CDZ We do love to extrapolate!

[ricechickie]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

 

[Mac1958]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

I think that many of the divisions that are pulling us apart are based on very shallow extrapolation. Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

Now, to be fair, many of our political behaviors are now quite predictable, because so many of us are so bound to an ideology that gives us intellectual marching orders. So these behavioral patterns are essentially feeding on themselves.

Anyway, in the time since I first heard this notion about "extrapolation", I've applied it to more and more things in regular life and work. It does change your thinking and force you to dig a little deeper & more cautiously when making assumptions.
.

 

[sartre play]

Is that not what's missing balance of power?

 

[ricechickie]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

I think that many of the divisions that are pulling us apart are based on very shallow extrapolation. Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

Now, to be fair, many of our political behaviors are now quite predictable, because so many of us are so bound to an ideology that gives us intellectual marching orders. So these behavioral patterns are essentially feeding on themselves.

Anyway, in the time since I first heard this notion about "extrapolation", I've applied it to more and more things in regular life and work. It does change your thinking and force you to dig a little deeper & more cautiously when making assumptions.
.

I’m bothered by your sentence about being “bound to ideologies” that give us “marching orders.” I see the truth in it; I also think it’s a self-perpetuating cycle. We are often pigeonholed into an ideology based on that very extrapolation you’re talking about.

You see it here every day. Based on one sentence about one topic, or even one agree of somebody else’s post, others will assume your opinion about every other aspect of politics. In being pigeonholed, we are pushed, constantly, to choose a side.

 

[Mac1958]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

I think that many of the divisions that are pulling us apart are based on very shallow extrapolation. Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

Now, to be fair, many of our political behaviors are now quite predictable, because so many of us are so bound to an ideology that gives us intellectual marching orders. So these behavioral patterns are essentially feeding on themselves.

Anyway, in the time since I first heard this notion about "extrapolation", I've applied it to more and more things in regular life and work. It does change your thinking and force you to dig a little deeper & more cautiously when making assumptions.
.

I’m bothered by your sentence about being “bound to ideologies” that give us “marching orders.” I see the truth in it; I also think it’s a self-perpetuating cycle. We are often pigeonholed into an ideology based on that very extrapolation you’re talking about.

You see it here every day. Based on one sentence about one topic, or even one agree of somebody else’s post, others will assume your opinion about every other aspect of politics. In being pigeonholed, we are pushed, constantly, to choose a side.

I guess it's projection. Particularly on a political message board, you'll have a high percentage of people who have allowed themselves to become tied to an ideology, a "side". So they just assume that the other guy is as well. Those of us who, at least so far, have managed to avoid that affliction are then inaccurately categorized.

What concerns me most, though, is that I'm seeing more and more of this across our society and culture. It's not just the political junkies at this point.

I'm serious when I say I don't think a republic can survive for long with this shallow tribalism.
.

 

[ricechickie]

Listen, I get it. I do lean toward one side, quite hard, but I appreciate intellectual honesty of someone who disagrees with me more than someone who parrots “my side’s” points word for word.

It’s interesting that when I ask questions of someone I’m arguing with, those who aren’t intellectually honest decide that I’m just trying to trap them or something.

I thought questioning was how we learned.

 

[Mac1958]

I thought questioning was how we learned.

That assumes that one wants to learn.
.

 

[evenflow1969]

So don't try to make any predictions about future events......ever.

So that's what you got out of that?

Okie doke!
.

Because this then that is the cause and effect fallacy and the first they teach in logic class. This is the most common logic flaw. We have developed an entire feild of mathmatics to determine if two events are related at all and an estimmate of the probability of their relationship. We call this regression analysis and it is graduate level math. A great deal of work goes into figuring out if two events are even related, the proportional relationship is not even discovered with this process. Regresion analysis just tells the mathmatician the events are related, proportions have to be figured out after word. Certainly there are people making predicitons about things they are not experts about. Extropolate but do not rely on that data as much as interpolation. Idiots should not put much faith in their extropoation, most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

 

[Mac1958]

....most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

Precisely, preparing and using those secondary options as an "out" in case the extrapolation is incorrect and/or conditions change.

An extrapolation is generally used to make decisions and execute plans. So a smart, comprehensive extrapolation will include smart, comprehensive hedges and alternate options.

There are people on this thread who don't see that.
.

 

[evenflow1969]

....most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

Precisely, preparing and using those secondary options as an "out" in case the extrapolation is incorrect and/or conditions change.

An extrapolation is generally used to make decisions and execute plans. So a smart, comprehensive extrapolation will include smart, comprehensive hedges and alternate options.

