“What Republican can win 270 electoral votes in 2016?”

[L.K.Eder]

Interestingly, for the rightwing jabbering, not one of them could name a Republican that has any chance of winning.

was Ham Sandwich mentioned already?

 

[rightwinger]

Interestingly, for the rightwing jabbering, not one of them could name a Republican that has any chance of winning.

was Ham Sandwich mentioned already?

Putin seems to be their leading contender

 

[BDBoop]

You didn't read the article, did you.



So tell me: What is the 270 path that you've found, keeping in mind that we're already 91% of the way there as Democrats.

No question, you'll need to break the firewall in the upper midwest to win if you are in the GOP. PA, WI, MI all have GOP governors so its possible. The real difficulty for the GOP is going to be running a candidate in the General that has to sound crazy enough to win the GOP ghettos in the south during the primary while still appealing to the much less insane midwest conservatives. Not an easy thing to do.

The most likely states would probably be MN and WI. However, if you look at his list above, and you see the swing states Obama won - CO FL IA OH NM NV VA - the Republicans have to win all of them while the Democrats would only need to win FL.

If you look at some of the other blue states Republicans have thought they could win, the last time these states went red were

MI - 1988
MN - 1972
PA - 1988
WI - 1984

So there'd have to be a pretty seismic shift for those states to be put into play. Running Ted Cruz against Hillary Clinton certainly won't do it.

MN won't be flipping any time soon. Wisconsin already done flipped right the fuck out. I hope what they're going through will help them make better decisions next election.

 

[BDBoop]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast

Conservative Republicans uphold their conservative principles as a shiny badge of honor never to be tarnished. I, too, am a conservative Republican. However, I think like Ronald Reagan, who when trying to get legislation passed in 1983 said the following:

“I have always figured that a half a loaf is better than none, and I know that in the democratic process you’re not going to always get everything you want.”

Sadly, I also agree with former senator and 1996 GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole, who appeared this past May on Fox News Sunday to discuss the growing conservative tilt among Republican primary and base voters when he stated that “Reagan wouldn't have made it” in today’s Republican Party.

That might actually be true, for at my conservative event, as I listened to speeches from a host of elected leaders, only one mentioned the “C word”: compromise. Instead of “compromise,” all I heard was “we must battle and fight to uphold the principles of conservatism.”

Now, I also believe in fighting for conservative principles, but realizing that conservatives are an ever shrinking minority within the electorate, it is imperative that Republicans nominate a presidential candidate (and other leaders) who can attract moderate voters by stating that he or she, like Reagan, are willing to accept a “half loaf instead of a whole” in order to solve the difficult issues facing our nation.

Otherwise, the GOP will remain locked out of the White House and leave our nation stuck in neutral with a gridlocked government. There is danger ahead for conservatives when core conservative principles are used as roadblocks to any progress.

This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

Can he win?

Daniel Craig will play him in the movie, I just know it!

 

[Toro]

Florida is looking decidedly blue. The state that put Bush in the White House looks like will not be voting Republican for a while. The Hispanic vote will be critical and Republicans are doing what they can to piss them off

That assumption is a mistake. FL is a purple state. FL was a very winnable state in 12 for the GOP. The state Democrats are in a shambles with Republicans dominating all statewide political institutions.

Florida was purple and is on the verge of moving into the blue column in Presidential Elections

Republicans only hope is to run Bush or Rubio

That's wishful thinking. The in-the-know Democrats I know here don't think that. Florida is a Republican state by virtually all metrics. 19 of Florida's 25 Congresspersons are Republican. One Senator is a Republican. The Florida House and Senate are Republican with veto-proof majorities. All the cabinet members are Republicans. The governor is Republican. And his most serious challenger in 2014 is an ex-Republican.

Had the Presidential election been held in 2010, the Republicans would have won here by at least 10 points, probably more. They may have lost otherwise, but the reason why Obama's margin of victory in Florida was as big as it was was because the Republicans were beaten badly on the ground.

 

[candycorn]

You didn't read the article, did you.



So tell me: What is the 270 path that you've found, keeping in mind that we're already 91% of the way there as Democrats.

No question, you'll need to break the firewall in the upper midwest to win if you are in the GOP. PA, WI, MI all have GOP governors so its possible. The real difficulty for the GOP is going to be running a candidate in the General that has to sound crazy enough to win the GOP ghettos in the south during the primary while still appealing to the much less insane midwest conservatives. Not an easy thing to do.

Which is why a sane, serious GOP presidential candidate needs to have the courage to remain sensible and pragmatic in the Southern primaries, although he’ll lose most of those primaries, it will allow him to be perceived as sane and pragmatic during the General Election, and attract the democratic and independent votes he’ll need to win.

Ahh, the Jon Huntsmann approach. You'll need to have a lot of charisma so the true believers don't lose faith during the dark days. Half of the primaries at the outset are in the south, (SC, FL). That is a lot of news cycles where the spotlight will be on whomever is leading/winning in those contests.

Answer for that is Chris Christie.

