Regardless of what you think of Obama, do you think he has a solid chance of winning?

[konradv]

Depends a lot on the Reps' candidate. If it's Mitt, he'll have a tough time. If it's Newt, it should be a lot like '96, damaged president helped out by a clueless opposition. Dole, REALLY?!?! Newt, REALLY?!?!

 

[Si modo]

Depends a lot on the Reps' candidate. If it's Mitt, he'll have a tough time. If it's Newt, it should be a lot like '96, damaged president helped out by a clueless opposition. Dole, REALLY?!?! Newt, REALLY?!?!

Right now, it's neck and neck for an unnamed Republican vs. Obama. (RCP) Apparently, half the country is of the mind anyone-but-Obama right now.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Depends if Europe falls...which is why the FED is gearing up to provide $100's billions to the IMF and European banks- just watch and see.
Depends on the republican candidate.

In the first election he had anti-Bushism square in his favor - a HUUUGE lift. Also he had little track record to trash, so the fact he had no experience actually helped him.
This election there is a giant billboard of things to be critical of - the Rep candidate literally has dozens of serious flaws to choose from.

It is the Rep's election to lose.

 

[Oldstyle]

Obama continues to have the main stream media in his pocket.

As the result of doing very little BUT campaigning for his next election since he took office he has a huge amount of money stockpiled to use in attacking whoever his opponent is.

Those are his pluses and they are large.

His minuses are the economy and his lack of ideas to improve it. Eric Holder isn't doing him any favors at the moment either.

 

[BluePhantom]

Well the short answer is yes he can win and it all depends on the economy.


The long answer is as follows:

He needs 270 EV to win. Right now he has 217 in the bag (OR, WA, CA, HI, NM, MN, IL, MI, NY, MD, DE, DC, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, and ME)

Whoever gets the Republican nomination he probably has 206 in the bag (ID, AK, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, WV, TN, NC, SC, GA, AL, and MS)

That leaves the following states in play: NV (6), CO (9), IA (6), WI (10), OH (18), PA (20), VA (13), NH (4), and FL (29).

From there it really depends on who the GOP nominee is and what happens over the next 11 months. If Gingrich is the nominee and the economy stays where it right now Obama will probably still pull PA, IA, NH, and WI and maybe he still gets CO, but that leaves him at 266 and he probably loses. If the economy improves he will probably pull OH or VA and then he wins.

If Romney is the nominee and the economy stays where it is right now Obama can kiss NH goodbye and he's going to face a very serious challenge in PA and WI and again he probably loses. If the economy improves then he will probably sneak by.

 

[LadyGunSlinger]

If Ron Paul runs as an Independent Barack Obama will again be President.

 

[jgarden]

When you average the major one-on-one polls conducted during November, Obama consistently leads all GOP presidential candidates.

Unsurprisingly, the one and only Republican candidate that has a realistic chance of defeating the President is Romney - the most liberal of all the GOP presidential contenders.

After Cain's withdrawal, instead of supporting to the most "electable" candidate, the conservative faithful, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to back Gingrich who is now surging ahead in the polls. Based on the polls, Gingrich, compared to Romney, is a candidate that Obama and the Democrats would far rather face in the 2012 General Election.

Whatever Gingrich's pluses, how are the social conservatives, "family values" advocates and the Religious Right, who have long prided themselves on taking the moral "highground," be able to support a repeated "cheater" as their presidential candidate?

 

[Vel]

Incumbency is a hell of an advantage, even in a failed candidate.
Never underestimate the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Think Oilers vs. Bills.

But every now and then..
Music City Miracle - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Mustang]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

 

[Si modo]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

And half the country wants anyone but Obama right now.

 

[Oldstyle]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

A. He now has to run on his record and it isn't very good. Before he was running on not being W. and a vague promise of "Change You Can Believe In". So is anyone REALLY excited about his brand of change these days?

B. The Republicans have two candidates that should worry Obama. Romney will appeal to many of the Independents the President desperately needs. Gingrich's greatest strength is his debating ability. He's one of the few people out there more comfortable than Obama is on stage.

C. The class warfare argument is only being waged because Obama can't run on his economic record.

D. The one thing that Republicans ALL agree on is that Obama needs to go.

 

[Mustang]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

And half the country wants anyone but Obama right now.

Half the country almost always wants a change. And while people are understandably anxious about the state of the economy and what the future holds, most people also know that Obama didn't create the mess we're in. That was years in coming, and it will take years to climb out of it.

With that said, the question to ask is this: Is ANYONE better than Obama? The all too obvious answer is a resounding no.

Look at the GOP field of candidates. It's a joke. I've never seen a weaker group.

After years of saying Obama was not qualified to be president, conservatives went gaga over Cain, who never served in any elective office, ever, and couldn't even answer rudimentary questions without freezing?

