Merry Christmas! North Pole Forecast To Be 50 Degrees Warmer Than Normal This Week

[Crick]

We had this out just a couple of weeks ago. Short term memory loss? The statement was "as early as", not "no later than".

This data trend goes to zero in September of 2032. The 2 sigma span runs from 2023 to 2041. Do you think these data indicate ice is growing? By the way, the lower 2 sigma on the April trend indicate we could have a year round, ice-free Arctic before the end of the 21st century.

 

[polarbear]

Freakishly warm weather hits North Pole days before Christmas

Santa's elves were likely a bit warm this week during final Christmas preparations.

Temperatures at the North Pole soared to the melting point of 32 degrees Thursday, according to data from a nearby weather buoy. That might not sound balmy, but it's some 40 to 50 degrees above average at what's typically an unimaginably cold, pitch-black point in mid-winter.

In fact, the average winter temperature at the North Pole is about 40 degrees below zero, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said.

Who to believe, Comrade Frankie boi, or Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.

Did you bother to follow the links your sensational article posts to pass off this fake as fact?
Obviously not, because all these so called reports just quote each other and the hoaxter that started it was as usual a blogger from Australia. No matter the entire chain link lie ends here:
abp.apl.washington.edu/raw_plots.php?bid=300234064010010#top
The images posted there are from gettyimages.co in the UK and were uploaded in September
This Andrew Freedman who started this rumor that everybody incl. the WashPost re-screamed posted this graph

which is a blatant forgery of this original:

But that does not bother you, does it ?

 

[Crick]

Your UW link doesn't work

NSIDC shows the Arctic +10C for November. Was that a hoax?

 

[skookerasbil]

Again.........just to point out.........this type of event has happened many, many times since 1950. The k00ks want people thinking its a Day After Tomorrow event. Ghey.

Actually.......more common than a major Nor-Easter in the northeast US

 

[ding]

We had this out just a couple of weeks ago. Short term memory loss? The statement was "as early as", not "no later than".

This data trend goes to zero in September of 2032. The 2 sigma span runs from 2023 to 2041. Do you think these data indicate ice is growing? By the way, the lower 2 sigma on the April trend indicate we could have a year round, ice-free Arctic before the end of the 21st century.

That's what happens in an interglacial cycle.

 

[Crick]

Are you suggesting that the increase of atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm in the last 150 years is all due to warming and that warming is due to Milankovitch cycle changes in orbital dynamics?

 

[skookerasbil]

ulric lyons | December 21, 2016 at 5:14 pm | Reply

Arctic warming is normal during solar minima, because of the increase in negative North Atlantic Oscillation.

Risk assessment: What is the plausible ‘worst scenario’ for climate change?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Freakishly warm weather hits North Pole days before Christmas

Santa's elves were likely a bit warm this week during final Christmas preparations.

Temperatures at the North Pole soared to the melting point of 32 degrees Thursday, according to data from a nearby weather buoy. That might not sound balmy, but it's some 40 to 50 degrees above average at what's typically an unimaginably cold, pitch-black point in mid-winter.

In fact, the average winter temperature at the North Pole is about 40 degrees below zero, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said.

Who to believe, Comrade Frankie boi, or Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute.

One data point?

Lol

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Are you suggesting that the increase of atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm in the last 150 years is all due to warming and that warming is due to Milankovitch cycle changes in orbital dynamics?

How much of a temperature increase is caused by the 120ppm of CO2, can you show us the lab work?

 

[Crick]

Arctic Sea Ice News at NSIDC.org

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of December 5, 2016, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years. 2016 is shown in blue, 2015 in green, 2014 in orange, 2013 in brown, and 2012 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image


Figure 2b. This plot shows air temperature difference from average in the Arctic for November 2016. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa (approximately 2,500 feet) level in the atmosphere were above the 1981 to 2010 average over the entire Arctic Ocean and, locally up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above average near the North Pole. This is in sharp contrast to northern Eurasia, where temperatures were up to 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
High-resolution image

Continuing the warm Arctic pattern seen in October, November air temperatures were far above average over the Arctic Ocean and Canada. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were above the 1981 to 2010 average over the entire Arctic Ocean and, locally up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above average near the North Pole. This is in sharp contrast to northern Eurasia, where temperatures were as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) below average (Figure 2b). Record snow events were reported in Sweden and across Siberia early in the month.

In autumn and winter, the typical cyclone path is from Iceland, across the Norwegian Sea and into the Barents Sea. This November, an unusual jet stream pattern set up, and storms instead tended to enter the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait (between Svalbard and Greenland). This set up a pattern of southerly wind in Fram Strait, the Eurasian Arctic and the Barents Sea and accounts for some of the unusual warmth over the Arctic Ocean. The wind pattern also helped push the ice northwards and helps to explain why sea ice in the Barents Sea retreated during November.

Sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Kara Seas remained unusually high, which also helped prevent ice formation. These high sea surface temperatures are a result of warm Atlantic water circulating onto the Arctic continental shelf seas.

November 2016 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly November ice extent for 1979 to 2016 shows a decline of 5.0 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Through 2016, the linear rate of decline for November is 55,400 square kilometers (21,400 square miles) per year, or 5.0 percent per decade.

Warm Arctic delays ice formation in Svalbard’s fjords

Figure 4a. This plot shows ocean temperature by depth (y axis, in decibars; a decibar is approximately one meter) along a transect (x axis, in kilometers) from the outer continental shelf to the inner parts of Isfjorden, the largest fjord in the Svalbard archipelago, for mid November 2016. (Areas in black show the undersea topography.) Atlantic Water is as warm as 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) and the surface layer still about 2 degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit). The surface layer would normally have cooled to the salinity adjusted freezing point at (-1.8 degrees Celsius, 29 degrees Fahrenheit) at this time of year, enabling sea ice formation.

Credit: University Centre in Svalbard
High-resolution image


Figure 4b. The West Spitsbergen Current consists of three branches (red arrows) that transport warm and salty Atlantic Water northward: the Return Atlantic Current (westernmost branch), the Yermak Branch and the Svalbard Branch. The Spitsbergen Trough Current (purple) transports Atlantic Water from the Svalbard Branch into the troughs indenting the shelf along Svalbard. Since 2006, changes in atmospheric circulation have resulted in more warm Atlantic Water reaching these fjords. The blue and red circles on the figure indicate locations where hydrographic data were collected.

Credit: University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS)
High-resolution image


Figure 4c. An inky-black polar night—but no cooling. The moon is the only source of light in the Arctic now, and here shines over open water in Isfjorden, the largest fjord in the Svalbard archipelago, in mid-November 2016.

Credit: Lars H. Smedsrud
High-resolution image

In the Svalbard archipelago, sea ice usually begins to form in the inner parts of the fjords in early November. This November, however, no sea ice was observed. Throughout autumn, the wind pattern transported warm and moist air to Svalbard, leading to exceptionally high air temperatures and precipitation, which fell as rain.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the fjord system were assessed by students from the University Centre in Svalbard. They noted an unusually warm ocean surface layer about 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the salinity-adjusted freezing point (Figure 4a). Coinciding with exceptionally high air temperatures over Svalbard during autumn, the water has hardly cooled at all, and it is possible that no sea ice will form this winter.

The above average ocean temperatures arose in part from changes in ocean currents that bring warm and salty Atlantic Water into the fjords. As the warm Gulf Stream moves east, it becomes the branching North Atlantic Drift. One small branch is named the West Spitsbergen Current (Figure 4b). This current flows along the continental shelf on the west coast of Svalbard and is one mechanism for transporting heat towards the fjords. Since 2006, changes in atmospheric circulation have resulted in more Atlantic water reaching these fjords, reducing sea ice production in some and stopping ice formation entirely in others.

 

[ding]

Are you suggesting that the increase of atmospheric CO2 from 280 ppm to 400 ppm in the last 150 years is all due to warming and that warming is due to Milankovitch cycle changes in orbital dynamics?

Don't be silly. I am suggesting that the rising CO2 levels are not driving temperatures.

 

[ding]

Arctic Sea Ice News at NSIDC.org

Conditions in context

Figure 2a. The graph above shows daily Arctic sea ice extent as of December 5, 2016, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years. 2016 is shown in blue, 2015 in green, 2014 in orange, 2013 in brown, and 2012 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image


Figure 2b. This plot shows air temperature difference from average in the Arctic for November 2016. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa (approximately 2,500 feet) level in the atmosphere were above the 1981 to 2010 average over the entire Arctic Ocean and, locally up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above average near the North Pole. This is in sharp contrast to northern Eurasia, where temperatures were up to 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) below average.

Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
High-resolution image

Continuing the warm Arctic pattern seen in October, November air temperatures were far above average over the Arctic Ocean and Canada. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were above the 1981 to 2010 average over the entire Arctic Ocean and, locally up to 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above average near the North Pole. This is in sharp contrast to northern Eurasia, where temperatures were as much as 4 to 8 degrees Celsius (7 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) below average (Figure 2b). Record snow events were reported in Sweden and across Siberia early in the month.

