One smart thing the GOP did was limit the number of debates. On the surface, at least, this was smart because it gives the whackjob candidacies of Cruz and Paul less official forums to announce their positions. Contrary to the belief that the Parties pick the candidtes; they actually have very little authority over them let alone control what they say. The flip side is that the urge to make a "big splash" may be too great for either of them to understand. Those who are looking to put their marker down somewhere between the hard right and the moderate right are probably the most dangerous.
Every karem to or pander toward the hard right forces the eventual nominee to move in that direction. This will, of course, hamstring him in the general election when the enevitable move back to the center has to be made.
The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner. Also, if such a force were to materialize, there would still be no need for Clinton to make the move; the voters on the hard left will be there for her in November. If we learned anything from 2012 it is that the hard right will abandon a GOP candidate that is seen as not willing to carry their water and message.
Obama fatigue and the ocassional flub (if they are ocassional) and tactical mis-step of the Clinton campaign will play a role as well but there shouldn't be enough of them to swing the election.
She isn't a shoo-in for the Presidency; there is still a long way to go. But it would be hard to imagine a better set-up for Secretary Clinton than what has happened in the last few weeks with Cruz, Paul and Rubio entering the race
Exit polls, 2012:
Exit polls 2012 How the vote has shifted - The Washington Post
The electorate on that day:
Female: 53% in 2012 and 2008, 54% in 2004, 52% in 2000 and 1996, 53% in 1992, 52% in 1988, 53% in 1984, 49% in 1980 and 1976,
Male: 47% in 2012 and 2008, 46% in 2004, 48% in 2000 and 1996, 47% in 1992, 48% in 1988, 47% in 1984, 51% in 1980 and 1976,
The female vote has been the majority of the electorate since 1984. If Hillary is the nominee, this number is sure to not go under 53% and is likely to jump to 55%.
Age:
18-29: 19% in 2012, 18% in 2008
30-44: 27% in 2012, 29% in 2008
45-64: 38% in 2012, 37% in 2008
65 and over: 16% in 2012, unchanged over 2008
Race:
White: 72% in 2012, 74% in 2008,
77% in 2004,
81% in 2000,
83% in 1996,
87% in 1992,
85% in 1988,
86% in 1984, 88% in 1980,
89% in 1976.
In 36 years, from 1976 to 2012, the White Vote percentage of the overall electorate went tom 89% to 72%, a -17% decline over 9 cycles. 17/9= 1.9.
The logical trend is that White voters will be around 70% of the electorate, maybe even 69%, in 2016.
Black: 13% in 2012, unchanged from 2008, 11% in 2004, 10% in 2000, 10% in 1996, 8% in 1992, 10% in 1988, 1984, 1980, 8% in 1976.
In 36 years, the black vote has risen from 8% over the overall electorate to 13% of the electorate. One of the great myths propagated about 2012 is that the black vote exploded in 2012, but statistically, it was exactly the same % of the overall population as in 2008. It is important to note that in 5 of those 10 cycles, the black vote was at 10%. The right is hoping that the black vote will recede to 10% of the electorate in 2016, but if the 2013 VA gubernatorial and 2014 VA senatorial races are our guide (VA was THE bellwether in 2012), then this is unlikely.
Latino: 10% in 2012, 9% in 2008, 8% in 2004, 7% in 2000, 5% in 1996, 2% in 1992, 3% in 1998 and 1994, 2% in 1980, 1% in 1976.
In 36 years, from 1976 to 2012, the Latino vote has jumped by a factor of 10.
Asian: 3% in 2012, 2% in 2008, 2004 and 2000, 1% in 1996 and 1992. The Asian vote was not measured before 1992.
So, in 20 years, from 1992 to 2012, the Asian vote has tripled.
Very possible voter make-up, 2016:
White: 70%
Black: 12%
Latino:12%
Asian: 4%
other: 2%
Male: 45%
Female: 55%
Hillary +24 in the Female vote = 62% of 55% = 34% of the total electorate.
With a pretty much guaranteed 90% of the black vote (half of which is also female, don't forget), at least 70% of the Latino vote, 80% of the Asian vote, well over 90% of the gay vote, probably 75% to 80% of the Jewish vote, over 90% of the muslim vote and atheist vote, Demographics say that Hillary, just as I have been predicting for 12 months straight without changing my tune, is heading for
57% of the NPV and will come close to or go over 400 EV.
Or, look it is this way:
White vote: 41% of 70% = 28.7%
Black vote: 90% of 12% = 10.8%
Latino vote: 75% of 12% = 9%
Asian vote: 80% of 4% = 3%
other: 95% of 2% = 1.9%
Total: 53.4%
But if Hillary takes the female vote by +25, she won't stay at Obama's 41% statistic, she will come up to at least 46% of the White vote:
White vote: 46% of 70% = 32.2%
Black vote: 90% of 12% = 10.8%
Latino vote: 75% of 12% = 9%
Asian vote: 80% of 4% = 3%
other: 95% of 2% = 1.9%
Total: 56.9%
(57%)
The polling, ACROSS THE BOARD,is showing Hillary at at least +20% margin in the female vote in national polling, upwards of +36 to +40 in blue states, and +25 and above in critical battlegrounds.
57%.
