Why Hillary Will Win (probably)

[AvgGuyIA]

In the title you show doubt. In the OP you show doubt.
Admit or not you see a possible defeat. After only what? 12 hours after she announced?

No kidding..the election is over a year and a half away. But look at the battlefield.

Cruz & Paul have no chance of winning the election. Fact.
That Curz and Paul are in the primaries forces those to their left to move right. Fact.
Once the GOP nomination is settled, whomever wins will have to move back to the middle to attract independents. Fact.
It would be much easier to move back to the middle if they never had to leave it thus fostering consistency and confidence in supporters and voters. Fact.
Hillary will not have to move one iota to win the nomination. Fact.
If the hard right does not get their guy, they stay home as we saw in 2012. Fact.
The hard left will not stay home regardless of who wins the DNC nomination. Fact.

Can Hillary sabotage her campaign? Sure. Ask 47% Mitt about that or the boob who picked Palin for VP... But she won't make the same tactical mistakes she made in 08. For one thing, she can'. For a second thing, the fences have mended between the moderates and Clinton since she came on board for Obama as SoS.

And the "hard" left was where in 2014? Drugging?Boozing? What?

Right where the Right was in 1930, 1934, 1954, 1958, 1972.....

learn from electoral history, then you won't make such a fool out of yourself...

Oh but I do look at history. Worst off year defeat in history. The ONLY credit downgrade in history and democrats have TWO of those.

I look at Carters ass kissing history and post Nixon history. I also look at world history and the ENTIRE globe minus Greece moving RIGHT.

And I look at Hillary's history. I don't think there is ANYBODY in office or trying for office that has MORE neg rep then she does. The die hard Leech-o-tards support her. About 30% but beyond that? Division and a crumbling base. Face FACTS, she IS a LIAR.

Obama is off in panama apologizing for America again to Castro and the world. Clinton was his Secretary of State and likely holds that opinion since she didn't denounce him for his 1st apology tour.

 

[AvgGuyIA]

Yeah, pretty much, but it could sure as hell happen.

The GOP is so divided now, though. I don't see how it presents a united front in 2016. They fight each other with more intensity than they fight the Democrats.

.

We are united in wanting democrats out of power.

 

[BasicHumanUnit]

Anyone noticed the lack of valid reasons, listed by those ringing the Clinton bell, for supporting her?

 

[MisterBeale]

One smart thing the GOP did was limit the number of debates. On the surface, at least, this was smart because it gives the whackjob candidacies of Cruz and Paul less official forums to announce their positions. Contrary to the belief that the Parties pick the candidtes; they actually have very little authority over them let alone control what they say. The flip side is that the urge to make a "big splash" may be too great for either of them to understand. Those who are looking to put their marker down somewhere between the hard right and the moderate right are probably the most dangerous.

Every karem to or pander toward the hard right forces the eventual nominee to move in that direction. This will, of course, hamstring him in the general election when the enevitable move back to the center has to be made.

The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner. Also, if such a force were to materialize, there would still be no need for Clinton to make the move; the voters on the hard left will be there for her in November. If we learned anything from 2012 it is that the hard right will abandon a GOP candidate that is seen as not willing to carry their water and message.

Obama fatigue and the ocassional flub (if they are ocassional) and tactical mis-step of the Clinton campaign will play a role as well but there shouldn't be enough of them to swing the election.

She isn't a shoo-in for the Presidency; there is still a long way to go. But it would be hard to imagine a better set-up for Secretary Clinton than what has happened in the last few weeks with Cruz, Paul and Rubio entering the race

Were you asleep during the midterms?

No.

What happened was the time-honored refudiation of a 6th year President's party....Reagan lost just as many seats (give or take a few) that Obama lost and his positives were quite high. Look it up if you don't believe me.

You also had an unusually large number of blue Senate seats up for election relative to red seats. Such will not be the case in 2016.

