“What Republican can win 270 electoral votes in 2016?”

[Picaro]

Obama won about 7% more of the popular vote than Romney, who only won about 1% more than McCain, with a larger campaign chest than McCain and more support from the RNC. 7% is hardly a 'landslide mandate', but more a measure of polarization, and will probably hold in that range for at least another couple of campaign cycles. This is an example of how skewed electoral college votes are and how it doesn't come close to reflecting the actual vote.

On the other hand, Obama couldn't win the rank and file vote in his own party's primary against Hillary, and his nomination required the 'Super Delegate' vote to put him over. He doesn't represent the majority of Democrats.

Republicans have a credibility problem; they never actually go through with any of their platforms, and hardly inspire many independents to go out and vote for them; this sinks them more than anything, since the emphasis in modern politics is negative campaigning, which is designed to keep the other guy's base from going to the polls, not draw in and inspire new voters and higher turnouts for their side. This is basic politics 101, and is a result of neither 'party' having much of a record of following through on their claims. This is of course just fine with the financial interests sucking the country dry; they abhor democracies in general and the less participation the better, and it also makes both 'parties' a lot easier to control and relatively cheaper to own.

Reagan didn't 'bankrupt the Soviet Union'; Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon's policies did, in 1973, and they never recovered. The Reagan Myth is as ridiculous as the Kennedy Myth. People need to move on, and at least invent some new myths, if only for entertainment purposes.

Anybody who is seriously concerned about politics and government will just avoid voting for either of these 'parties', regardless of their lean and biases; neither of them have a leadership that gives a crap about this country or its future, they all represent foreign interests.

As for Palin, a Democratic Party that has people Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson sharing the stage in its primaries has no room to be laughing at Republicans.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast

This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

The problem for those republicans who want their party back is they’re on the back of a tiger; the fear of being primaried is just too great.

However crazy or irresponsible a given republican incumbent might be, there’s someone back home even more crazy and more irresponsible ready to take the incumbent’s place.

Which only proves that they are more concerned with their own grip on power than the country's best interests.

Say, whatever happened to the scumbagger promise to serve a term then go home, because they aren't lifelong politicians, blah, blah, blah?

Broken, like every other ‘promise.’

 

[Lumpy 1]

Obama won about 7% more of the popular vote than Romney, who only won about 1% more than McCain, with a larger campaign chest than McCain and more support from the RNC. 7% is hardly a 'landslide mandate', but more a measure of polarization, and will probably hold in that range for at least another couple of campaign cycles. This is an example of how skewed electoral college votes are and how it doesn't come close to reflecting the actual vote.

On the other hand, Obama couldn't win the rank and file vote in his own party's primary against Hillary, and his nomination required the 'Super Delegate' vote to put him over. He doesn't represent the majority of Democrats.

Republicans have a credibility problem; they never actually go through with any of their platforms, and hardly inspire many independents to go out and vote for them; this sinks them more than anything, since the emphasis in modern politics is negative campaigning, which is designed to keep the other guy's base from going to the polls, not draw in and inspire new voters and higher turnouts for their side. This is basic politics 101, and is a result of neither 'party' having much of a record of following through on their claims. This is of course just fine with the financial interests sucking the country dry; they abhor democracies in general and the less participation the better, and it also makes both 'parties' a lot easier to control and relatively cheaper to own.

Reagan didn't 'bankrupt the Soviet Union'; Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon's policies did, in 1973, and they never recovered. The Reagan Myth is as ridiculous as the Kennedy Myth. People need to move on, and at least invent some new myths, if only for entertainment purposes.

Anybody who is seriously concerned about politics and government will just avoid voting for either of these 'parties', regardless of their lean and biases; neither of them have a leadership that gives a crap about this country or its future, they all represent foreign interests.

As for Palin, a Democratic Party that has people Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson sharing the stage in its primaries has no room to be laughing at Republicans.

Great Post, I read it all, most wouldn't...just sayin...

 

[S.J.]

Reagan didn't 'bankrupt the Soviet Union'; Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon's policies did, in 1973, and they never recovered. The Reagan Myth is as ridiculous as the Kennedy Myth. People need to move on, and at least invent some new myths, if only for entertainment purposes.

Your ignorance is astounding. The Soviet Union made the most advances during the Johnson and Nixon administrations with their non-verifiable arms control treaties, which made it possible for the Soviets to gain military parity with us. You either weren't around then or you weren't paying attention.

 

[Old Rocks]

Today? Almost anyone. After three more years of obama world class fuck ups? Any republican would.