The problem he has is that he won't win in Iowa..no way no how. New Hampshire will be a dog fight and he probably should start campaigning there tomorrow.

So now you're looking at Jeb Bush or Rubio. Not sure about Rubio who seems to be fading. Bush is formidable if he wants it.

Against the backdrop of all this are the Democrats. Think of 1992; you had the senior statesmen Bush 41 against the young dynamic Clinton who not only looked competent but...HE LOOKED READY. You could well have that same dynamic take place in 2016 except the Democrats seem ready to run Biden who will be 73 or Hillary Clinton who will be 68 or so.

Does "LOOK READY" apply to any of the GOP current leaders outside of Bush and Christie? Cruz? Please. Paul? Puhleeze. Rubio? Seems to be regressing. Santorum? Too crazy but can rehab. Scott Walker? Hmmm? Nikki Haley? Hmmm. Rob Portman? Probably too vanilla.

I think the Dems should look outside of Biden/Clinton. The question is who. I don't know the answer but there are some governors who look like they are interested. But it's setting up well for a GOP victory in 2016 if they can get out of their own way. History shows they have trouble doing that.

 

[candycorn]

No question, you'll need to break the firewall in the upper midwest to win if you are in the GOP. PA, WI, MI all have GOP governors so its possible. The real difficulty for the GOP is going to be running a candidate in the General that has to sound crazy enough to win the GOP ghettos in the south during the primary while still appealing to the much less insane midwest conservatives. Not an easy thing to do.

Which is why a sane, serious GOP presidential candidate needs to have the courage to remain sensible and pragmatic in the Southern primaries, although he’ll lose most of those primaries, it will allow him to be perceived as sane and pragmatic during the General Election, and attract the democratic and independent votes he’ll need to win.

It turns out that successful Gerrymandering has its costs down the road, eh?

Some districts got Gerrymandered so red that only an extremist has a chance of winning.

That is a fantastic point. If there is a government shutdown next month, the GOP will get blamed and these blood red districts are sowing the seeds of that shutdown.

 

[candycorn]

No question, you'll need to break the firewall in the upper midwest to win if you are in the GOP. PA, WI, MI all have GOP governors so its possible. The real difficulty for the GOP is going to be running a candidate in the General that has to sound crazy enough to win the GOP ghettos in the south during the primary while still appealing to the much less insane midwest conservatives. Not an easy thing to do.

The most likely states would probably be MN and WI. However, if you look at his list above, and you see the swing states Obama won - CO FL IA OH NM NV VA - the Republicans have to win all of them while the Democrats would only need to win FL.

If you look at some of the other blue states Republicans have thought they could win, the last time these states went red were

MI - 1988
MN - 1972
PA - 1988
WI - 1984

So there'd have to be a pretty seismic shift for those states to be put into play. Running Ted Cruz against Hillary Clinton certainly won't do it.

Florida is looking decidedly blue. The state that put Bush in the White House looks like will not be voting Republican for a while. The Hispanic vote will be critical and Republicans are doing what they can to piss them off

If Jeb or Rubio get the nom...I think the GOP has a good chance of taking Florida. Very good in fact.

 

[candycorn]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast

Conservative Republicans uphold their conservative principles as a shiny badge of honor never to be tarnished. I, too, am a conservative Republican. However, I think like Ronald Reagan, who when trying to get legislation passed in 1983 said the following:

“I have always figured that a half a loaf is better than none, and I know that in the democratic process you’re not going to always get everything you want.”

Sadly, I also agree with former senator and 1996 GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole, who appeared this past May on Fox News Sunday to discuss the growing conservative tilt among Republican primary and base voters when he stated that “Reagan wouldn't have made it” in today’s Republican Party.

That might actually be true, for at my conservative event, as I listened to speeches from a host of elected leaders, only one mentioned the “C word”: compromise. Instead of “compromise,” all I heard was “we must battle and fight to uphold the principles of conservatism.”

Now, I also believe in fighting for conservative principles, but realizing that conservatives are an ever shrinking minority within the electorate, it is imperative that Republicans nominate a presidential candidate (and other leaders) who can attract moderate voters by stating that he or she, like Reagan, are willing to accept a “half loaf instead of a whole” in order to solve the difficult issues facing our nation.

Otherwise, the GOP will remain locked out of the White House and leave our nation stuck in neutral with a gridlocked government. There is danger ahead for conservatives when core conservative principles are used as roadblocks to any progress.

This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

Can he win?

Nice.

 

[candycorn]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast



This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

Can he win?

Daniel Craig will play him in the movie, I just know it!

I thought that was Daniel Craig...it isn't? Really?

 

[S.J.]

Yes, reality has a liberal bias.

No, liberals just like to rewrite history.

Guy, I lived through that time period. Frankly, most of the academic world saw that the USSR had the same problem the British Empire had- that the Russians were tired of having an empire and the ruled people were tired of being ruled.

It was not because Reagan gave a pretty speech in Berlin.

Guy, I lived through that time period too. Reagan engaged them in the arms race and bankrupted them. The Soviet Union didn't fall, it was pushed. Your hatred for Reagan won't let you admit that, which is why arguing with you is pointless, and the fact that voted for both Reagan AND Obama proves you don't have any credibility or even a basic understanding of politics or governing.

