Rassmussen State By State: Romney 279, Obama 243, 24 Tied

[TheGreatGatsby]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

 

[Old Rocks]

Colorado tie 5 polls, 2 for Romney, 2 for Obama, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

Florida Governor Romney 1.3 6 polls, 4 Romney, one Obama, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

Iowa President Obama 1.0 3 polls, one Obama, one Romney, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Iowa: Romney vs. Obama

Michigan President Obama 4.0 4 polls, 3 Obama, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Michigan: Romney vs. Obama

Nevada President Obama 2.4 5 polls, all Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Nevada: Romney vs. Obama

New Hampshire President Obama 1.0 3 polls, 2 Obama, one Romney

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama

North Carolina Governor Romney 3.3 6 polls, 4 for Romney, 2 ties

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - North Carolina: Romney vs. Obama

Ohio President Obama 2.4 8 polls, 7 Obama, one Romney

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Pennsylvania President Obama 4.7 4 polls, all Obama

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama

Virginia President Obama 0.3 6 polls, 2 Romney, 2 Obama, 2 tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Virginia: Romney vs. Obama

Wisconsin President Obama 2.3 4 polls, 3 Obama, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 281 Governor Romney 257

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

 

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 299 Governor Romney 239

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

President Obama 294 Governor Romney 244

2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

 

[Sarah G]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

Looks like Romney has it all wrapped up in your book. He doesn't even need to campaign anymore, it's over... Life sure is good for Romney these days, he's doing so well, like 5 points ahead in every state,

Unbelievable, incredulous even.. You should change your name to the dumb gatsby.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

Looks like Romney has it all wrapped up in your book. He doesn't even need to campaign anymore, it's over... Life sure is good for Romney these days, he's doing so well, like 5 points ahead in every state,

Unbelievable, incredulous even.. You should change your name to the dumb gatsby.

Did I say all that, really? Some polls are within the margin of error and there's still a week til the election.

I merely, posted polls. Nothing more, nothing less.

As it is, I do tend to trust Rasmussen the most, so I do think it's good news. However, no poll is infallible.

And to be honest, I as a conservative do believe that these Rasmussen polls are more accurate than the Real Clear Nonsense stuff that doesn't differentiate between good polls and hack polls.

 

[konradv]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Yes, why? What reason have you been fed?

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

And who was most accurate in 2008?

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

WRONG!

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

 

[AceRothstein]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

WRONG!

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

How many times are you cons going to post that same Fordham study that was done BEFORE the 2008 election? It was done assuming a smaller victory for Obama than he had. While Rasmussen was close, there were others who hit the actual numbers such as CNN & Ipsos.

You should also take a look at Rasmussen's state polling from 2008, not so good.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

Why would you trust Rasmussen? Historically it's been an outlier in the polls.

WRONG!

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

How many times are you cons going to post that same Fordham study that was done BEFORE the 2008 election? It was done assuming a smaller victory for Obama than he had. While Rasmussen was close, there were others who hit the actual numbers such as CNN & Ipsos.

You should also take a look at Rasmussen's state polling from 2008, not so good.

Yes just ignore the other link

 

[AceRothstein]

WRONG!

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...ccuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate? | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog

http://www.politisite.com/2012/10/0...itical-polls-from-2008-presidential-election/

How many times are you cons going to post that same Fordham study that was done BEFORE the 2008 election? It was done assuming a smaller victory for Obama than he had. While Rasmussen was close, there were others who hit the actual numbers such as CNN & Ipsos.

You should also take a look at Rasmussen's state polling from 2008, not so good.

Yes just ignore the other link

The politisite link? I will ignore it because it is also wrong. Under their data they are using a spread of 6.5 when in reality it was 7.2.

 

[mamooth]

Shift each Rasmussen poll towards Obama by 3-4 points, and you get a fairly accurate poll. Rasmussen is useful in how they have that consistent Republican bias, so you can simply remove it to get good numbers. Gallup is less useful, being their Republican bias fluctuates so wildly.