The 2016 election will have much more interest and deliver the results I predict:

HRC wins Presidency
Dems win Senate
GOP keeps House

Wow. Nice try. You really must want this bad to deny reality. All you need to do is ask around a little. And I do mean OUTSIDE your little social circle. There just isn't the stomach for Hillary. The only way it is going to happen is if the media is bought off and they have no other option but to constantly beat the drum of Hillary over and over again. It is well known that Americans can't think for themselves. If this is what the media does, then perhaps you are right. But as it stands RIGHT NOW, if the election were tomorrow, NOT A SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL.

SNL, a traditionally left leaning show, is a good bell weather. Just look at the comments of this video. I had to go down probably about THIRTY COMMENTS before I could even find the first Hillary supporter. Now that is pretty bad. Oh sure, there was support for the assorted odd democrat here and there for this candidate or that one, but certainly not for Hillary. This is a very bad sign. Your scenario is wistful dreaming Ms. Corn.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Again, if the Rs can't beat Hillary they need to hang it up. She is the ultimate poster child of what is wrong with america. She has plenty of red meat and low hanging fruit just waiting for someone to tee off on.

You guys are making the same mistake you made in 2008 and 2012. You assume because you hate her with a passion that makes you blind, everyone else does, too.

Bingo.

And seeing the utter clowns vying for the GOP nod, even if some voters don't like her (and millions upon millions DO like her), they are going to vote for her.

I had Democratic friends who were furious at me in 2004 as I kept writing that I thought that Pres. Bush (R) was going to be re-elected. Two of them refused to speak with me for a number of years afterward. But the numbers, already back in 2003, were showing a good, solid tenacity for the President where he needed to be competitive and he campaigned well in the 8 battlegrounds that counted. He got Kerry down to +7 in New Jersey, a core Democratic state. He got him down to just +9 in both California and Hawaii, core Democratic states. He scored +25 or more wins in a heap of RED states, margins that rival Reagan from 1980 and 1984. And in Ohio, the aggregate never had him behind, not once. It was close, but as John King said in 2012, referring to vanquished GOP nominee Romnee, "a close 2nd is still 2nd".

And now, this time around, I am seeing a sea of statistical evidence that Hillary is doing far better than a Democrat is ever expected to do. She is WAY ahead in Ohio, much farther ahead than either Obama or Bill Clinton ever were. Excluding Jeb, she is solidly ahead in Florida, she is even more ahead in Virginia and moderately ahead in Pennsylvania. In essence, were the election held today, she would sweep the quadrifecta, and therefore, the election.

She is batting the GOP to a complete draw in North Carolina and Colorado, but doing less well in Colorado than Obama did. CO is her achilles heel. Were the electorate actually "snapping back" to the pre-2008 days, then both North Carolina and Virginia, also Colorado, should actually be off the table for the DEMS. Instead, VA is well on it's way to being cemented into the BLUE WALL and the GOP must now fight tooth and nail to retain NC. Together, those two mid-atlantic states are worth 28 EV, essentially, a second Florida (29 EV), if you will.

She has the GOP down to low single digit-margins in GA (or she is plain out winning there), AR, LA, TN, TX, AZ, AK and KS. Yes, KS. I bet that the Dakotas will also both come into play in 2016, not to mention NE-02, ala 2008.

There is not one single state from the BLUE WALL that shows even the slightest of weakness for Hillary. Scott Walker cannot get closer than from 8 points behind in Wisconsin, often considered the lowest hanging fruit on the Democratic tree.

Nationally, on aggregate, when you average the polls, she is between +8 and +15 over GOP contenders.

And these are the numbers BEFORE her announcement and after the so-called Email-scandal that is no scandal.

It's been a long, long time since the data has pointed to one candidate literally sweeping the field, as we are seeing with Clinton and have been seeing for the last two years, without fail.

Can she lose? Yes, she can, if she screws up really badly. But all see needs is the BLUE WALL +3 more states, maybe, and she is easily over the top.Or, just the BLUE WALL + FL, that would do it, too.

The climb for any GOP candidate is decidedly steeper.

Candycorn's arguments are very solid on this thread.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Anyone noticed the lack of valid reasons, listed by those ringing the Clinton bell, for supporting her?

