Recent Climate Research

[mamooth]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

 

[IanC]

Let me guess...'reanalyzed' data? Hahahaha.

I hope it's better than Dessler's stab at it where he ignored actual temperature data and used wind speeds as a proxy for temperature instead.

 

[orogenicman]

Let me guess...'reanalyzed' data? Hahahaha.

I hope it's better than Dessler's stab at it where he ignored actual temperature data and used wind speeds as a proxy for temperature instead.

The data is there for everyone to access, so if you believe this is incorrect, or else a conspiracy to gain more grant money, I challenge you to download the data and publish your own original work to counter those of the authors of this work. or if you like, produce your own original dataset and publish it along with your results. I'll wait here while you get this done.

 

[mamooth]

A link to the paper.

Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data IUKv2 - IOPscience
---
First, tropical warming is equally strong over both the 1959–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, increasing smoothly and almost moist-adiabatically from the surface (where it is roughly 0.14 K/decade) to 300 hPa (where it is about 0.25 K/decade over both periods), a pattern very close to that in climate model predictions. This contradicts suggestions that atmospheric warming has slowed in recent decades or that it has not kept up with that at the surface.

Second, as shown in previous studies, tropospheric warming does not reach quite as high in the tropics and subtropics as predicted in typical models.

Third, cooling has slackened in the stratosphere such that linear trends since 1979 are about half as strong as reported earlier for shorter periods. Wind trends over the period 1979–2012 confirm a strengthening, lifting and poleward shift of both subtropical westerly jets; the Northern one shows more displacement and the southern more intensification, but these details appear sensitive to the time period analysed. There is also a trend toward more easterly winds in the middle and upper troposphere of the deep tropics.
---

Links to all the data sets:

Prof. Steve Sherwood - Climate Change Research Centre CCRC - University of New South Wales - Australia

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What if the Hot Spot meets the Pacific Blob?!!!!! Will Guam tip over?

 

[Billy_Bob]

A link to the paper.

Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data IUKv2 - IOPscience
---
First, tropical warming is equally strong over both the 1959–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, increasing smoothly and almost moist-adiabatically from the surface (where it is roughly 0.14 K/decade) to 300 hPa (where it is about 0.25 K/decade over both periods), a pattern very close to that in climate model predictions. This contradicts suggestions that atmospheric warming has slowed in recent decades or that it has not kept up with that at the surface.

Second, as shown in previous studies, tropospheric warming does not reach quite as high in the tropics and subtropics as predicted in typical models.

Third, cooling has slackened in the stratosphere such that linear trends since 1979 are about half as strong as reported earlier for shorter periods. Wind trends over the period 1979–2012 confirm a strengthening, lifting and poleward shift of both subtropical westerly jets; the Northern one shows more displacement and the southern more intensification, but these details appear sensitive to the time period analysed. There is also a trend toward more easterly winds in the middle and upper troposphere of the deep tropics.
---

Links to all the data sets:

Prof. Steve Sherwood - Climate Change Research Centre CCRC - University of New South Wales - Australia

2008 paper... it is not new. its same old rehash showing that unadjusted data is better for finding mean trends. Homogenization resulted in spurious warming signals that were not present in the original data.

"The procedure appears to have been successful in eliminating systematic temperature biases in most regions, although the deep tropics appear to retain cooling biases over time that we still cannot identify; these may be due to changes that are too numerous to detect, or not step-like. A penalty paid for the elimination of systematic biases is that random errors are not reduced as effectively as other methods, so that individual stations now have trends that are about as variable as in the raw data; however, the accuracy of zonal means appears to be significantly improved. The dataset and some trend results are described more fully in Sherwood et al. (2008) ."

WE will see if version 2.0 is better by statistical analysis. The cooling trend is easily explained by the rise in LWIR at the TOA. Still however they do not identify a hot spot of any kind. The temp MOE is larger than their "hot" spot temperature rise.

 

[Billy_Bob]

What if the Hot Spot meets the Pacific Blob?!!!!! Will Guam tip over?

They do not identify a mid tropospheric hot spot of any kind only cooling that they can not explain. SO to answer your question, Guam will tip over.

 

[westwall]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

I hate to break it to you, but when they resort to sample "data" from UNSAMPLED locations, they lose all validity. That is what Kriging is all about. "Geostatistics", isd another way of saying, "we made this up".



"Geostatistics" is the generic name for a family of techniques which are used for mapping of surfaces from limited sample data and the estimation of values at unsampled locations. First developed almost 60 years ago by Georges Matheron (above left) and named in honour of Danie Krige (right), these methods are now widely used in the minerals industry and have disseminated out into many other fields where 'spatial' data is studied.

What is kriging anyway

 

[orogenicman]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

I hate to break it to you, but when they resort to sample "data" from UNSAMPLED locations, they lose all validity. That is what Kriging is all about. "Geostatistics", isd another way of saying, "we made this up".



"Geostatistics" is the generic name for a family of techniques which are used for mapping of surfaces from limited sample data and the estimation of values at unsampled locations. First developed almost 60 years ago by Georges Matheron (above left) and named in honour of Danie Krige (right), these methods are now widely used in the minerals industry and have disseminated out into many other fields where 'spatial' data is studied.

