2017 Apparent Fluke Rather Than Forecast For The Future?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by toobfreak, Jul 3, 2018.

  1. toobfreak
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    toobfreak Gold Member

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    The 2017 season was a clear and certain forecast for the grave outlook for our future, thanks to man-made climate change, except that now they've downgraded the very next year 2018 as being below average! Despite all of the supposed global warming, it turns out that the Atlantic has become COOLER than usual, forcing forecasters to downgrade the number and severity of hurricanes for this year to 3 likely CAT 3s and less than a 40% chance of a major hurricane hitting the US.

    :oops8:

    Experts now predict a 'below-average' 2018 hurricane season
     
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  2. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    They update their projections, the Arctic is now completely lice free
     
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  3. TNHarley
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    TNHarley Diamond Member

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    Well, i did stop farting last year. Maybe that helped.
    Or maybe not, IDK. Im full of shit so dont pay attention to me..
     
  4. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    More goofball alarmist prediction fAiL.

    Exactly why in 2018, nobody is caring about global warming.
     
  5. Tax Man
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    Tax Man Gold Member

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    Actually lots of people are. In the SF Bay Area there is a new set of challenges for building design that incorporates the rising level of the oceans. They are like many around the world for areas that abut the oceans.
     
  6. Fort Fun Indiana
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    Fort Fun Indiana Gold Member

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    If you don't understand that a down year (or even 5 or ten) does not refute the accepted theories, then you really need not to talk about this topic again until you read up on it.
     
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  7. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Platinum Member

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    But that's hardly lots of people...in fact, that's hardly any people if the implication here is we need action on climate change. In fact, in relative terms, its nobody!!
     
  8. Billy_Bob
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    Billy_Bob Platinum Member

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    That 3mm rise every 10 years is gonna get ya! I guess the Gore mansion, that he recently bought, which sits 4' above sea level, is going to flood real soon.....

    Funny how Gore buys something he predicts will be under water in 20 years for 19 million dollars.. Does this sound worried about sea level rise?

    Fucking Idiots.... The elitists behaviors around the world prove this is a power grab and not a real problem...
     
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  9. Fort Fun Indiana
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    Fort Fun Indiana Gold Member

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    Global sea-level rise projections range from 1.0 to 1.9m by 2100 (IPCC 2007; Jevrejeva et al. 2010; Vermeer and Rahmstrof 2009)

    Uh...hey professor....that equates to about 12.5 cm per year, or about 5 inches.

    Just shut up idiot....you know less than nothing about any of this.
     
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  10. Sunsettommy
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    Sunsettommy VIP Member Supporting Member

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    As usual your blazing ignorance is evident, here are some new published science papers you missed:

    From AGU 100,

    An Energetic Perspective on United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Droughts

    "Abstract
    The extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season concluded an extended period of quiescent continental United States tropical cyclone landfall activity that began in 2006, commonly referred to as the landfall drought. We introduce an extended climatology of U.S. tropical cyclone activity based on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and use this data set to investigate variability and trends in landfall activity. The drought years between 2006 and 2016 recorded an average value of total annual ACE over the U.S. that was less than 60% of the 1900–2017 average. Scaling this landfall activity metric by basin‐wide activity reveals a statistically significant downward trend since 1950, with the percentage of total Atlantic ACE expended over the continental U.S. at a series minimum during the recent drought period. "

    and,

    Dominant Role of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in the Recent Decadal Changes in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

    "Abstract
    Over the 1997–2014 period, the mean frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs) was markedly lower (~18%) than the period 1980–1996. Here we show that these changes were driven by an intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP tied to the changes in the Walker circulation, which arose primarily in response to the enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the North Atlantic, while the SST anomalies associated with the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the tropical Pacific and the anthropogenic forcing play only secondary roles. These results are based on observations and experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast‐oriented Low‐ocean Resolution Coupled Climate Model coupled climate model. The present study suggests a crucial role of the North Atlantic SST in causing decadal changes to WNP TC frequency. "
     
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