China Can't Win Trade War With USA

[Camp]

I bet Brazil will be able to buy US soybeans cheap, they will be a glut on the market.

Unless somewhat expensive methods are used, normal storage methods only allow for about six months of storage before the value of the crop decreases. Nutritional value is decreased and moisture during storage both decrease value (mold). At some point the moisture can make the beans useless as a food product. Reducing moisture during storage increases the cost and value.

 

[Camp]

I bet Brazil will be able to buy US soybeans cheap, they will be a glut on the market.

Only for one season. Farmers will not plant soy beans without advance contracts.

 

[cnm]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

 

[cnm]

Only for one season. Farmers will not plant soy beans without advance contracts.

Perhaps they'd be able to replace soy with sorghum.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

 

[ABikerSailor]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

Actually, because Brazil had a bumper crop this time around, combined with the fact that Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

 

[danielpalos]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

Trade wars are not Capitalism and do not promote economic growth. Only the right wing, never gets it.

not enough socialism on a national basis, i guess.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

Actually, because Brazil had a bumper crop this time around, combined with the fact that Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

What do tariffs, or no tariffs, on imports have to do with Brazilian exports of soybeans?

 

[ABikerSailor]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

Actually, because Brazil had a bumper crop this time around, combined with the fact that Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

What do tariffs, or no tariffs, on imports have to do with Brazilian exports of soybeans?

I'll try to make this simple for you...................

Trump placed a tariff on imported steel from China. China responded to those tariffs by imposing some of their own on American goods. The current tariffs imposed by China on soybeans is about 25 percent from the reports.

Brazil is already ahead at this point, because China will buy soybeans from Brazil at regular market price, and allow them into the country with no tariffs.

American soybeans (if China buys them) are placed at normal market price PLUS 25 percent more on top of that because of the tariffs, making American soybeans more expensive.

Combine that with the fact that Brazil currently has a bumper crop, well...........if you have a lot of something, you can sell it cheaper.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

I think you underestimate the cluelessness and determination of the average American consumer to buy whatever is cheaper, from whomever is selling it cheaper. And all along this, sit on the front porch and bitch about no jobs.
No one, and I mean no one screws themselves more than Americans.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

Actually, because Brazil had a bumper crop this time around, combined with the fact that Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

Brazil has no tariffs on their soybeans, it will be cheaper to buy Brazil's soybeans over American ones.

What do tariffs, or no tariffs, on imports have to do with Brazilian exports of soybeans?

I'll try to make this simple for you...................

Trump placed a tariff on imported steel from China. China responded to those tariffs by imposing some of their own on American goods. The current tariffs imposed by China on soybeans is about 25 percent from the reports.

Brazil is already ahead at this point, because China will buy soybeans from Brazil at regular market price, and allow them into the country with no tariffs.

American soybeans (if China buys them) are placed at normal market price PLUS 25 percent more on top of that because of the tariffs, making American soybeans more expensive.

Combine that with the fact that Brazil currently has a bumper crop, well...........if you have a lot of something, you can sell it cheaper.

China responded to those tariffs by imposing some of their own on American goods.

You should have said, China hasn't imposed tariffs on Brazilian soybeans. That would have made sense.

American soybeans (if China buys them) are placed at normal market price PLUS 25 percent more on top of that because of the tariffs, making American soybeans more expensive.

Aside from the fact that they haven't imposed tariffs yet, you're right.

If China follows through on threats to impose retaliatory tariffs on U. S. soybeans, the implications for U.S. producers could be “profound,” according to a new analysis by two University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture economists.

Chinese tariffs threaten ‘profound’ loss to U.S. soybeans

 

[cnm]

What do tariffs, or no tariffs, on imports have to do with Brazilian exports of soybeans?

Chinese buyers, at risk of having to pay a 180% or so bond on US soy bean imports in case tariffs are imposed, prefer Brazilian beans, without a bond requirement.

 

[Flopper]

No worries, Trump's got this...

China Shunning U.S. Soybeans on Trade Tensions, Bunge CEO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com
Updated on May 3, 2018
The world’s biggest oilseed processor just confirmed one of the soybean market’s biggest fears: China has essentially stopped buying U.S. supplies amid the brewing trade war.​

Brazil is very happy to sell their soy beans to China.

Brazil has a bunch of extra soybeans sitting around?

Yes, Brasil has plenty of soybeans. They're the second largest Soybean producing country in the world and the crop size has increase by 40% in last 5 years.

Trump's trade war with China will be discussed in the classrooms for years as a classic illustration of why trade wars are never beneficial.

 

[protectionist]

Trade wars are not Capitalism and do not promote economic growth. Only the right wing, never gets it.

not enough socialism on a national basis, i guess.

FALSE! This is not a general economic theory issue. It is highly specific to the last 30 years of globalism that US presidents have embarked on, and Trump's correction of that. Of course it promotes economic growth for the US, and it already has, with major US GDP growth since January 2017.

 

[Flopper]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

And if Americans wants to pay more for steel and aluminum, let them.

China pays more for soybeans and America pays for more for aluminum and steal and both countries lose. The issue then becomes who loses the most, pretty dumb move by Trump.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

And if Americans wants to pay more for steel and aluminum, let them.

China pays more for soybeans and America pays for more for aluminum and steal and both countries lose. The issue then becomes who loses the most, pretty dumb move by Trump.

China pays more for soybeans

You just said they won't. What changed your mind?

 

[MarathonMike]

What President Trump is doing is using Tariffs as leverage with foreign nations who have been cheating us for decades to FORCE them to come to the table. All of this PC handwringing and 'golly gee guys' does not work.

 

[Flopper]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

And if Americans wants to pay more for steel and aluminum, let them.

China pays more for soybeans and America pays for more for aluminum and steal and both countries lose. The issue then becomes who loses the most, pretty dumb move by Trump.

China pays more for soybeans

You just said they won't. What changed your mind?

Nope, I did not say China would not pay more for Soybeans.

 

[danielpalos]

Trade wars are not Capitalism and do not promote economic growth. Only the right wing, never gets it.

not enough socialism on a national basis, i guess.

FALSE! This is not a general economic theory issue. It is highly specific to the last 30 years of globalism that US presidents have embarked on, and Trump's correction of that. Of course it promotes economic growth for the US, and it already has, with major US GDP growth since January 2017.

No, it doesn't. And, everything has to do with economics. That is why, the right wing, never gets it.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

As long as Americans can sell them........

They'll always be able to sell them at a discount.

If China wants to pay more for Brazilian beans versus American beans, we can't stop them.

And if Americans wants to pay more for steel and aluminum, let them.

China pays more for soybeans and America pays for more for aluminum and steal and both countries lose. The issue then becomes who loses the most, pretty dumb move by Trump.

China pays more for soybeans

You just said they won't. What changed your mind?

Nope, I did not say China would not pay more for Soybeans.

You said they'd buy soybeans from Brazil.
Tell me again why tariffs on US beans would make Brazilian beans more expensive.