The democrat brand is just starting its disintegration. Give it awhile.

Hmmmm.......................... Seems I heard this song and dance before 6Nov12. Bet it plays the same after Nov16.

 

[candycorn]

Obama won about 7% more of the popular vote than Romney, who only won about 1% more than McCain, with a larger campaign chest than McCain and more support from the RNC. 7% is hardly a 'landslide mandate', but more a measure of polarization, and will probably hold in that range for at least another couple of campaign cycles. This is an example of how skewed electoral college votes are and how it doesn't come close to reflecting the actual vote.

That was a good analysis. It reminds me of the arguments I hear about how batting average and RBI's are no longer a measure of how good or poorly a softball player is performing.

As far as it goes, you're right. The other side of the coin is that given the polarization, when you win 9 of the 11 states that were seriously up for grabs, you can call that a convincing victory. Like if Cal State plays Arizona 11 times and 'Zona beats them 9 out of 11 times, that's convincing; even if the margins of the individual games was 1 or 2 runs.

On the other hand, Obama couldn't win the rank and file vote in his own party's primary against Hillary, and his nomination required the 'Super Delegate' vote to put him over. He doesn't represent the majority of Democrats.

Wrong.

He wasn't the first choice of a lot of Democrats.

Republicans have a credibility problem; they never actually go through with any of their platforms, and hardly inspire many independents to go out and vote for them; this sinks them more than anything, since the emphasis in modern politics is negative campaigning, which is designed to keep the other guy's base from going to the polls, not draw in and inspire new voters and higher turnouts for their side. This is basic politics 101, and is a result of neither 'party' having much of a record of following through on their claims. This is of course just fine with the financial interests sucking the country dry; they abhor democracies in general and the less participation the better, and it also makes both 'parties' a lot easier to control and relatively cheaper to own.

Agree except I'd add in likability. Conservatives are simply not very nice people by and large. Trayvon Martin gets shot and you'd think that George Zimmerman had captured James Dillinger from the reaction here.

You're sort of leaving the reservation in the 2nd part.

Reagan didn't 'bankrupt the Soviet Union'; Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon's policies did, in 1973, and they never recovered. The Reagan Myth is as ridiculous as the Kennedy Myth. People need to move on, and at least invent some new myths, if only for entertainment purposes.

Look behind you...there are rails.

Anybody who is seriously concerned about politics and government will just avoid voting for either of these 'parties', regardless of their lean and biases; neither of them have a leadership that gives a crap about this country or its future, they all represent foreign interests.

As for Palin, a Democratic Party that has people Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson sharing the stage in its primaries has no room to be laughing at Republicans.

There are whackjob Democrats as well. They usually aren't hand picked by the nominee to be Veep however. I'm not a Democrat but how could any sober observer view Palin and not laugh at her?

The two-party system is about one thing first and foremost; maintaining the two-party system. There are differences but they pale in comparison to the similarities.

 

[theHawk]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

 

[rightwinger]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

Republicans give their free handouts to the super wealthy. In return, they receive unlimited PAC money to buy elections

Didn't work last time as the voters rebelled against them

 

[LoneLaugher]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

Great! Another one with this clear, concise, incredibly simple point if view!

It seems that you are conceding the demise of the GOP. If what you say is true....then there is no way the GOP can ever win again.

Do you really think there are more smart, educated, hardworking people in this country who voted for Romney over Obama? Really? After thinking about it...do you really believe that?

 

[rightwinger]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

Great! Another one with this clear, concise, incredibly simple point if view!

It seems that you are conceding the demise of the GOP. If what you say is true....then there is no way the GOP can ever win again.

Do you really think there are more smart, educated, hardworking people in this country who voted for Romney over Obama? Really? After thinking about it...do you really believe that?

I thoroughly enjoy how Republicans have embraced the "People vote for Democrats because Democrats give them "free stuff"

They don't mention that what they call "free stuff" are programs meant to help the poor and middle class in this country. Social Security, Low cost education, affordable healthcare, a social safety net.....all programs Republicans oppose

All this so that Republicans can protect the lowest tax rates in history for the wealthiest Americans in history

 

[JoeB131]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

If people are dependent on government, it is because the hard-working crowd got cheated by big corporations too many times.

So you guys really don't have anyone to blame but yourselves.

You put the interests of the wealthy above the interests of those who do the actual work, every time, and you wonder why they turned on you?

Really?

Maybe you can start by not nominating people who say stuff like "I like to fire people". That would probably be a big help.

