China Can't Win Trade War With USA

[protectionist]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

 

[JoeMoma]

How do you determine the winner of a trade war?

 

[protectionist]

How do you determine the winner of a trade war?

The one whose tariffs remain in place.

There can also be various criteria for victory, depending on the circumstances. In this trade war, besides the tariffs, it will be US businesses returning to the US.

 

[irosie91]

to trump-------you are gonna have LOTS OF SOYBEANS ----the latest news is soybeans aren't really all that good for human consumption. I
am not so sure--------you can create jobs by making MISO FACTORIES.
STOP SHIPPING OUR SOYBEANS TO CHINA FOR PROCESSING

 

[TomParks]

China placed tariffs on beef and corn? HAHA

Trump wants to shut them down fast slap the tariffs on their cash cow.....electronics

 

[protectionist]

China placed tariffs on beef and corn? HAHA

Trump wants to shut them down fast slap the tariffs on their cash cow.....electronics

In upcoming days (if China doesn't back down soon), that's exactly what's going to happen next. And with plenty of other products too. When signing the steel and aluminum tariffs, Trump said .>> "This is just the beginning"

 

[TomParks]

China placed tariffs on beef and corn? HAHA

Trump wants to shut them down fast slap the tariffs on their cash cow.....electronics

In upcoming days (if China doesn't back down soon), that's exactly what's going to happen next. And with plenty of other products too. When signing the steel and aluminum tariffs, Trump said .>> "This is just the beginning"

Many people myself included have waited years for this to happen

 

[irosie91]

China placed tariffs on beef and corn? HAHA

Trump wants to shut them down fast slap the tariffs on their cash cow.....electronics

on a return to the AGRICULTURAL ISSUE------I am all for
FEEDING THE NATION (that's our nation----THE USA!!!)
Lets KEEP OUR CORN and OUR BEEF. An IN GROCERY
STORE subsidy on corn and beef products for the "poor" (ie
middle class) elderly and disabled could make a big difference
for the endangered classes ----including children. (make it
up for hindu endangered with domestic rice)

 

[Flopper]

Despite claims to the contrary, we are in the initial stages of a trade war with China. But this is something that China simply can't win. In order to win a trade war, you have to either be even with the other country, or have a trade deficit with them. The one thing you can't have is a trade surplus.

If you have a trade surplus, you don't have any leverage to use tariffs against the other country. And the bigger the trade surplus, the less leverage (or trade war power) you have. In China's case, their surplus isn't big, it is gigantic.

China exports 6 times as much $tuff to the US, as vice versa. So this is like 2 people puttting up money for something. One puts up $10, the other $60. The $60 guy has a lot more to lose.
Making things worse for China, the threat of prices rising when US businesses leave China and return to America, has diminished almost entirely. There's a long list of economic reasons or that. Some of them I remember teaching to college kids 40 years ago. Other reasons have come about since that time, buy they're all piled up right now.

So why, in such a precarious position, does China go head to head with Trump on trade ? I think it's because they're (slimly) hoping that political pressures in the US will dissuade Trump from waging this war. But Trump has put a lot of political capital into the idea of restoring an equitable trade balance, thereby bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, and making America great again. This is the cornerstone of his presidency. It's not on the table for negotiation with Democrats or anybody else.

Looking at this objectively, China can bluster, and bluff, but she doesn't have a prayer in this thing. China may register a few hits along the way, but Trump is pitching a shutout here, and I suspect the battle will be brief.

Yes, the US can win the war but not without economic damage. When the big soybean farms in Iowa, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio, Missouri, South Dakota, Arkansas, North Dakota & Kansas see millions of tons of soybean sales to China going to Australia, Trump supporters are going to be questioning just exactly how this makes America great.

China also holds another "Trump Card", North Korea. Chinese influence has been very critical to bringing NK to the table. China could just as easily turn that table upside down and make Trump look like fool for ignoring all of his advisers and meeting with Kim.

Trade wars are a lot easier to start than they are to end. One major reason is trade wars spread, not just to other products but other countries. For example, if Australia takes advantage of lower prices in china caused by excess steel and aluminium production due to the US tariffs, they may well switch there orders from the US to China thus creating pressure for the US to retaliate. The US can easily find themselves in a trade war far more extensive than just China.

The trade war with China needs end and end soon because the longer it goes on the harder it will be to stop because in a trade war government is picking industries to become winners and losers. Those industries can exert great influence on government.

 

[idb]

China has been carefully fostering relationships with the other countries that Trump has been abusing.
Watch the TPP nations deal more with Chin now that the US has stepped aside.
Likewise the EU, Britain and Central and South America.
If he scraps the NAFTA deal where does he think Canada and Mexico's trade will shift to?

 

[Syriusly]

I have just started reading a book on WW1 and I was reminded of those who predicted a quick and easy victory- and ignored those who said it would be a bloody disastrous war.

Who 'won' WW1? Certainly Germany lost- but probably the only possible winner was the U.S.- every European country was trashed, and huge amounts of their population died.

I am hoping that Trump gets some trade concessions from the Chinese and both sides will be able to withdraw and declare victory.

Because otherwise- this will be brutal on Americans. I looked at some of the products that these tariffs hit- and they will be hitting lots of American manufacturers- screwing over American manufacturers.

Lets say an American machinery manufacturer is importing water pumps from China. Now they will be 25% more expensive.

