"But it wasnÂ’t until 2007 that Harvard political scientist Daniel Hopkins confirmed the existence of the effect. He studied elections between 1989 and 2006 that pitted black and white Senate candidates against each other. He found that the black candidates polled better than their final share of the vote in contests with white candidates in elections through 1996. But the effect then vanished, for reasons that he said were unclear."
Unclear only to those who don't know anthropology or sociology. People will behave and say things uncommon to their true leanings when in a social setting. This is particularly true when the "tribe" seems to be leaning towards a certain new leader that not all approve of but that the person perceives they may be socially punished for if they are honest about how they will vote.
You see it all the time in playground politics. It's true with adults too. You know, when a bully it pushing people around and people fall in line while the bully is looking [or asking on a questionaire where other people are around]. Only later when the bully is defeated, those same people admit "I never liked him anyway"...
If I were a strategist, I'd just look at things like Chic Fil A and the Boycott A&E Duck Dynasty thing. Over a million likes of that DD Facebook boycott A&E page in like a day or something, right? There's the real numbers.
Look
California is the fruit-loopiest state in the Union hands down. There's more weirdos there per square mile than crawfish in a swamp. And gay marriage still failed there. It would again if put to another initiative vote. That's why they want to think they're forcing Prop 8 to not be legal and binding there. They know if the people choose again it will be the same thing the third time around.
That pretty much says it all.