There are tons of them, I am simply tired of having to explain them to little children who are going to stick their fingers in their ears, anyway.

No, go run off and play with your nice, red tonka-toys.

 

[MisterBeale]

One smart thing the GOP did was limit the number of debates. On the surface, at least, this was smart because it gives the whackjob candidacies of Cruz and Paul less official forums to announce their positions. Contrary to the belief that the Parties pick the candidtes; they actually have very little authority over them let alone control what they say. The flip side is that the urge to make a "big splash" may be too great for either of them to understand. Those who are looking to put their marker down somewhere between the hard right and the moderate right are probably the most dangerous.

Every karem to or pander toward the hard right forces the eventual nominee to move in that direction. This will, of course, hamstring him in the general election when the enevitable move back to the center has to be made.

The reason Hillary will win is because no such force sits to her left which would force her to react in such an irrational manner. Also, if such a force were to materialize, there would still be no need for Clinton to make the move; the voters on the hard left will be there for her in November. If we learned anything from 2012 it is that the hard right will abandon a GOP candidate that is seen as not willing to carry their water and message.

Obama fatigue and the ocassional flub (if they are ocassional) and tactical mis-step of the Clinton campaign will play a role as well but there shouldn't be enough of them to swing the election.

She isn't a shoo-in for the Presidency; there is still a long way to go. But it would be hard to imagine a better set-up for Secretary Clinton than what has happened in the last few weeks with Cruz, Paul and Rubio entering the race

Please list her accomplishments. I'll start.

1. Logged many miles of flight. (I have to admit, I got that from hillary herself.)
2.

I can't tell you how many times I have seen postings like this, and they disgust me.

During her tenure, she has done several AWFUL THINGS. So much so, she had to go. She was becoming an embarrassment to the Obama administration and if continued on, would probably have screwed up her chances to run for president.

Let's not forget, she left the Sec. of State position so that Obama would not have to fire her. She just wasn't getting anything done.

 

[Edgetho]

If she does not permanently distance herself from her Wall Street buddies she have to win without my vote.

I've heard ducks fart underwater before

"If" my ass. You're looking for an excuse to vote for her. Period.

That ***** is going to take every possible political stance there is and brain dead dimocraps are going to believe the one that they personally want to believe.

She may 'distance' herself from Wall Street just long enough to satisfy idiots like you and then, 2 Months later, she'll be back drinking $3,000 a bottle Champagne with them and strangely, the DISGUSTING FILTH in the Lame Stream Media won't notice.

Funny how that works

But the important thing is, it will give you the opportunity to rationalize your vote for her.

That's what you want. You want to be able to justify your vote.

People of low character are dimocraps. Period.

 

[Edgetho]

Wow. Nice try. You really must want this bad to deny reality. All you need to do is ask around a little. And I do mean OUTSIDE your little social circle. There just isn't the stomach for Hillary. The only way it is going to happen is if the media is bought off and they have no other option but to constantly beat the drum of Hillary over and over again. It is well known that Americans can't think for themselves. If this is what the media does, then perhaps you are right. But as it stands RIGHT NOW, if the election were tomorrow, NOT A SNOWBALLS CHANCE IN HELL.

SNL, a traditionally left leaning show, is a good bell weather. Just look at the comments of this video. I had to go down probably about THIRTY COMMENTS before I could even find the first Hillary supporter. Now that is pretty bad. Oh sure, there was support for the assorted odd democrat here and there for this candidate or that one, but certainly not for Hillary. This is a very bad sign. Your scenario is wistful dreaming Ms. Corn.

There are several things in this life you can count on -- Taxes, death, snow in Alaska and the DISGUSTING FILTH in the LSM beating the drum 24/7/365 until the 2016 election for the scumbag dimocrap candidate.

the DISGUSTING FILTH in the LSM is just simply the propaganda arm of the DNC. That simple.

Even when they make fun of a dimocrap scumbag, they do it such a manner that they make the dimocrap look more 'bumbling' than they do 'evil' (which they are)

When they take a shot at a Republican, it is with a vitriol, anger, hatred and a viciousness NEVER used on dimocraps.

