it doesn't have to follow the same course.

    0bama needs to look at where he wants to go. We have the example of how things work well, and how things work badly. He can make the right choice if he wants.

    As for things being as bad, well right now they aren't. I have been out of work since May 1st. The department where I used to work has reduced staff by 30%. But I still get severance, and after that is over I get unemployment for 30 weeks. this is not like the conditions in 1929 where out of work meant no food or shelter immediately.

    Of course, it all depends on what congress does in the next month. If they pass Cap and Trade and the new health care bill, then we will be eating rice if we are lucky.

    We may have hit the iceberg, but I am confident of my place in the rowboat.
     
  4. wimpy77
    Offline

    wimpy77 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Thanks Received:
    10
    Trophy Points:
    16
    Ratings:
    +10
    i dont see cap and trade being passed anytime soon. and the healthcare bill isn't probably gonna be passed for a while either.
     
  5. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,409
    For everything I've seen from the guy, he really, really isn't that smart.
     
  6. etouffe123
    Offline

    etouffe123 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2009
    Messages:
    23
    Thanks Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Ratings:
    +3
    I missed the source of the data?
    Social Security and unemployment are in place where they were not in the 1930's.
    Its easier to rebound when manufacturing is not the base of your GDP.
    Mismanaged companies can survive in a booming economy and cannot in a falling one thus a recession is a process whereby the lean and mean survive and the others do not. This results in a more efficient capitalistic system.
    Obama was smart enough to get elected to President. If he is smart enough to select and listen to good advisers (vs listening to Cheney and Rumsfeld) he should weather the storm.
     
  7. Baruch Menachem
    Offline

    Baruch Menachem '

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2008
    Messages:
    14,204
    Thanks Received:
    3,235
    Trophy Points:
    185
    Ratings:
    +3,305
    Smart enough to get elected.... I think most of the smarts were Alinsky's. And most of the dollars were Soros'. 0bama was smart enough to get elected in the same way Harding was smart enough to get elected.
     
  8. eagleseven
    Offline

    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2009
    Messages:
    6,518
    Thanks Received:
    1,254
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    OH
    Ratings:
    +1,255
    I cited the original article written by Dr. Eichengreen of Berkeley and Dr. O'Rourke of Trinity College Dublin in my OP. If you want to read further, here are their cited references.

    So why is Obama busy injecting billions of dollars (financed by China) into failed companies such as GM and Chrystler? He's directly interrupting the regenerative flow of the free market...and I suspect UAW campaign contributions may be the cause.

    Rather than letting them collapse, Obama is embalming and zombifying failed business, throwing our good money after bad.
    This is no longer hypothetical. Obama has been President for almost six months. He chose this guy.
    [​IMG]

    Geitner, the man who "couldn't learn turbotax," doesn't exactly inspire confidence...
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2009
  9. American Horse
    Offline

    American Horse AKA "Mustang"

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    5,741
    Thanks Received:
    892
    Trophy Points:
    153
    Location:
    The Hoosier Heartland
    Ratings:
    +938
    He's an ideologue with an agenda. He will, if allowed to, move forward based on his ideology, practical problems along the way...be damned.
     
  10. Midnight Marauder
    Offline

    Midnight Marauder BANNED

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2009
    Messages:
    12,404
    Thanks Received:
    1,876
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1,876
    :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

    Thanks for the belly laugh.

    Obama has surrounded himself with useful idiots, like TurboTax Tim... and about 30 "czars" so he won't have to take the heat for this mess. Oh yeah and mostly Clinton retreads.

    If Cheney and Rumsfeld were economic advisers, Obama had best listen to them. Until the Democrat-manufactured crash, they presided over the most vibrant, healthy and growing economy in the history of the planet.
     

Share This Page