CDZ We do love to extrapolate!

[Mac1958]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

You mean like when people defend the vast majority of Muslims against the charge that they are all America hating, violent jihadis and some asshat extrapolates that to mean that they are defenders of terrorism and haters of Christians?

Yes, that would be an example.

But really, this thread is more about extrapolating over time.

But thanks for trying to make this thread absolutely as partisan as possible.
.

 

[william the wie]

I guess I should laugh, but this isn't so funny.

The Ds blowing what should be a gimme twice in a row is funny except to the Ds. If Hillary had sobered up enough to campaign in WI and MI she would most likely be president. If Nancy and Maxine had kept their mouths shut the mid-terms would be looking a lot better for the Ds despite pocket book issues.

 

[william the wie]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

You mean like when people defend the vast majority of Muslims against the charge that they are all America hating, violent jihadis and some asshat extrapolates that to mean that they are defenders of terrorism and haters of Christians?

Yes, that would be an example.

But really, this thread is more about extrapolating over time.

But thanks for trying to make this thread absolutely as partisan as possible.
.

But admit it LL does go with his strong suit.

 

[oldsoul]

Funny. The OP is decidedly non-partisan, yet it took less than a page of posts to turn this into a partisan fight. "The D's this, and the R's that." Get a grip people. This was, in my opinion, designed to make you THINK, yet all we get is knee-jerk partisan hackery. Not one poet so far has actually addressed the subject matter. Unless, of course, it was in an attempt to turn this into a political shooting gallery, where there are no winners, just losers. There are no "targets", just the opposition. For God's sake, pull your heads out of your... Shoot, nevermind, if you don't get it by now, I could post anything and it wouldn't even matter.
Let's try that and see what happens... Ghandi was a God. Anyone want to tell me I'm wrong? I am, he was a MAN, but anyone still reading with a clear head realises that, so It doesn't matter...

 

[Mac1958]

By the way, these are the guys, for those of you who are into technical analysis to any degree. Probably a little geeky for some, but very sharp and interesting.

CiovaccoCapital

 

[Mac1958]

Funny. The OP is decidedly non-partisan, yet it took less than a page of posts to turn this into a partisan fight. "The D's this, and the R's that." Get a grip people. This was, in my opinion, designed to make you THINK, yet all we get is knee-jerk partisan hackery. Not one poet so far has actually addressed the subject matter. Unless, of course, it was in an attempt to turn this into a political shooting gallery, where there are no winners, just losers. There are no "targets", just the opposition. For God's sake, pull your heads out of your... Shoot, nevermind, if you don't get it by now, I could post anything and it wouldn't even matter.
Let's try that and see what happens... Ghandi was a God. Anyone want to tell me I'm wrong? I am, he was a MAN, but anyone still reading with a clear head realises that, so It doesn't matter...

Yup. And of course, the point is about far more than politics.
.

 

[ricechickie]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

I am struggling with that very issue during this administration. Will 45 really cause long-lasting effect (for good or ill) or are his policies really not that significant for the majority of people?

I hope there are no long-term damages, but then you read those analyses that forecast we are having the second coming of Nazi Germany.

I’m not being hyperbolic or facetious. I truly wrestle with this.

My best defense are eyes open, but not in panic.

 

[oldsoul]

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?

It would be more like what I envision a debate club meeting would be like. Everyone fights like cats and dogs (with words and ideas), yet attacks no one. Then everyone sits down and has a beer (or wine) together and have a good laugh about who screwed up, and who made you really THINK. Man, that would be wonderful, unfortunately, it is against human nature to do that. Even the most "enlightened" have had trouble with that. From today's "leaders" to the Founding Fathers, to Aristotle, to Cane and Able. The list is endless, the exceptions... few and far between. I wish this were not true, but it is. What my greatest hope is, is that someday we (as humans) can get to a point where the majority of people at least try to remain level-headed, and civil.

One must have dreams....

 

[oldsoul]

Funny. The OP is decidedly non-partisan, yet it took less than a page of posts to turn this into a partisan fight. "The D's this, and the R's that." Get a grip people. This was, in my opinion, designed to make you THINK, yet all we get is knee-jerk partisan hackery. Not one poet so far has actually addressed the subject matter. Unless, of course, it was in an attempt to turn this into a political shooting gallery, where there are no winners, just losers. There are no "targets", just the opposition. For God's sake, pull your heads out of your... Shoot, nevermind, if you don't get it by now, I could post anything and it wouldn't even matter.
Let's try that and see what happens... Ghandi was a God. Anyone want to tell me I'm wrong? I am, he was a MAN, but anyone still reading with a clear head realises that, so It doesn't matter...

Yup. And of course, the point is about far more than politics.
.

Politics are but a blip on the radar of this topic. It's more philosophical in nature, to me at least.

 

[Mac1958]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

I am struggling with that very issue during this administration. Will 45 really cause long-lasting effect (for good or ill) or are his policies really not that significant for the majority of people?

I hope there are no long-term damages, but then you read those analyses that forecast we are having the second coming of Nazi Germany.