In autumn and winter, the typical cyclone path is from Iceland, across the Norwegian Sea and into the Barents Sea. This November, an unusual jet stream pattern set up, and storms instead tended to enter the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait (between Svalbard and Greenland). This set up a pattern of southerly wind in Fram Strait, the Eurasian Arctic and the Barents Sea and accounts for some of the unusual warmth over the Arctic Ocean. The wind pattern also helped push the ice northwards and helps to explain why sea ice in the Barents Sea retreated during November.

Sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Kara Seas remained unusually high, which also helped prevent ice formation. These high sea surface temperatures are a result of warm Atlantic water circulating onto the Arctic continental shelf seas.

November 2016 compared to previous years

Figure 3. Monthly November ice extent for 1979 to 2016 shows a decline of 5.0 percent per decade.

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

Through 2016, the linear rate of decline for November is 55,400 square kilometers (21,400 square miles) per year, or 5.0 percent per decade.

Warm Arctic delays ice formation in Svalbard’s fjords

Figure 4a. This plot shows ocean temperature by depth (y axis, in decibars; a decibar is approximately one meter) along a transect (x axis, in kilometers) from the outer continental shelf to the inner parts of Isfjorden, the largest fjord in the Svalbard archipelago, for mid November 2016. (Areas in black show the undersea topography.) Atlantic Water is as warm as 5 degrees Celsius (41 degrees Fahrenheit) and the surface layer still about 2 degrees Celsius (36 degrees Fahrenheit). The surface layer would normally have cooled to the salinity adjusted freezing point at (-1.8 degrees Celsius, 29 degrees Fahrenheit) at this time of year, enabling sea ice formation.

Credit: University Centre in Svalbard
High-resolution image


Figure 4b. The West Spitsbergen Current consists of three branches (red arrows) that transport warm and salty Atlantic Water northward: the Return Atlantic Current (westernmost branch), the Yermak Branch and the Svalbard Branch. The Spitsbergen Trough Current (purple) transports Atlantic Water from the Svalbard Branch into the troughs indenting the shelf along Svalbard. Since 2006, changes in atmospheric circulation have resulted in more warm Atlantic Water reaching these fjords. The blue and red circles on the figure indicate locations where hydrographic data were collected.

Credit: University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS)
High-resolution image


Figure 4c. An inky-black polar night—but no cooling. The moon is the only source of light in the Arctic now, and here shines over open water in Isfjorden, the largest fjord in the Svalbard archipelago, in mid-November 2016.

Credit: Lars H. Smedsrud
High-resolution image

In the Svalbard archipelago, sea ice usually begins to form in the inner parts of the fjords in early November. This November, however, no sea ice was observed. Throughout autumn, the wind pattern transported warm and moist air to Svalbard, leading to exceptionally high air temperatures and precipitation, which fell as rain.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the fjord system were assessed by students from the University Centre in Svalbard. They noted an unusually warm ocean surface layer about 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the salinity-adjusted freezing point (Figure 4a). Coinciding with exceptionally high air temperatures over Svalbard during autumn, the water has hardly cooled at all, and it is possible that no sea ice will form this winter.

The above average ocean temperatures arose in part from changes in ocean currents that bring warm and salty Atlantic Water into the fjords. As the warm Gulf Stream moves east, it becomes the branching North Atlantic Drift. One small branch is named the West Spitsbergen Current (Figure 4b). This current flows along the continental shelf on the west coast of Svalbard and is one mechanism for transporting heat towards the fjords. Since 2006, changes in atmospheric circulation have resulted in more Atlantic water reaching these fjords, reducing sea ice production in some and stopping ice formation entirely in others.

Northern hemisphere glaciation is more affected during interglacial periods than the southern hemisphere. Don't you remember our conversation on bipolar glaciation?

 

[Crick]

Do you really think you have the weight of evidence to reject the judgement of several thousand PhD researchers who have been studying this precise issue for several decades and who are quite certain that the rapid warming we've been undergoing is NOT a normal glacial cycle? TSI, for one thing Ding, is down to a level approaching the Maunder Minimum. If you're convinced this interglacial warming, show us the current state of the Milankovitch cycle.

Conversation on bipolar glaciation? You wouldn't be an altnernate identity for poster LaDexter would you?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Less than a week after US President Barack Obama and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau came together to block drilling in the Arctic and the Atlantic oceans, the Arctic experienced record high temperatures for the second time in as many months.

Temperatures spiked in the days leading up to Christmas, the BBC reports, with Christmas Eve reportedly experiencing temperatures 20 degrees Celsius above average. On Dec. 22, temperatures at the North Pole pushed up above the freezing point, highly unusual for this time of year, given the average winter temperature at the North Pole is around -40 degrees Fahrenheit.