 

[Katzndogz]

In 2016 it will be a mistake to rely on results from past elections. Wisconsin might not be so blue after the unions are thrown out. Colorado might not be so blue with democrat senators replace by republicans.

At this point in 2013, predictions of the next election in 2016, being like the last election in 2012 is premature. In 2012 there was still hope that democrat policies would be successful. In 2013 the results of those policies are starting to come in and a revolt is brewing across the country. Too many people have lost their jobs. Too many people have become part time employees. Too many people have lost their health care. Too many people are horrified or disappointed in obama's complete mishandling of Syria. Many more are chafing after the scandals that didn't exist in 2012. Too many people are disgusted with being told how wonderful the economy is when they can plainly see it's not.

It's not over yet. We have three more years before democrats can beg forgiveness and try to shift the conversation to gay rights and abortion. How long can democrats ride the gay rights and abortion horse when everything else is falling apart around the nation?

You have it backwards here, Katzndogz, as you do on almost everything.

If the GOP rides "gay rights and abortion" any more it will further alienate a growing national majority. We cannot afford that.

People who are unemployed, out of their homes, live in the shadow of a rising tide of crime don't care about gay rights or abortion. Most people don't care about gay rights. Even when they don't oppose gay rights, it's because they don't care about the subject enough to oppose them. Abortion is turning anyway with more people today considering themselves pro life than any time since Roe was decided. With everything else falling apart, obama intent on punishing the country with WWIII, gay rights and abortion will seem like some very small issues.

 

[rightwinger]

In 2016 it will be a mistake to rely on results from past elections. Wisconsin might not be so blue after the unions are thrown out. Colorado might not be so blue with democrat senators replace by republicans.

At this point in 2013, predictions of the next election in 2016, being like the last election in 2012 is premature. In 2012 there was still hope that democrat policies would be successful. In 2013 the results of those policies are starting to come in and a revolt is brewing across the country. Too many people have lost their jobs. Too many people have become part time employees. Too many people have lost their health care. Too many people are horrified or disappointed in obama's complete mishandling of Syria. Many more are chafing after the scandals that didn't exist in 2012. Too many people are disgusted with being told how wonderful the economy is when they can plainly see it's not.

It's not over yet. We have three more years before democrats can beg forgiveness and try to shift the conversation to gay rights and abortion. How long can democrats ride the gay rights and abortion horse when everything else is falling apart around the nation?

You have it backwards here, Katzndogz, as you do on almost everything.

If the GOP rides "gay rights and abortion" any more it will further alienate a growing national majority. We cannot afford that.

People who are unemployed, out of their homes, live in the shadow of a rising tide of crime don't care about gay rights or abortion. Most people don't care about gay rights. Even when they don't oppose gay rights, it's because they don't care about the subject enough to oppose them. Abortion is turning anyway with more people today considering themselves pro life than any time since Roe was decided. With everything else falling apart, obama intent on punishing the country with WWIII, gay rights and abortion will seem like some very small issues.

Gays are maybe 3% of the population. Not much to worry about. But gays have families, they have friends, they have coworkers who see Republicans as petty and cruel about gays. Young people support gay rights. They look at current GOP policy and rhetoric and ask....Is that the party I want to belong to?

Abortion is similar in that it is a powerful issue among young women. Not just abortion but reproductive rights, reducing or banning insurance for healthcare, closing womens clinics, calling women sluts. Makes young women ask.......Why would I want to belong to the GOP?

 

[Katzndogz]

You have it backwards here, Katzndogz, as you do on almost everything.

If the GOP rides "gay rights and abortion" any more it will further alienate a growing national majority. We cannot afford that.

People who are unemployed, out of their homes, live in the shadow of a rising tide of crime don't care about gay rights or abortion. Most people don't care about gay rights. Even when they don't oppose gay rights, it's because they don't care about the subject enough to oppose them. Abortion is turning anyway with more people today considering themselves pro life than any time since Roe was decided. With everything else falling apart, obama intent on punishing the country with WWIII, gay rights and abortion will seem like some very small issues.

Gays are maybe 3% of the population. Not much to worry about. But gays have families, they have friends, they have coworkers who see Republicans as petty and cruel about gays. Young people support gay rights. They look at current GOP policy and rhetoric and ask....Is that the party I want to belong to?

Abortion is similar in that it is a powerful issue among young women. Not just abortion but reproductive rights, reducing or banning insurance for healthcare, closing womens clinics, calling women sluts. Makes young women ask.......Why would I want to belong to the GOP?