What is kriging anyway

I use kriging in astronomy all the time. Works fine. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Example of one-dimensional data interpolation by Kriging,
with confidence intervals. Squares indicate the location of the data.
The Kriging interpolation, shown in red, runs along the means of the
normally distributed confidence intervals shown in gray. The dashed
curve shows a spline that while smooth nevertheless departs
significantly from the expected intermediate values given by those means.

 

[Billy_Bob]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

I hate to break it to you, but when they resort to sample "data" from UNSAMPLED locations, they lose all validity. That is what Kriging is all about. "Geostatistics", isd another way of saying, "we made this up".



"Geostatistics" is the generic name for a family of techniques which are used for mapping of surfaces from limited sample data and the estimation of values at unsampled locations. First developed almost 60 years ago by Georges Matheron (above left) and named in honour of Danie Krige (right), these methods are now widely used in the minerals industry and have disseminated out into many other fields where 'spatial' data is studied.

What is kriging anyway

Funny how they do not acknowledge the laws of random distribution are the root of geological mapping which uses this type of data creation. The atmosphere however does not track well, as the atmosphere is not well mixed thus random distribution is not a viable remedy for replacement of actual measurement.

I use the term "Poke and Hope" to describe this type of behavior

 

[orogenicman]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

I hate to break it to you, but when they resort to sample "data" from UNSAMPLED locations, they lose all validity. That is what Kriging is all about. "Geostatistics", isd another way of saying, "we made this up".



"Geostatistics" is the generic name for a family of techniques which are used for mapping of surfaces from limited sample data and the estimation of values at unsampled locations. First developed almost 60 years ago by Georges Matheron (above left) and named in honour of Danie Krige (right), these methods are now widely used in the minerals industry and have disseminated out into many other fields where 'spatial' data is studied.

What is kriging anyway

Funny how they do not acknowledge the laws of random distribution are the root of geological mapping which uses this type of data creation. The atmosphere however does not track well, as the atmosphere is not well mixed thus random distribution is not a viable remedy for replacement of actual measurement.

I use the term "Poke and Hope" to describe this type of behavior

A Kriging Approach to the Analysis of Climate Model Experiments - ResearchGate

ABSTRACT A climate model is a computer implementation of a mathematical model for the physical, chemical and biological processes underlying the climate. An immediate use of a climate model is in performing climate model experiments, where uncertain input quantities, such as greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, are systematically varied to gain insight into their effects on the climate system. Climate models are computationally intensive, allowing only small experiments. We present a multidimensional kriging method to predict climate model variables at new inputs, based on the experimental data available. The method is particularly suitable for situations in which the climate model data sets share a common pattern across the input space, such as surface temperatures that are lower at the Poles, higher at the Equator, and increasing over time. The results demonstrate the potential of our kriging method as an exploratory tool in climate science.

A Kriging Approach to the Analysis of Climate Model Experiments - ResearchGate. Available from: A Kriging Approach to the Analysis of Climate Model Experiments - ResearchGate [accessed May 17, 2015].

 

[orogenicman]

Let me guess...'reanalyzed' data? Hahahaha.

I hope it's better than Dessler's stab at it where he ignored actual temperature data and used wind speeds as a proxy for temperature instead.

The data is there for everyone to access, so if you believe this is incorrect, or else a conspiracy to gain more grant money, I challenge you to download the data and publish your own original work to counter those of the authors of this work. or if you like, produce your own original dataset and publish it along with your results. I'll wait here while you get this done.

<crickets chirping>

 

[Old Rocks]

A thread for discussing recent scientific papers.

Yes, a few crazies are going to auto-shriek that everything is faked. Please just try to ignore them. If they go too far with their attempts to spam, troll and trash the thread, report them.

Climate scientists find elusive tropospheric hot spot EurekAlert Science News
---
Researchers have published results in Environmental Research Letters confirming strong warming in the upper troposphere, known colloquially as the tropospheric hotspot. The hot has been long expected as part of global warming theory and appears in many global climate models.

The inability to detect this hotspot previously has been used by those who doubt man-made global warming to suggest climate change is not occurring as a result of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

"Using more recent data and better analysis methods we have been able to re-examine the global weather balloon network, known as radiosondes, and have found clear indications of warming in the upper troposphere," said lead author ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science Chief Investigator Prof Steve Sherwood.

"We were able to do this by producing a publicly available temperature and wind data set of the upper troposphere extending from 1958-2012, so it is there for anyone to see."
---

I hate to break it to you, but when they resort to sample "data" from UNSAMPLED locations, they lose all validity. That is what Kriging is all about. "Geostatistics", isd another way of saying, "we made this up".



"Geostatistics" is the generic name for a family of techniques which are used for mapping of surfaces from limited sample data and the estimation of values at unsampled locations. First developed almost 60 years ago by Georges Matheron (above left) and named in honour of Danie Krige (right), these methods are now widely used in the minerals industry and have disseminated out into many other fields where 'spatial' data is studied.

What is kriging anyway

Funny how they do not acknowledge the laws of random distribution are the root of geological mapping which uses this type of data creation. The atmosphere however does not track well, as the atmosphere is not well mixed thus random distribution is not a viable remedy for replacement of actual measurement.

I use the term "Poke and Hope" to describe this type of behavior

The atmosphere is not well mixed? The water molecule is ten times the size of the carbon dioxide molecule. My, my, the things one learns when reading Boobs posts.