I’m not being hyperbolic or facetious. I truly wrestle with this.

My best defense are eyes open, but not in panic.

Yeah, same here, exactly.

When I get worried, I just try to remember the various potential mitigating factors. Stuff happens, people change their mind, people don't always stay true to form, there are still balances of power, on and on.
.

 

[Mac1958]

Funny. The OP is decidedly non-partisan, yet it took less than a page of posts to turn this into a partisan fight. "The D's this, and the R's that." Get a grip people. This was, in my opinion, designed to make you THINK, yet all we get is knee-jerk partisan hackery. Not one poet so far has actually addressed the subject matter. Unless, of course, it was in an attempt to turn this into a political shooting gallery, where there are no winners, just losers. There are no "targets", just the opposition. For God's sake, pull your heads out of your... Shoot, nevermind, if you don't get it by now, I could post anything and it wouldn't even matter.
Let's try that and see what happens... Ghandi was a God. Anyone want to tell me I'm wrong? I am, he was a MAN, but anyone still reading with a clear head realises that, so It doesn't matter...

Yup. And of course, the point is about far more than politics.
.

Politics are but a blip on the radar of this topic. It's more philosophical in nature, to me at least.

Yeah, that's how it hit me when I heard it.
.

 

[oldsoul]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

I am struggling with that very issue during this administration. Will 45 really cause long-lasting effect (for good or ill) or are his policies really not that significant for the majority of people?

I hope there are no long-term damages, but then you read those analyses that forecast we are having the second coming of Nazi Germany.

I’m not being hyperbolic or facetious. I truly wrestle with this.

My best defense are eyes open, but not in panic.

Yeah, same here, exactly.

When I get worried, I just try to remember the various potential mitigating factors. Stuff happens, people change their mind, people don't always stay true to form, on and on.
.

I am reminded of a quote of Winston Churchill. It may not be exact, but:
"Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, after ALL other options are exhausted."

 

[oldsoul]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

 

[Mac1958]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Y'know, it depends on how it's used.

Along the same topic, an economist is very valuable when they stay in their lane - objective analysis and comprehensive, data-driven projections (extrapolations).

But when they become partisan, they become worthless, because they manipulate data and create projections (extrapolations) based on distorted inputs and desired outcomes. Maybe even worse than worthless, dangerous.

Seems to me that when extrapolations are too rigid, it's an indication of intellectual laziness.
.

 

[ricechickie]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

 

[mudwhistle]

So I was watching a video from my favorite technical analysis investment guys, and he made a small, simple, off-hand comment that ended up completely blowing my mind after I thought about it.

When cautioning the viewer to not make simplistic assumptions on future stock market movements just by looking at present-day charts, he said something like, "...we humans do have a bad tendency to make extrapolations..."

Holy cow, I thought. Yeah. Stuff happens in between "here" and "there". That pretty much applies in all parts of life. We tend to just assume that, because of THIS, then THAT will certainly happen.

We all sure do this in politics and legislation, don't we? We assume that something significant, good or bad, will happen simply because of present conditions. There must be a zillion or so examples of us doing that, and no more so in politics.

How much more sensible and decent would our political discourse be if we learned not to make simplistic extrapolations?
.

Extrapolated is past-tense for the harness your Ole lady uses when you live in SF

 

[Mac1958]

Extrapolated is past-tense for the harness your Ole lady uses when you live in SF

Available on Amazon™!
.

 

[william the wie]

I like simple robust long term strategies like covered options.

 

[oldsoul]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Y'know, it depends on how it's used.

Along the same topic, an economist is very valuable when they stay in their lane - objective analysis and comprehensive, data-driven projections (extrapolations).

But when they become partisan, they become worthless, because they manipulate data and create projections (extrapolations) based on distorted inputs and desired outcomes. Maybe even worse than worthless, dangerous.

Seems to me that when extrapolations are too rigid, it's an indication of intellectual laziness.
.

Yes, to me, that is one way one can over-extrapolate.

It gets really dangerous when one holds onto those rigid extrapolations, even when shown to be flawed.

 

[oldsoul]

The real question, to me is:

How do we get other people to realise that over extrapolating is not only dangerous, but down right divisive (if not destructive)?

Maybe when it becomes clear what’s at stake, and unfortunately, I think that means we have to have a catastrophe that affects so many Americans, we can all unite against a common problem or enemy.

I think it runs deeper than that. It would seem that it is intrinsic in the cultural fabric. Let me explain. On 9/11 we had such a catastrophe, how long did it take for us to go right back to the same old way of life? For some it was days, for most it was weeks, maybe months. Sadly, most, if not all, of us went back. Sure there are some things that have changed long term (DHS, Airport screenings, etc.), but what has really changed about the way we look at the world? Not much really. It will take something far more meaningful, something that changes the way we, as humans, look at the world (universe?) around us. The discovery of intelligent life off our planet maybe? Especially if they are far more technologically advanced that we are. The discovery of some truth that we, as yet, do not know/accept? I don't know what it will take. I believe it will be something as transformative as fire was to ancient man. It changed everything.