The early look at 2010-2012

[nodoginnafight]

IMHO:
2012
GOP
Romney - it's his nomination to lose right now
Palin/Huckabee - can be useful but not players
The unknown - someone like a Jindal, or Pawlenty, could emerge and be an even tougher challenger to Obama than Romney.

The General
With the economy rebounding, it's going to be very hard for anyone to defeat Obama - unless there is another economic meltdown. The fact that the GOP has told EVERYONE that their are wagering their future on continued economic distress means no one believes that they are going to try to help solve problems. They are just going to try to create/imagine problems in hopes of regaining some political prestige. I don't think that plays well to independents like myself.

2010
I think the GOP will pick up some seats in the house and senate and some governorships, but they will not be able to overcome Democratic majorities in the House and Senate.

 

[nodoginnafight]

I do think 2012 is likely to be closer than 2008 - as long as the GOP doesn't actually nominate someone like Huckabee and/or Palin

 

[jvn]

In 2010 the GOP may pick up a half dozen seats in the House. The Democrats will pick up 2-3 Senate seats.

In 2012 the GOP had better hope that a candidate like Pawlenty emerges because nominating Romney over Palin would upset the Religious right and the crazy right, and nominating Palin over Romney would enrage the moderates again. A GOP split will once again mean an Obama win.

The GOPs only chance (and that will be a slim one) would be to find a candidate everybody in the party could agree on.

Good luck with that...

 

[nodoginnafight]

nominating Romney over Palin would upset the Religious right and the crazy right, and nominating Palin over Romney would enrage the moderates again. A GOP split will once again mean an Obama win.

Well, I think the radical right will mostly vote Republican anyway. If they cave to that wing, as they did with the Palin nomination, they lose the center. But I think a centerist COULD hold the radical right in line because they aren't likely to vote for Obama anyway.

 

[rightwinger]

In 1984, Ron Reagan, one of our great communicators, ran on a platform of "are you better off now, than you were four years ago?". He came in after the disaster that Jimmy Carter created and pointed back to the histeria at that time and how things had stabilized (remember "Its morning in America...??) He also was in the process of tripling our existing deficit to provoke employment gains and reduction in interest rates. Reagan was overwhelmingly re-elected

Obama in 2012 will run on a similar platform

 

[nodoginnafight]

rightwinger:
I mostly agree. The state of the economy in mid-to-late 2012 will be a big factor. The "are you better off" is a pretty easy sell for Obama imho.