And now the conservative family values crowed is seriously considering the reprobate, Gingrich, as a viable contender over the family man, Obama? If this was a movie, the plot would be considered too far-fetched to be plausible.

If conservatives want to win so badly, one has to ask why is it that they seem willing to support candidates who are so obviously flawed.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Regardless of what you think of Obama, do you think he has a solid chance of winning?

Very much so – he remains personally popular and too few democrats will vote for the republican nominee, Gingrich in particular.

 

[Stephanie]

chance-unfortunately yes.

solid--I don't think so. or he wouldn't be out CAMPAGINING all the time instead of being AT THE JOB we are paying him for.

 

[Si modo]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

And half the country wants anyone but Obama right now.

Half the country almost always wants a change. And while people are understandably anxious about the state of the economy and what the future holds, most people also know that Obama didn't creat the mess we're in. That was years in coming, and it will take years to climb out of it.

With that said, the question to ask is this: Is ANYONE better than Obama? The all too obvious answer is a resounding no.

Look at the GOP field of candidates. It's a joke. I've never seen a weaker group.

After years of saying Obama was not qualified to be president, conservatives went gaga over Cain, who never served in any elective office, ever, and couldn't even answer rudimentary questions without freezing?

And now the conservative family values crowed is seriously considering the reprobate, Gingrich, as a viable contender over the family man, Obama? If this was a movie, the plot would be considered too far-fetched to be plausible.

If conservatives want to win so badly, one has to ask why is it that they seem willing to support candidates who are so obviously flawed.

Funny thing is, those first term presidents who have had approval ratings in the low 40s at this point in time, don't get a second term.

I hope that trend holds, personally. But, I won't bet either way...it's too early a year out.

 

[8537]

I'd say he has a better-than 50% chance at the moment, but not by much.

Every day Newt is in the race, Obama's chances get a little bit better.

 

[DiamondDave]

...in 2012?

Of course he does... as seen by the last election, there are a ton of people who can be suckered in by a speech, racial guilt, plain ignorance, promises or perceptions of handouts, a class warfare message, etc....

I hope, however, that there is enough backlash to his horrible policies to kick the fucker out of office

 

[BlindBoo]

Incumbency is a hell of an advantage, even in a failed candidate.
Never underestimate the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Think Oilers vs. Bills.

Oilers vs Bills.

Now I'm just angry all over again.

 

[Caroljo]

Of course he does.

A. He's the incumbent
B. The Republican field is weak
C. The Republicans are losing the class warfare argument
D. Republicans are divided

And half the country wants anyone but Obama right now.

Half the country almost always wants a change. And while people are understandably anxious about the state of the economy and what the future holds, most people also know that Obama didn't creat the mess we're in. That was years in coming, and it will take years to climb out of it.

With that said, the question to ask is this: Is ANYONE better than Obama? The all too obvious answer is a resounding no.

Look at the GOP field of candidates. It's a joke. I've never seen a weaker group.

After years of saying Obama was not qualified to be president, conservatives went gaga over Cain, who never served in any elective office, ever, and couldn't even answer rudimentary questions without freezing?

And now the conservative family values crowed is seriously considering the reprobate, Gingrich, as a viable contender over the family man, Obama? If this was a movie, the plot would be considered too far-fetched to be plausible.

If conservatives want to win so badly, one has to ask why is it that they seem willing to support candidates who are so obviously flawed.

You support a president that is so obviously flawed.....so this should work out well.

 

[candycorn]

Well the short answer is yes he can win and it all depends on the economy.


The long answer is as follows:

He needs 270 EV to win. Right now he has 217 in the bag (OR, WA, CA, HI, NM, MN, IL, MI, NY, MD, DE, DC, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, and ME)

Whoever gets the Republican nomination he probably has 206 in the bag (ID, AK, UT, AZ, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, WV, TN, NC, SC, GA, AL, and MS)

That leaves the following states in play: NV (6), CO (9), IA (6), WI (10), OH (18), PA (20), VA (13), NH (4), and FL (29).

From there it really depends on who the GOP nominee is and what happens over the next 11 months. If Gingrich is the nominee and the economy stays where it right now Obama will probably still pull PA, IA, NH, and WI and maybe he still gets CO, but that leaves him at 266 and he probably loses. If the economy improves he will probably pull OH or VA and then he wins.

If Romney is the nominee and the economy stays where it is right now Obama can kiss NH goodbye and he's going to face a very serious challenge in PA and WI and again he probably loses. If the economy improves then he will probably sneak by.

PA and WI are going Blue. Make it 247 for Mr. Obama. Arizona may be closer than you think. Brewer isn't doing much to help the GOP. I won't say "no chance" that Obama loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but Romney will have to spend a lot of money there to turn the tide. Money that will be better spent in Ohio, Virginia and Florida where he has a better shot.