 

[AVG-JOE]

Interestingly, for the rightwing jabbering, not one of them could name a Republican that has any chance of winning.

was Ham Sandwich mentioned already?

Putin seems to be their leading contender

Does he have a long-form birth certificate issued by Alaska? Hawaii has already done enough.

 

[AVG-JOE]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast



This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

Can he win?

Daniel Craig will play him in the movie, I just know it!

With Steve Urkle shooting hoops as Obama

 

[Toro]

Which is why a sane, serious GOP presidential candidate needs to have the courage to remain sensible and pragmatic in the Southern primaries, although he’ll lose most of those primaries, it will allow him to be perceived as sane and pragmatic during the General Election, and attract the democratic and independent votes he’ll need to win.

It turns out that successful Gerrymandering has its costs down the road, eh?

Some districts got Gerrymandered so red that only an extremist has a chance of winning.

That is a fantastic point. If there is a government shutdown next month, the GOP will get blamed and these blood red districts are sowing the seeds of that shutdown.

That's absolutely true. In all those red districts configured with a 55-45 advantage, a Democrat wave could exacerbate a victory that would appear more crushing than it really would be. That's the danger.

 

[JakeStarkey]

In 2016 it will be a mistake to rely on results from past elections. Wisconsin might not be so blue after the unions are thrown out. Colorado might not be so blue with democrat senators replace by republicans.

At this point in 2013, predictions of the next election in 2016, being like the last election in 2012 is premature. In 2012 there was still hope that democrat policies would be successful. In 2013 the results of those policies are starting to come in and a revolt is brewing across the country. Too many people have lost their jobs. Too many people have become part time employees. Too many people have lost their health care. Too many people are horrified or disappointed in obama's complete mishandling of Syria. Many more are chafing after the scandals that didn't exist in 2012. Too many people are disgusted with being told how wonderful the economy is when they can plainly see it's not.

It's not over yet. We have three more years before democrats can beg forgiveness and try to shift the conversation to gay rights and abortion. How long can democrats ride the gay rights and abortion horse when everything else is falling apart around the nation?

You have it backwards here, Katzndogz, as you do on almost everything.

If the GOP rides "gay rights and abortion" any more it will further alienate a growing national majority. We cannot afford that.

 

[Crackerjaxon]

Moderates are a myth. No one votes for them.

 

[rightwinger]

was Ham Sandwich mentioned already?

Putin seems to be their leading contender

Does he have a long-form birth certificate issued by Alaska? Hawaii has already done enough.

Putin can see Alaska from his house

 

[rightwinger]

Moderates are a myth. No one votes for them.

I do

 

[Two Thumbs]

Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast

Conservative Republicans uphold their conservative principles as a shiny badge of honor never to be tarnished. I, too, am a conservative Republican. However, I think like Ronald Reagan, who when trying to get legislation passed in 1983 said the following:

“I have always figured that a half a loaf is better than none, and I know that in the democratic process you’re not going to always get everything you want.”

Sadly, I also agree with former senator and 1996 GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole, who appeared this past May on Fox News Sunday to discuss the growing conservative tilt among Republican primary and base voters when he stated that “Reagan wouldn't have made it” in today’s Republican Party.

That might actually be true, for at my conservative event, as I listened to speeches from a host of elected leaders, only one mentioned the “C word”: compromise. Instead of “compromise,” all I heard was “we must battle and fight to uphold the principles of conservatism.”

Now, I also believe in fighting for conservative principles, but realizing that conservatives are an ever shrinking minority within the electorate, it is imperative that Republicans nominate a presidential candidate (and other leaders) who can attract moderate voters by stating that he or she, like Reagan, are willing to accept a “half loaf instead of a whole” in order to solve the difficult issues facing our nation.

Otherwise, the GOP will remain locked out of the White House and leave our nation stuck in neutral with a gridlocked government. There is danger ahead for conservatives when core conservative principles are used as roadblocks to any progress.

This is an excellent article. There are some hard home-truths that need to be faced and dealt with before Republicans can even think about taking back the White House. I am hoping that since there is a veritable shit-ton of Republicans who want their party back, they will find a way to make it happen. Because this "I'm more conservative!" "No, I'M more conservative!" game is doing nothing to win moderates, and you need the moderates. You cannot win without them.

No republican will ever hold the WH again.

In 2008 a complete fool was elected. A man with no leadership skills or experience. And he did not do a damn thing that truly needed to be done.
In 2012 the dnc amazed me to no end. Their ability to lie, make utterly useless subjects head lines news, and completly bury just how poorly obama had done, set the bar so high, that no moral person or people could ever stoop as low as they did.

No person, of any moral value will ever win the WH

 

[alan1]

What Republican can win 270 electoral votes in 2016?

Well, we damn sure know that liberal leaning republicans like John McCain and Mitt Romney couldn't pull 270 electoral votes. Being "liberal light" doesn't earn votes from conservatives.