CDZ We do love to extrapolate!

[Mac1958]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

 

[Mac1958]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

 

[Ringel05]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

That's what ya get for dealing with the simplistic.......

 

[Mac1958]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

Yes, that's what the word means, but that's not my point.

Do you see any kind of gray area? Like maybe being careful not to overdo it? Maybe being cautious and open-minded so that our predictions are not too simplistic? Maybe not hanging all of our hopes and expectations based on simple extrapolation?

Anything like that?
.

 

[william the wie]

Politicians do that all of the time. Schumer's opposition to Trump appointments is based on normal midterm results. What he ignores includes the following:

Contributions to the rental rioters have reduced campaign contributions and the tax deductibility of campaign contributions could be lost too.

SCOTUS decisions has hit the PSU GOTV D ground game so hard that Scott has money enough to run ground games across the state but Nelson can't here in FL. Also the gerrymandering rules have changed to favor the Rs.

There are three times as many D senate seats to defend as R seats.

Schumer needs to cut a deal with Trump while he still haves the leverage but he is extrapolating things that are impossible.

 

[Mac1958]

Politicians do that all of the time. Schumer's opposition to Trump appointments is based on normal midterm results. What he ignores includes the following:

Contributions to the rental rioters have reduced campaign contributions and the tax deductibility of campaign contributions could be lost too.

SCOTUS decisions has hit the PSU GOTV D ground game so hard that Scott has money enough to run ground games across the state but Nelson can't here in FL. Also the gerrymandering rules have changed to favor the Rs.

There are three times as many D senate seats to defend as R seats.

Schumer needs to cut a deal with Trump while he still haves the leverage but he is extrapolating things that are impossible.

Yeah. My guess is that they're not worried about accuracy or hyperbole or intellectual honesty.

Then, if stuff doesn't turn out their way, they'll just blame the other guys.

After all, they're politicians.
.

 

[candycorn]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

What else were you supposed to deduce from the OP?

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

Yes, that's what the word means, but that's not my point.

Do you see any kind of gray area? Like maybe being careful not to overdo it? Maybe being cautious and open-minded so that our predictions are not too simplistic? Maybe not hanging all of our hopes and expectations based on simple extrapolation?

Anything like that?
.

Do you see any kind of gray area? Like maybe being careful not to overdo it?

Extrapolate, but don't be simplistic about it.

 

[Mac1958]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

What else were you supposed to deduce from the OP?

I made the mistake of assuming that most people realize that life is complicated and nuanced, and not binary.

So to you and to him, my apologies.
.

 

[Mac1958]

Good grief. Even something like this gets people going.

 

[william the wie]

If Schumer thinks of Nancy and Maxine as the other guys he will be on target. Those two are the best campaigners for the Rs that are available.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Humans try to predict the future. It's what we do.

Except for morons.

 

[william the wie]

Good grief. Even something like this gets people going.

This cycle "Roses are red and violets are blue" is considered partisan propaganda.

 

[candycorn]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Definition of extrapolate

a : to predict by projecting past experience or known data

• extrapolate public sentiment on one issue from known public reaction on others

Definition of EXTRAPOLATE

Yeah, weird, eh?

What else were you supposed to deduce from the OP?

I made the mistake of assuming that most people realize that life is complicated and nuanced, and not binary.

So to you and to him, my apologies.
.

No problem…but isn’t it strange how whenever you start a thread, you end up in a 15 round argument with pretty much everyone who weighs in? Its been going on since you came here. Everyone else is wrong and of course, you’re correct…right?

Debate is good. Divisions are good. There are legitimate disagreements between parties. A healthy amount of extrapolation is not only necessary, it’s expected and a skilled negotiator can use it by thinking 2-3 moves ahead of their opponent. The biggest obstacle one faces when dealing with a winger on either side is that winger’s superstition; example; any gun control law means a total ban is in the offing or any change to SS means that old people will suffer and die. Neither is automatically true but it closes off the mind to reasoned debate and compromise.

And by the way…

That you arbitrarily assign stances to entire groups of people only amplified that you’re as guilty as anyone when it comes to extrapolation.

 

[candycorn]

he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Humans try to predict the future. It's what we do.

Except for morons.

Dude..you’re on fire. More please.

 

[Mac1958]

he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Humans try to predict the future. It's what we do.

Except for morons.

It's not that you should never...

Aw, never mind.
.

 

[Mac1958]

I guess I should laugh, but this isn't so funny.

 

[LoneLaugher]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

You mean like when people defend the vast majority of Muslims against the charge that they are all America hating, violent jihadis and some asshat extrapolates that to mean that they are defenders of terrorism and haters of Christians?