How vital an interest can it be when if the issues are narrowed down to just these issues, they lose?

Put the weight of what democrats have done on one side, and gay rights and abortion on the other and you might see something very different than what you think you would. After all, in every state but two, that has put same sex marriage on the ballot, it has lost. It has lost in bright blue California TWICE! It would lose today. More people care that this is the last season of Breaking Bad than feel an interest in gay rights or abortion.

Democrats are on a mission of making life as miserable as possible for ordinary Americans. If they expect that gay rights and abortion are the two issues to hang their hats on and all else will be forgiven, they may be crushingly disappointed.

Belong to the GOP? Who said that? Washing democrats out of the political process doesn't automatically mean "belonging" to the GOP. It just means if you have a nail in your foot, you are more interested in removing the nail than in choosing what kind of shoes you will wear.

 

[rightwinger]

People who are unemployed, out of their homes, live in the shadow of a rising tide of crime don't care about gay rights or abortion. Most people don't care about gay rights. Even when they don't oppose gay rights, it's because they don't care about the subject enough to oppose them. Abortion is turning anyway with more people today considering themselves pro life than any time since Roe was decided. With everything else falling apart, obama intent on punishing the country with WWIII, gay rights and abortion will seem like some very small issues.

Gays are maybe 3% of the population. Not much to worry about. But gays have families, they have friends, they have coworkers who see Republicans as petty and cruel about gays. Young people support gay rights. They look at current GOP policy and rhetoric and ask....Is that the party I want to belong to?

Abortion is similar in that it is a powerful issue among young women. Not just abortion but reproductive rights, reducing or banning insurance for healthcare, closing womens clinics, calling women sluts. Makes young women ask.......Why would I want to belong to the GOP?

How vital an interest can it be when if the issues are narrowed down to just these issues, they lose?

Put the weight of what democrats have done on one side, and gay rights and abortion on the other and you might see something very different than what you think you would. After all, in every state but two, that has put same sex marriage on the ballot, it has lost. It has lost in bright blue California TWICE! It would lose today. More people care that this is the last season of Breaking Bad than feel an interest in gay rights or abortion.

Democrats are on a mission of making life as miserable as possible for ordinary Americans. If they expect that gay rights and abortion are the two issues to hang their hats on and all else will be forgiven, they may be crushingly disappointed.

Belong to the GOP? Who said that? Washing democrats out of the political process doesn't automatically mean "belonging" to the GOP. It just means if you have a nail in your foot, you are more interested in removing the nail than in choosing what kind of shoes you will wear.

Yes Republicans ....cling to that
You can put gay marriage on ballots and find enough people to vote it down. But that tide is turning and recent ballots have accepted gay marriage

But the very fact that Republicans put Constitutional restrictions on marriage up to a vote reveals them for what they are....Out of touch with current American voting trends

Young people wilol not vote Republican because of their pettyness towards gays, young women will not vote Republican because of their restrictions on womens health and reproductive rights, Hispanics will not vote Republican because of open hostility towards immigrants

Your party is not inclusive, your party is looked at as petty and cruel....you are losing the future voters

 

[jasonnfree]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

This free stuff talk helped sink Romney. Most everybody is working, not sitting home watching t.v. Even some working people are having a hard time making it without some assistance which your side calls "free stuff'. Basic humanity has been banned from today's republican party. Even Mitt Romney had to leave his humane side behind to try to get support from you reptilian republicans. By the way, repubs never never ever whine about the "free stuff' that corporate america gets. Why is that?

 

[Katzndogz]

Gays are maybe 3% of the population. Not much to worry about. But gays have families, they have friends, they have coworkers who see Republicans as petty and cruel about gays. Young people support gay rights. They look at current GOP policy and rhetoric and ask....Is that the party I want to belong to?

Abortion is similar in that it is a powerful issue among young women. Not just abortion but reproductive rights, reducing or banning insurance for healthcare, closing womens clinics, calling women sluts. Makes young women ask.......Why would I want to belong to the GOP?

How vital an interest can it be when if the issues are narrowed down to just these issues, they lose?

Put the weight of what democrats have done on one side, and gay rights and abortion on the other and you might see something very different than what you think you would. After all, in every state but two, that has put same sex marriage on the ballot, it has lost. It has lost in bright blue California TWICE! It would lose today. More people care that this is the last season of Breaking Bad than feel an interest in gay rights or abortion.

Democrats are on a mission of making life as miserable as possible for ordinary Americans. If they expect that gay rights and abortion are the two issues to hang their hats on and all else will be forgiven, they may be crushingly disappointed.

