No sign of race tightening

[DiveCon]

^ 2004 looks about right to me.

If you want to continue to fool yourself into thinking that the polls aren't correct or way off ... be my guest.

Expect an "I told you so" on November 5th ...

actually, that poll WAS way off
Bush got over 50%

 

[Article 15]

actually, that poll WAS way off
Bush got over 50%

There was still 3.5% undecided on the last date of the average ...

 

[Article 15]

My core argument is that polls are not ALWAYS accurate. David S has said repeatedly that they are. Now, however, he posts polls in this thread (which in the past he said were reliable when they had Obama ahead by double digits) with a heading that says "Race shows no signs of tightening". But you look at the numbers of the states he posted, and not only is the race tightening, but they are close to the margin of error. But we are to disregard the rules of statistics and basic arithmetic and crown Obama king.

I was correct about RCP. They average the percentages of each poll, which makes it no more useful than any other poll.

I am not DavidS. I am Article 15 and I was the one who told you that RCP averages the polls before you even clicked the link.

And the polls aren't tightening. What is happening is the electoral map is sliding away from McCain. Arizona is now leaning McCain, Montana and North Dakota are toss ups, and yes, even Georgia has recently been taken out of the "solid McCain" category.

 

[Article 15]

That doesn't mean RCP is more reliable. Each one of those polls has a different sample space. We don't know the factors which went into each of those polls. (margin of error, randomization, etc.)
Tell you what, if Obama wins, Ill send you a dollar. If Mac wins, you send me a thousand. Just how confident are you?

We know that whatever methodology they used it worked ...

Edit to add:

I'll make a signature wager with you.

McCain loses you wear the sig of my choice for a week.

Obama loses I will wear the sig of your choice for a month.

 

[Annie]

Regardless of our opinions of this or that poll, only the election matters. Bottom line, whether from the right or left, polls are posted to bother the 'other.' Of course we only post those that show what we want to see.

 

[elvis]

I am not DavidS. I am Article 15 and I was the one who told you that RCP averages the polls before you even clicked the link.

And the polls aren't tightening. What is happening is the electoral map is sliding away from McCain. Arizona is now leaning McCain, Montana and North Dakota are toss ups, and yes, even Georgia has recently been taken out of the "solid McCain" category.

regardless, they average the "leads" of each poll, which makes them no more or less reliable than any other poll. I didn't know if when you said "poll" you meant the number of points, of if they took the sample space of each poll.

You asked me about my core argument. I explained that I don't think polls are ALWAYS accurate. David S has stated in previous posts that the trends cannot be bucked. I said the race was tighening based on the numbers David S provided from polls he trusts. If you were to look at polls he posted three or four days ago, you would understand where I am coming from..

 

[elvis]

We know that whatever methodology they used it worked ...

Edit to add:

I'll make a signature wager with you.

McCain loses you wear the sig of my choice for a week.

Obama loses I will wear the sig of your choice for a month.

the fact the methodology worked doesn't mean the averaging method is reliable. What was that Rays' fan's methodology? He is three wins away from a 250:1 payout. I wouldn't take that bet.

I think to get a sweet wager, I would have to go with David S simply because he is so cocky, he's liable to give me Trump Tower if McCain wins.

Honestly, it would depend on the signature/avatar.

 

[Article 15]

the fact the methodology worked doesn't mean the averaging method is reliable. What was that Rays' fan's methodology? He is three wins away from a 250:1 payout. I wouldn't take that bet.

I think to get a sweet wager, I would have to go with David S simply because he is so cocky, he's liable to give me Trump Tower if McCain wins.

Honestly, it would depend on the signature/avatar.

This wild comparison to the Tampa Bay Rays baseball season is flat out stupid. You are trying to compare apples to anvils.

And I don't blame you for not taking the bet. If my guy was that ridiculously far behind in the polls and on the electoral map with a week to go I wouldn't want to wager on it either.

Actually, come to think of it maybe you do realize exactly how far behind McCain is at this point ... subconsciously at least. The bet you offered me was laying McCain 1000-1 odds to win ...

 

[Article 15]

regardless, they average the "leads" of each poll, which makes them no more or less reliable than any other poll. I didn't know if when you said "poll" you meant the number of points, of if they took the sample space of each poll.

You asked me about my core argument. I explained that I don't think polls are ALWAYS accurate. David S has stated in previous posts that the trends cannot be bucked. I said the race was tighening based on the numbers David S provided from polls he trusts. If you were to look at polls he posted three or four days ago, you would understand where I am coming from..

