This article I read gave a fascinating analysis on how polling in 2016 differs from today. Some of it is circumstance and some of it is pollsters learning from their mistakes. Here are some key takeaways:
1) Pollsters got it mostly right four years ago. They had Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 percentage points. She won by 2.1 points. And they were right about the outcome in most states. But their research did not capture the full picture of voter sentiment in the upper Midwest that provided Trump with the margin of victory in the Electoral College.
2) Pollsters have been encouraged (since 2016) to increase the sample of non-college graduates, who not only tend to favor Republicans over Democrats but who are also less likely to want to participate in polls.
3) Late deciders. There were more voters in 2016 at this point in the polling process who were undecided between the two candidates. More importantly, Gary Johnson was polling at 10% in late August. By November, his approval was at 3%. 2020's third parties don't have nearly the same margins.
4) Likely voters. Pollsters are slowly but steadily moving to a model using public voter records to identify likely voters rather than a "random-digit dial" system that relies on respondents to report their voting participation patterns.
5) The polls in 2018 were much more accurate in predicting the election.
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1) Pollsters got it mostly right four years ago. They had Clinton winning the popular vote by about 3 percentage points. She won by 2.1 points. And they were right about the outcome in most states. But their research did not capture the full picture of voter sentiment in the upper Midwest that provided Trump with the margin of victory in the Electoral College.
2) Pollsters have been encouraged (since 2016) to increase the sample of non-college graduates, who not only tend to favor Republicans over Democrats but who are also less likely to want to participate in polls.
3) Late deciders. There were more voters in 2016 at this point in the polling process who were undecided between the two candidates. More importantly, Gary Johnson was polling at 10% in late August. By November, his approval was at 3%. 2020's third parties don't have nearly the same margins.
4) Likely voters. Pollsters are slowly but steadily moving to a model using public voter records to identify likely voters rather than a "random-digit dial" system that relies on respondents to report their voting participation patterns.
5) The polls in 2018 were much more accurate in predicting the election.
Polls show Trump is losing to Joe Biden. They said the same thing 4 years ago against Hillary Clinton
Polls got it wrong when they showed Hillary Clinton defeating Trump in 2016. But pollsters say surveys showing Biden over Trump are more trustworthy.