Belong to the GOP? Who said that? Washing democrats out of the political process doesn't automatically mean "belonging" to the GOP. It just means if you have a nail in your foot, you are more interested in removing the nail than in choosing what kind of shoes you will wear.

Yes Republicans ....cling to that
You can put gay marriage on ballots and find enough people to vote it down. But that tide is turning and recent ballots have accepted gay marriage

But the very fact that Republicans put Constitutional restrictions on marriage up to a vote reveals them for what they are....Out of touch with current American voting trends

Young people wilol not vote Republican because of their pettyness towards gays, young women will not vote Republican because of their restrictions on womens health and reproductive rights, Hispanics will not vote Republican because of open hostility towards immigrants

Your party is not inclusive, your party is looked at as petty and cruel....you are losing the future voters

Ohhhh so IMPOSING gay mafia demands on an unwilling public is a sure winner! When these minor and very unimportant issues are weighed against a depressed economy, democrat support for international terrorism and a tsunami of crime, where do you think the peripheral issues will end up. They are petty issues, when there isn't anything else to worry about, they might gain an importance they don't deserve. When there are other issues to worry about, guess where they end up?

That's why which republican will be the next president is pretty much an unknown. If you are right, it will be more of a libertarian like Rand Paul.

 

[Toro]

Zero.

The amount of credibility of any conservative predicting the outcome of the 2016 election who also predicted that Romney would stomp Obama.

 

[Synthaholic]

I doubt any Republican can win 2016. Way too many people dependant on the government now. The Free Handout crowd is pretty much going to outnumber the smart, educated, hard-working crowd from now on.

America has become 'Obamanation'.

Great! Another one with this clear, concise, incredibly simple point if view!

It seems that you are conceding the demise of the GOP. If what you say is true....then there is no way the GOP can ever win again.

Do you really think there are more smart, educated, hardworking people in this country who voted for Romney over Obama? Really? After thinking about it...do you really believe that?

I thoroughly enjoy how Republicans have embraced the "People vote for Democrats because Democrats give them "free stuff"

They don't mention that what they call "free stuff" are programs meant to help the poor and middle class in this country. Social Security, Low cost education, affordable healthcare, a social safety net.....all programs Republicans oppose

All this so that Republicans can protect the lowest tax rates in history for the wealthiest Americans in history

In 1965, Ronald Reagan said that Medicare would turn the country Communist.

What a dope!

 

[rightwinger]

How vital an interest can it be when if the issues are narrowed down to just these issues, they lose?

Put the weight of what democrats have done on one side, and gay rights and abortion on the other and you might see something very different than what you think you would. After all, in every state but two, that has put same sex marriage on the ballot, it has lost. It has lost in bright blue California TWICE! It would lose today. More people care that this is the last season of Breaking Bad than feel an interest in gay rights or abortion.

Democrats are on a mission of making life as miserable as possible for ordinary Americans. If they expect that gay rights and abortion are the two issues to hang their hats on and all else will be forgiven, they may be crushingly disappointed.

Belong to the GOP? Who said that? Washing democrats out of the political process doesn't automatically mean "belonging" to the GOP. It just means if you have a nail in your foot, you are more interested in removing the nail than in choosing what kind of shoes you will wear.

Yes Republicans ....cling to that
You can put gay marriage on ballots and find enough people to vote it down. But that tide is turning and recent ballots have accepted gay marriage

But the very fact that Republicans put Constitutional restrictions on marriage up to a vote reveals them for what they are....Out of touch with current American voting trends

Young people wilol not vote Republican because of their pettyness towards gays, young women will not vote Republican because of their restrictions on womens health and reproductive rights, Hispanics will not vote Republican because of open hostility towards immigrants

Your party is not inclusive, your party is looked at as petty and cruel....you are losing the future voters

Ohhhh so IMPOSING gay mafia demands on an unwilling public is a sure winner! When these minor and very unimportant issues are weighed against a depressed economy, democrat support for international terrorism and a tsunami of crime, where do you think the peripheral issues will end up. They are petty issues, when there isn't anything else to worry about, they might gain an importance they don't deserve. When there are other issues to worry about, guess where they end up?

That's why which republican will be the next president is pretty much an unknown. If you are right, it will be more of a libertarian like Rand Paul.

Rand Paul is one of the reasons the Republicans can't win

If you want to only look at important issues like the depressed economy, international terrorism and a tsunami of crime....What have Republicans done in the last five years?