 

[rightwinger]

Hillary will win because she gets to run against a Republican and Republicans can't win swing states

 

[occupied]

If she does not permanently distance herself from her Wall Street buddies she have to win without my vote.

I've heard ducks fart underwater before

"If" my ass. You're looking for an excuse to vote for her. Period.

That ***** is going to take every possible political stance there is and brain dead dimocraps are going to believe the one that they personally want to believe.

She may 'distance' herself from Wall Street just long enough to satisfy idiots like you and then, 2 Months later, she'll be back drinking $3,000 a bottle Champagne with them and strangely, the DISGUSTING FILTH in the Lame Stream Media won't notice.

Funny how that works

But the important thing is, it will give you the opportunity to rationalize your vote for her.

That's what you want. You want to be able to justify your vote.

People of low character are dimocraps. Period.

Good morning to you too Mr. Sunshine, I have been consistent in my low opinion of Hillary Clinton since the 2008 primaries, not going to vote for her, if you do not believe it then it makes no difference to me. The only thing you are consistent on is being a hateful jackass.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Again, if the Rs can't beat Hillary they need to hang it up. She is the ultimate poster child of what is wrong with america. She has plenty of red meat and low hanging fruit just waiting for someone to tee off on.

You guys are making the same mistake you made in 2008 and 2012. You assume because you hate her with a passion that makes you blind, everyone else does, too.

There is no reason to use hate or emotion to defeat someone with this much baggage and the poster child of everything wrong with america. She has enough dirty laundry on her record to keep someone busy for years.

 

[rightwinger]

If Hillary runs against Jeb she will win around 320 EV and will have to fight it out in some of the swing states

If she runs against Walker she will win around 350 EV

Any other Republican and she will win 400+ EV

 

[Edgetho]

Good morning to you too Mr. Sunshine, I have been consistent in my low opinion of Hillary Clinton since the 2008 primaries, not going to vote for her, if you do not believe it then it makes no difference to me. The only thing you are consistent on is being a hateful jackass.

I hated Mao. I hated Che. I hated Stalin. I hated Pol Pot.

And I hate dimocrap scum

 

[occupied]

Good morning to you too Mr. Sunshine, I have been consistent in my low opinion of Hillary Clinton since the 2008 primaries, not going to vote for her, if you do not believe it then it makes no difference to me. The only thing you are consistent on is being a hateful jackass.

I hated Mao. I hated Che. I hated Stalin. I hated Pol Pot.

And I hate dimocrap scum

And you are retarded for thinking it's all the same thing.

 

[hortysir]

18-19 months prior to 2008 elections, Hillary Clinton already won then too.

I can't wait to see what other candidates emerge so I can watch the Dembulbs around here jump from bandwagon to bandwagon

 

[hortysir]

If Hillary runs against Jeb she will win around 320 EV and will have to fight it out in some of the swing states

If she runs against Walker she will win around 350 EV

Any other Republican and she will win 400+ EV

Shouldn't she win the nomination first, or should we just submit and crown her now?

 

[Wyatt earp]

If Hillary runs against Jeb she will win around 320 EV and will have to fight it out in some of the swing states

If she runs against Walker she will win around 350 EV

Any other Republican and she will win 400+ EV

the low information voter will stay away, they Don't care, it will be like 2000

 

[hortysir]

If Hillary runs against Jeb she will win around 320 EV and will have to fight it out in some of the swing states

If she runs against Walker she will win around 350 EV

Any other Republican and she will win 400+ EV

the low information voter will stay away, they Don't care, it will be like 2000

Unlike 08 & 12 where the low information voter dominated the polls

 

[Siete]

If Hillary runs against Jeb she will win around 320 EV and will have to fight it out in some of the swing states

If she runs against Walker she will win around 350 EV

Any other Republican and she will win 400+ EV

the low information voter will stay away, they Don't care, it will be like 2000

Unlike 08 & 12 where the low information voter dominated the polls

how can Clinton already be the winner? RW's have already declared themselves winners.