Now the American manufacturer is competing with German manufacturers who buy the water pump without the 25% tariff- and can sell their machinery for less than American manufacturers can.

No one wins a Trade War- but we know who loses- and its not the wealthy who lose Trade Wars- its the rest of us.

 

[cnm]

I'd say the US will be hurt most in loss of foreign exchange and influence.

 

[Flopper]

China has been carefully fostering relationships with the other countries that Trump has been abusing.
Watch the TPP nations deal more with Chin now that the US has stepped aside.
Likewise the EU, Britain and Central and South America.
If he scraps the NAFTA deal where does he think Canada and Mexico's trade will shift to?

The Trans Pacific Partnership now renamed to Comprehensive Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnerships has moved ahead without the US. This agreement represents 40% of world trade and is a huge loss for the US. The exit of US from the agreement opens a place for China. If China enters this agreement, the US is going to find itself a secondary nation in world trade and that has serious long term implications for the US.

 

[IsaacNewton]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

 

[Flopper]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

 

[IsaacNewton]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

The videos of pig farmers and soybean farmers in the US are already coming out, they are scared of the loss to their businesses. Thousands of job losses are on the horizon as well. And yes other countries will benefit from the lower prices for Chinese products. The only country this is going to hurt is the US. A number of Republican strategists have already made that statement. They've also stated Trump has no idea what he is doing.

 

[tycho1572]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

The videos of pig farmers and soybean farmers in the US are already coming out, they are scared of the loss to their businesses. Thousands of job losses are on the horizon as well. And yes other countries will benefit from the lower prices for Chinese products. The only country this is going to hurt is the US. A number of Republican strategists have already made that statement. They've also stated Trump has no idea what he is doing.

Trump is doing EXACTLY what we should have done several years ago. The man knows what he’s doing.

We finally have a president who has the balls to correct the problems previous presidents ignored. I’m looking forward to the benefits we’ll have when the dust settles.

 

[IsaacNewton]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

The videos of pig farmers and soybean farmers in the US are already coming out, they are scared of the loss to their businesses. Thousands of job losses are on the horizon as well. And yes other countries will benefit from the lower prices for Chinese products. The only country this is going to hurt is the US. A number of Republican strategists have already made that statement. They've also stated Trump has no idea what he is doing.

Trump is doing EXACTLY what we should have done several years ago. The man knows what he’s doing.

We finally have a president who has the balls to correct the problems previous presidents ignored. I’m looking forward to the benefits we’ll have when the dust settles.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

The videos of pig farmers and soybean farmers in the US are already coming out, they are scared of the loss to their businesses. Thousands of job losses are on the horizon as well. And yes other countries will benefit from the lower prices for Chinese products. The only country this is going to hurt is the US. A number of Republican strategists have already made that statement. They've also stated Trump has no idea what he is doing.

Last night on the nightly news, they were interviewing a guy who owns a shop that builds trailers. He said he's already feeling the effect because his steel costs for the raw materials have already jumped. He's not sure if he can remain competitive, because he's going to have to raise his prices on his trailers.

No, this trade war is a bad idea.

As far as soybeans? China also buys them from Brazil, and their last crop in Brazil was a bumper crop, so China will still be able to get soybeans. America isn't the only country to grow them.

 

[tycho1572]

Guess who isn't going to care who is 'winning' such a thing. All the American workers that are soon to be out of jobs. Thanks to your dear leader Little Lying Donald. You think there are going to be daily reports on how many Chinese are out of work this week and why? Even if someone reports that nobody here will give the first rats ass, but they will be looking at Americans, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands, that are losing their jobs and US companies that are losing money or going belly up.

It is tantamount to the government simply saying to American businesses "we are going to arbitrarily raise the price of your product 15%-25% for starters. Name a company that thinks that is ever a good idea.

Conservatives you know as much about economics as Russia knows what it's like to land on the moon and step out.

The inescapable truth is that government interference in trade inevitable targets certain industries for special consideration, raising the prices that Americans pay for lower priced/higher quality goods from abroad, thus promoting inferior American products. Since other countries will respond by taxing US exports, sales abroad will fall for those products. The end result is consumers around the world pay more and get less while governments pocket the tariffs. It's surprising that so many Republicans who have traditional favored free markets are allowing this.

Trump sees a trade war as just a negotiating tactic which shows just how little the man knows about trade. Already there are 1300 products being considered for US tariffs and the number in China is growing. This creates huge domestic political pressures to maintain tariffs once implemented. When major exporters such as the US and China start leaving tariffs, their trading partners are affected. For example Japan, Russia, North and South Korea will be more than willing to buy lower priced excess Chinese goods due to he US tariffs. This creates economic problems in dealing with US and can easy lead to expansion of the trade war.

Once tariffs are levied, removing them is not easy because it requires unilateral actions of multiple countries.

The videos of pig farmers and soybean farmers in the US are already coming out, they are scared of the loss to their businesses. Thousands of job losses are on the horizon as well. And yes other countries will benefit from the lower prices for Chinese products. The only country this is going to hurt is the US. A number of Republican strategists have already made that statement. They've also stated Trump has no idea what he is doing.

Trump is doing EXACTLY what we should have done several years ago. The man knows what he’s doing.

We finally have a president who has the balls to correct the problems previous presidents ignored. I’m looking forward to the benefits we’ll have when the dust settles.

View attachment 186478

Is that the same hat you were sporting while insisting Trump had no chance against Hillary? lol