 

[Leweman]

Shift each Rasmussen poll towards Obama by 3-4 points, and you get a fairly accurate poll. Rasmussen is useful in how they have that consistent Republican bias, so you can simply remove it to get good numbers. Gallup is less useful, being their Republican bias fluctuates so wildly.

How is it biased for Republicans when he over samples Dems compared to what the Rep turnout will be. Romney is crushing in Independents. Just an even Dem to Rep turnout means a huge Romney win. No polls are sampling based on that not even Rasmussen. Why do you Dems ignore that?

 

[mamooth]

Polls don't sample based on party affiliation. Polls _ask_ about party affiliation. If a pollster reports more Democrats, it's because more people self-identified to the poll as Democrats.

It's almost certainly the likely-voter model screens which makes Ras and Gallup so wacky. Pollsters don't reveal them, as those are trade secrets, so I can't be more specific.

 

[Leweman]

Polls don't sample based on party affiliation. Polls _ask_ about party affiliation. If a pollster reports more Democrats, it's because more people self-identified to the poll as Democrats.

It's almost certainly the likely-voter model screens which makes Ras and Gallup so wacky. Pollsters don't reveal them, as those are trade secrets, so I can't be more specific.

It doesn't change the fact the poll will be inaccurate. Pubs will have the advantage in turnout this year.

 

[elvis]

It's tied.

 

[AceRothstein]

Shift each Rasmussen poll towards Obama by 3-4 points, and you get a fairly accurate poll. Rasmussen is useful in how they have that consistent Republican bias, so you can simply remove it to get good numbers. Gallup is less useful, being their Republican bias fluctuates so wildly.

How is it biased for Republicans when he over samples Dems compared to what the Rep turnout will be. Romney is crushing in Independents. Just an even Dem to Rep turnout means a huge Romney win. No polls are sampling based on that not even Rasmussen. Why do you Dems ignore that?

Maybe you should start your own polling firm since you think you have all of the answers and they are wrong.

 

[mamooth]

It doesn't change the fact the poll will be inaccurate. Pubs will have the advantage in turnout this year.

Wishing very hard for something to be true won't make it so. There's no evidence that the Republican turnout advantage is going to be anything special this year. They always get a couple points worth of turnout advantage, but that's accounted for in the polls.

 

[Trajan]

Based upon the latest Rasmussen Polls:

Ohio (10/29) - Romney 50, Obama 48
North Carolina (10/27) - Romney 52, Obama 46
Wisconsin (10/26) - Obama 49, Romney 49 (Romney leads 51-47 among voters who say they're sure to vote)
Florida (10/26) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Virginia (10/25) - Romney 50, Obama 47
Pennsylvania (10/25) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Arizona (10/25) - Romney 52, Obama 44
New Hampshire (10/24) - Romney 50, Obama 48
Nevada (10/24) - Obama 50, Romney 48
Michigan (10/12) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Minnesota (10/23) - Obama 51, Romney 46
Connecticut (10/23) - Obama 52, Romney 45
Colorado (10/22) - Romney 50, Obama 46
Iowa (10/21) - Obama 48, Romney 48
Missouri (10/19) - Romney 54, Obama 43
Montana (10/17) - Romney 53, Obama 45
Washington (10/17) - Obama 55, Romney 42
Mass. (10/16) - Obama 57, Romney 42
Indiana (10/16) - Romney 54, Obama 41
New Mexico (10/10) - Obama 54, Romney 43
Maine (Unkn.) - Obama 52, Romney 40

thats jacked, cannot be.......

its Rasmussen and you know they are bias.....and Gallup is to ( now they they reflect basically the same and other inconvenient numbers)......


so let me go massage in some Media polls that use a +8 dem advantage so I can make beleive Ras and Gallup don't know what they are doing at this point....

oops, wait, Old Socks beat me to it......