View image on Twitter

Follow
Ryan Maue

✔@RyanMaue
Not quite freezing mark ... Santa's booze will stay chill up at the North Pole.
20s °F is still mild for the top of the world.

11:30 AM - 20 Dec 2016

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Before the Industrial Revolution, “a heatwave like this would have been extremely rare,” Dr. Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford's Environmental Change Institute, told the BBC. “We would expect it to occur about every 1,000 years.”

Read more: The Arctic Is Now Safe From Drilling, Thanks to Obama and Trudeau

But now, given unprecedented melting of sea ice, the Arctic has experienced record-breaking temperatures in consecutive months. In November, temperatures in the Arctic were 36 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

Likewise, last year saw a massive heatwave hit the Arctic near Christmas, with temperatures nearing the freezing point in late December.

View image on Twitter

https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/arctic-heat-wave-christmas-eve/

^ Fake News.

Obama invented the 50F surge to reaffirm his ban on Arctic drilling.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Barrow 0F
Golojannjyl -11F
Alert -15F
KoteLyn -6F

But, but but but Obama said its 50 degrees higher than normal!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Do you really think you have the weight of evidence to reject the judgement of several thousand PhD researchers who have been studying this precise issue for several decades and who are quite certain that the rapid warming we've been undergoing is NOT a normal glacial cycle? TSI, for one thing Ding, is down to a level approaching the Maunder Minimum. If you're convinced this interglacial warming, show us the current state of the Milankovitch cycle.

Conversation on bipolar glaciation? You wouldn't be an altnernate identity for poster LaDexter would you?

You confused opinions and evidence; you've yet to show any evidence

 

[polarbear]

Not only does he confuse this "several 1000 scientists" pal review with peer review, he is also confused what evidence is. He just showed how twisted his "logic" is. Check out his post in that thread:
Crick today at 7:04 am, post #55 Oh Wow

Let's see. It happened before, without humans. Therefore, humans cannot have caused it now. Is that your logic?

That`s even better than the rooster getting credit for the sun rise, but it`s right in line how the Obamanite mud flingers have been convicting their opponents.

 

[Crick]

Not only does he confuse this "several 1000 scientists" pal review with peer review

It's the same peer review that all other science undergoes.

he is also confused what evidence is.

And on what do you base that charge?

He just showed how twisted his "logic" is. Check out his post in that thread:
Crick today at 7:04 am, post #55 Oh Wow

Let's see. It happened before, without humans. Therefore, humans cannot have caused it now. Is that your logic?

That`s even better than the rooster getting credit for the sun rise, but it`s right in line how the Obamanite mud flingers have been convicting their opponents.

And what error do you believe I have made there? Our good friend Ding was attempting to imply that since warming had taken place in prior glacial/interglacial cycles without the assistance of human CO2 emissions, human CO2 emissions could not be responsible for the warming we've experienced over the last 150 years. I was asking him if that was really the logic he wished to apply. Did you have difficulty understanding what I was saying, or do you think that is valid logic which I should not have criticized?

 

[skookerasbil]

100% Of US Warming Is Due To NOAA Data Tampering | The Deplorable Climate Science Blog


100%

 

[polarbear]

Not only does he confuse this "several 1000 scientists" pal review with peer review

It's the same peer review that all other science undergoes.

he is also confused what evidence is.

And on what do you base that charge?

He just showed how twisted his "logic" is. Check out his post in that thread:
Crick today at 7:04 am, post #55 Oh Wow

Let's see. It happened before, without humans. Therefore, humans cannot have caused it now. Is that your logic?

That`s even better than the rooster getting credit for the sun rise, but it`s right in line how the Obamanite mud flingers have been convicting their opponents.

And what error do you believe I have made there? Our good friend Ding was attempting to imply that since warming had taken place in prior glacial/interglacial cycles without the assistance of human CO2 emissions, human CO2 emissions could not be responsible for the warming we've experienced over the last 150 years. I was asking him if that was really the logic he wished to apply. Did you have difficulty understanding what I was saying, or do you think that is valid logic which I should not have criticized?

It was not just an error. You asked the question and then answered it for him:"Let's see. It happened before, without humans. Therefore, humans cannot have caused it now. Is that your logic?". You were the one that made that leap to "Therefore" not him.
Since when is the onus of proof on the accused, the humans that you say must have caused it ?
The entire case of AGW rests on long range speculation using inaccurate data, in part blatantly falsified and deliberately presented in misleading format. It`s a crude political tool that has almost nothing in common with science.