No sign of race tightening

[Article 15]

The polls the day of the primary had Obama winning by double digits. Everyone was expecting Hillary to drop out that very night.

Again .. you are talking about one state and about a weeks worth of polling.

WE are talking about about a dozen or so states and months of polling ...

 

[elvis]

Again .. you are talking about one state and about a weeks worth of polling.

WE are talking about about a dozen or so states and months of polling ...

first of all, these polls are getting tighter. each of the states listed are nearly tied.

 

[DavidS]

which are damn near tied.

you consider +11 a tie? Because that's big of a lead he's got in Virginia.

 

[Article 15]

which are damn near tied.

On what planet?

Nevada 3.5

Colorado 6.2

Virginia 7.3

 

[Article 15]

first of all, these polls are getting tighter. each of the states listed are nearly tied.

No ... they really aren't ....

 

[DavidS]

first of all, these polls are getting tighter. each of the states listed are nearly tied.

Ok, I'm done. You're just afraid of the Democrats winning and you don't want to admit it. No one, not Karl Rove, not Newt Gingrich, not the RNC expects McCain to win next week. It's over. Save yourself some face.

 

[Missourian]

Rasmussen Reports
10/26/08; 1,000 LV, 3.5%
Mode: IVR
(source)

Colorado
Obama 50, McCain 46

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 47

Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 47

North Carolina
McCain 49, Obama 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 45

Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 47


From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

It's your thread David. 51 to 47 is darn near tied. The Margin of Error is +/- 3.

Senator Obama has a one point lead outside the MoE in the poll you posted.

.​

 

[elvis]

Rasmussen Reports
10/26/08; 1,000 LV, 3.5%
Mode: IVR
(source)

Colorado
Obama 50, McCain 46

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 47

Missouri
Obama 48, McCain 47

North Carolina
McCain 49, Obama 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 45

Virginia
Obama 51, McCain 47


From FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

Maybe this is the "new math" but 51-47 is not 11 for virginia. 50-46 is not 6.2 for coloraddo.
Assuming Nevada is 3.5, anything 3.5 and below is a statistical tie.

Add to that, Ed Rendell isn't exactly thrilled about Pennsylvania.

PA Governor 'Nervous,' Sees McCain Surge - Political Machine

 

[elvis]

Ok, I'm done. You're just afraid of the Democrats winning and you don't want to admit it. No one, not Karl Rove, not Newt Gingrich, not the RNC expects McCain to win next week. It's over. Save yourself some face.

you're done? why? you are the one that posted that the race isn't tightening, when the numbers you posted indicated that it is.

 

[Article 15]

Maybe this is the "new math" but 51-47 is not 11 for virginia. 50-46 is not 6.2 for coloraddo.
Assuming Nevada is 3.5, anything 3.5 and below is a statistical tie.

Add to that, Ed Rendell isn't exactly thrilled about Pennsylvania.

PA Governor 'Nervous,' Sees McCain Surge - Political Machine

You should go to RCP and learn a thing or two ...

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

 

[elvis]

You should go to RCP and learn a thing or two ...

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

why should I? David S swears these rasmussen polls are accurate. if they are, mac's chances have improved dramatically. some of the states in the very polls he listed had obama ahead by double digits not three days ago. so.......

i am only to believe dave's polls when they say the Messiah is ahead by 12+

help me understand.

 

[Article 15]

why should I?

So you can face some reality for a change ...

David S swears the polls are accurate. if they are, mac's chances have improved dramatically. some of the states in the very polls he listed had obama ahead by double digits not three days ago. so.......

i am only to believe dave's polls when they say the one is ahead by 12+

help me understand.

Mac's chances haven't improved dramatically.

More leaks have opened up against him in the electoral map ...

RCP takes the averages of ALL the polls to come up with a more accurate picture as opposed to cherry picking polls to fool people into believing something that's just not true ...

 

[elvis]

So you can face some reality for a change ...



Mac's chances haven't improved dramatically.

More leaks have opened up against him in the electoral map ...

RCP takes the averages of ALL the polls to come up with a more accurate picture as opposed to cherry picking polls to fool people into believing something that's just not true ...

if they average the percentages, which I think they do, they are no more accurate than any other poll.

 

[Article 15]

if they average the percentages, which I think they do, they are no more accurate than any other poll.

^ 2004 looks about right to me.

If you want to continue to fool yourself into thinking that the polls aren't correct or way off ... be my guest.

Expect an "I told you so" on November 5th ...

 

[DiveCon]

You should go to RCP and learn a thing or two ...

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

thats all fine and good
but if you average faulty data(over sampled democrats) you will still get a faulty average
yeah yeah yeha, i know
more democrats
but not THAT much more

 

[Article 15]

if they average the percentages, which I think they do, they are no more accurate than any other poll.

Ok ... here's what I am trippin' on ...

You're core argument seems to be that "polls aren't accurate" but you also want to agrue that the polls are moving towards McCain ...

If they aren't accurate how can you believe they are moving toward McCain?

 

[Article 15]

thats all fine and good
but if you average faulty data(over sampled democrats) you will still get a faulty average
yeah yeah yeha, i know
more democrats
but not THAT much more

I heard McCain say in an interview either today or yesterday that the 8-10 point lead wasn't accurate ... that they were really down 5 points.

5 points (and that's just nationally)

7 days

 

[elvis]

Ok ... here's what I am trippin' on ...

You're core argument seems to be that "polls aren't accurate" but you also want to agrue that the polls are moving towards McCain ...

If they aren't accurate how can you believe they are moving toward McCain?

My core argument is that polls are not ALWAYS accurate. David S has said repeatedly that they are. Now, however, he posts polls in this thread (which in the past he said were reliable when they had Obama ahead by double digits) with a heading that says "Race shows no signs of tightening". But you look at the numbers of the states he posted, and not only is the race tightening, but they are close to the margin of error. But we are to disregard the rules of statistics and basic arithmetic and crown Obama king.

I was correct about RCP. They average the percentages of each poll, which makes it no more useful than any other poll.

 

[elvis]

^ 2004 looks about right to me.

If you want to continue to fool yourself into thinking that the polls aren't correct or way off ... be my guest.

Expect an "I told you so" on November 5th ...

That doesn't mean RCP is more reliable. Each one of those polls has a different sample space. We don't know the factors which went into each of those polls. (margin of error, randomization, etc.)
Tell you what, if Obama wins, Ill send you a dollar. If Mac wins, you send me a thousand. Just how confident are you?

 

[DiveCon]

My core argument is that polls are not ALWAYS accurate. David S has said repeatedly that they are. Now, however, he posts polls in this thread (which in the past he said were reliable when they had Obama ahead by double digits) with a heading that says "Race shows no signs of tightening". But you look at the numbers of the states he posted, and not only is the race tightening, but they are close to the margin of error. But we are to disregard the rules of statistics and basic arithmetic and crown Obama king.

I was correct about RCP. They average the percentages of each poll, which makes it no more useful than any other poll.

actually, if you consider some of the polls they use are way out of the range of the rest, its worse