There are people on this thread who don't see that.
.

You are getting it!

 

[Mac1958]

....most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

Precisely, preparing and using those secondary options as an "out" in case the extrapolation is incorrect and/or conditions change.

An extrapolation is generally used to make decisions and execute plans. So a smart, comprehensive extrapolation will include smart, comprehensive hedges and alternate options.

There are people on this thread who don't see that.
.

You are getting it!

Hey, I started the thread. I already had it.
.

 

[ricechickie]

....most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

Precisely, preparing and using those secondary options as an "out" in case the extrapolation is incorrect and/or conditions change.

An extrapolation is generally used to make decisions and execute plans. So a smart, comprehensive extrapolation will include smart, comprehensive hedges and alternate options.

There are people on this thread who don't see that.
.

That’s called “waffling” in politics.

It’s perceived as weakness.

Unfortunately.

 

[william the wie]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

 

[Mac1958]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

 

[ricechickie]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

 

[Mac1958]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

Well, "infighting" is a choice. This country needs these parties to get their act together. Not just one of them (although yeah, I'd sure like to see the Democrats go first), but both. To me, what's needed is that each party has to raise their standards for behavior and rhetoric.

But there's simply no motivation to. Trump won by playing to his base, and any success he has will be by playing to his base. The Dems are doing the same thing. That's not only leaving a gaping and growing hole in the middle, it also means that fewer and fewer people are truly being served.

I wish I had some kind of answer.
.

 

[ricechickie]

The current phase of tribalism is ending because Ds went on autopilot years ago. The foundation of D power includes unlimited SALT deductions and PSUs providing campaigners, both of which are now gone. The MSM and control of the courts are other parts of the D foundation and they are crumbling. Given the reaction of the MSM to last night's nomination a menu of bad outcomes is all the Ds have now.

I think there are plenty of forces on the Right contributing to tribalism.

Since it's coming from both ends like water from a fire hose, which side is "worse" is irrelevant. Both sides should clean their own house first.
.

If “cleaning one’s own house” involves party infighting, that’s dangerous.

I’ll admit it, I’m partisan enough to want Democrats to stand united against the Trump administration. Do I want them to do it with integrity? Absolutely. Would I impede my own party if they were obstructing the current administration in a less-than-honest way? It would have to be pretty egregious malfeasance. Because what I see is some pretty awful malfeasance in this administration, and I want it to end.

Commence ripping me to shreds for having a preference.

Well, "infighting" is a choice. This country needs these parties to get their act together. Not just one of them (although yeah, I'd sure like to see the Democrats go first), but both. To me, what's needed is that each party has to raise their standards for behavior and rhetoric.

But there's simply no motivation to. Trump won by playing to his base, and any success he has will be by playing to his base. The Dems are doing the same thing. That's not only leaving a gaping and growing hole in the middle, it also means that fewer and fewer people are truly being served.

I wish I had some kind of answer.
.

At the risk of simplistic extrapolation, infighting is a predictable consequence of politicians cleaning their own house. There are going to be those who resist.

I wish I had a good answer. Democracy is messy, huh?

 

[G.T.]

I think most people realize this at 10 or 12...not retirement age.

 

[evenflow1969]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.

I thought about 9/11 when I wrote that. It didn’t TRULY affect enough Americans to make us cohesive as a country. We all came together superficially, but you’re right, not for long.

I think that many of the divisions that are pulling us apart are based on very shallow extrapolation. Nowhere do we make more shallow long-term assumptions than politics, and everything we do and say is based on those assumptions.

Now, to be fair, many of our political behaviors are now quite predictable, because so many of us are so bound to an ideology that gives us intellectual marching orders. So these behavioral patterns are essentially feeding on themselves.

Anyway, in the time since I first heard this notion about "extrapolation", I've applied it to more and more things in regular life and work. It does change your thinking and force you to dig a little deeper & more cautiously when making assumptions.
.

I say people are not extropolating. They are picking the best out come they can think of and ignoring realities. They only pay attention to the data plots well above the average distrobution line if it supports their ideology and ingnore all below it.

 

[evenflow1969]

....most people should make plan b,c,d,and f.

Precisely, preparing and using those secondary options as an "out" in case the extrapolation is incorrect and/or conditions change.

An extrapolation is generally used to make decisions and execute plans. So a smart, comprehensive extrapolation will include smart, comprehensive hedges and alternate options.

There are people on this thread who don't see that.
.

Ya, I some times think the best president would have been a former booky. With a good booky the house gets 15 to 20% no matter the bet! Imagine if our governemnt ran with that type of efficiency!