Once again, I am not DavidS. I get my info from 538.com and RCP. These are sites that analyze all the polls as opposed to cherry picking to fit an agenda.

I have watched the map and the polls steadily break Obama's way every since the market crashed.

 

[DiveCon]

This wild comparison to the Tampa Bay Rays baseball season is flat out stupid. You are trying to compare apples to anvils.

And I don't blame you for not taking the bet. If my guy was that ridiculously far behind in the polls and on the electoral map with a week to go I wouldn't want to wager on it either.

Actually, come to think of it maybe you do realize exactly how far behind McCain is at this point ... subconsciously at least. The bet you offered me was laying McCain 1000-1 odds to win ...

lol
you know i dont make silly online bets anyway

 

[Article 15]

lol
you know i dont make silly online bets anyway

I know you don't ...

But I do think it's funny that the bet elvis likes lays McCain 1000-1 to win ...

 

[DiveCon]

and i bet those odds are based on these manipulated polls

 

[Article 15]

and i bet those odds are based on these manipulated polls

 

[DiveCon]

if you find someone giving you those kinds of odds
you should put a little on it
i'd say at least $20
the return would be amazing

 

[elvis]

This wild comparison to the Tampa Bay Rays baseball season is flat out stupid. You are trying to compare apples to anvils.

And I don't blame you for not taking the bet. If my guy was that ridiculously far behind in the polls and on the electoral map with a week to go I wouldn't want to wager on it either.

Actually, come to think of it maybe you do realize exactly how far behind McCain is at this point ... subconsciously at least. The bet you offered me was laying McCain 1000-1 odds to win ...

1. I was merely pointing out that the guy who made the wager may turn out to be correct, but that doesn't make his method reliable. I pointed out an extreme case to make a point. People do it all the time.
2. I can't figure out why you think he is "ridiculously behind". but fine.
3. You kept saying how I need to come back to reality, like you know what reality is and can see the future. Apparently you aren't that confident McCain will lose.
4. If you look at the end of my post, you will see I said it depends on the signature. so I didn't exactly say I wouldnt take the bet, now did I?

 

[elvis]

Once again, I am not DavidS. I get my info from 538.com and RCP. These are sites that analyze all the polls as opposed to cherry picking to fit an agenda.

I have watched the map and the polls steadily break Obama's way every since the market crashed.

I know who you are. I was trying to explain where my original argument was coming from. It was coming from David S.'s beligerence. I guess I shouldn't have explained where it was coming from.

 

[Article 15]

1. I was merely pointing out that the guy who made the wager may turn out to be correct, but that doesn't make his method reliable. I pointed out an extreme case to make a point. People do it all the time.
2. I can't figure out why you think he is "ridiculously behind". but fine.
3. You kept saying how I need to come back to reality, like you know what reality is and can see the future. Apparently you aren't that confident McCain will lose.
4. If you look at the end of my post, you will see I said it depends on the signature. so I didn't exactly say I wouldnt take the bet, now did I?

I am extremely confident that McCain will lose. As a matter of fact I started a thread a couple of weeks back flat out guaranteeing it.

You on the other hand proposed a bet where your guy is getting a 1000-1 odds.

Exactly which one of us isn't confident?

 

[elvis]

I am extremely confident that McCain will lose. As a matter of fact I started a thread a couple of weeks back flat out guaranteeing it.

You on the other hand proposed a bet where your guy is getting a 1000-1 odds.

Exactly which one of us isn't confident?

I am not that confident McCain will lose.
I was trying to guage how confident you are. apparently you don't have a crystal ball. Again, I said it would depend on the signature.

 

[Luissa]

and what were the Devil Rays' odds at the beginning of the season? or the New York Giants in the Super Bowl?

I am sure not good! I was just trying to change it up on the poll issue! And some of the odds are in favor of McCain!

 

[DavidS]

I am extremely confident that McCain will lose. As a matter of fact I started a thread a couple of weeks back flat out guaranteeing it.

You on the other hand proposed a bet where your guy is getting a 1000-1 odds.

Exactly which one of us isn't confident?

This isn't about odds. This isn't about a few people playing a game. This is about tens of millions of people who have already made up their mind and voted. This is over for McCain. Now, I expect him to rally his troops and go out there and do their job and vote. I just hope there aren't any additional audio or video tapes that are thrown into the forray to try and distract us from the issues.