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The COVID-19 pandemic borrowing will make SS & Medicare less solvent.
Which party will raise taxes to save SS & Medicare for future generations?
The Future of America’s Entitlements: What You Need to Know About the Medicare and Social Security Trustees Reports - AAF
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees issued their annual reports detailing the financial state of America’s two largest entitlement programs.www.americanactionforum.org
- Medicare’s Annual Cash Shortfall in 2019 was $396 billion;
- Payroll taxes would have to increase more than 15 percent to pay for Medicare Part A in 2019; and
- Over the next 75 years, Social Security will owe $16.8 trillion more than it is projected to take in.
You are implying that it is even possible to "pay for it".
With or without Covid-19, with or without the economic down turn, whether Democrats or Republicans are in office....
You can't pay for socialism. It never works. Never. Not one time in all human history, has taking from group A, to pay for group B, worked.
If Social Security and Medicare were possible to have working, then we would never have the concept of a Ponzi scheme, because both of those are ponzi schemes.
In the end, my guess is that health care in the US will end up run by the government, and thus will end up declining in quality to meet the ability of the government to pay.
Social Security will equally need to be cut to the ability of the government to pay. The way they will do this, is by cutting the retirement age, meaning raise the retirement age to 75 or something.
Now there are a few alternatives that the nation could go down, that will be absolutely devastating.
One is a drastic increase in taxes, which will cause capital flight and economic decline. That would be much like what we saw in Greece.
The other option is that government just keeps spending, until they destroy themselves. Again, much like Greece.
Given the recent rise of incompetence, like AOC who is exceedingly popular, even after saying things as utterly mindless as she's going to "spend" the money from a tax cut on schools and health care.....
I see the Greece result as more and more a real possibility.
There is no way to "pay" for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. These programs, were never, and are not, sustainable. We have only been able to out-grow our spending thus far, but that can't continue forever.
You want 75 year-old truck drivers on the road? You want 75 year-old roofers working on your house? You want a 75 year-old nurse assisting your doctor?
You really have not thought this through, have you?
What I want, doesn't matter. What you want, doesn't matter either.
Facts don't care what either of us think. Math doesn't care what we want.
Do you want to be this guy in Greece, with no money, living in poverty, because the government simply does not have any money?
Because that's our future if we keep pushing Social Security. There is zero difference between how Social Security works, and how the Greek Pension system worked.
If you keep doing the same thing, you'll get the same result.
You talk about math and don't provide any. Here are several real SS "fixes". Show me where they are wrong.
https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/05/21/how-warren-buffett-thinks-we-should-fix-social-sec.aspx
https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2014/11/14/5-potential-social-security-fixes
https://www.aarp.org/work/social-security/info-05-2012/future-of-social-security-proposals.html
So let's use your links for example.
Finally, gradually raising the full retirement age to 68 would take care of 16% of the funding gap.
Right, I said openly that we would have to raise the retirement age.
Raising the Social Security payroll tax rate from 6.2% to 7.2% over a 20-year period would generate 52% of the shortfall.
Again, Germany has an 18% pension tax, and they are saying they need to increase it. So if 18% now in Germany isn't enough, why do you think 7.2% would be enough?
Eliminating the taxable earnings cap over a 10-year period would fix 74% of the long-term financing gap all by itself.
No, I don't think so. All you have to do is look at the 1970s. In the 1970s, we have a 70% rate on the top marginal income tax rates.
Did we have endless amounts of money for everything we wanted? Or did we have deficits? We had deficits. So if 70% tax rates didn't fix anything the 1970s, would would this fix social security?
Again.... if any of those proposals could work.... why hasn't any country anywhere in the world today, done all those things and had it work?
All those things can help.... Sure you delay the crash with all those things. Certainly. But it does not fix anything. We know that because as I said, Germany has a much higher pension tax, and they still need to raise the tax rate. Germany has a lower pension payout, and they still need more taxes.
You can't show me a single country, that doesn't have a pension crisis, unless they don't have a pension system.
For example, Singapore does not have a pension crisis. And the reason why is very simple. Singapore has a private system. People pay into a private account, that is invested in their own assets, that they own in their private account.
It's impossible to have a crisis, because people get out of their retirement account, what they paid into their retirement account.
That's also pretty good, because the government can't take it away by arbitrarily increasing the retirement age, thus denying you the money you paid into retirement.
Now I will say that Means-testing could in theory work.
But you'll never get that passed. Guaranteed. Because the moment you pass means testing, you blow apart the entire mythology that Social Security is a retirement system you pay-in and pay-out of.
The moment you tell people "Yes you paid into Social Security your entire life, but you have too much wealth, so you don't get anything from it".... you will have massive revolt across the country. No politician of either party will survive trying to implement means testing.
Ok, so I think we agree that SS is fixable and is NOT a ponzi scheme.
1. We agree on raising the full retirement age 1-year from 67 to 68 is not a big deal and gets 16% of the problem.
2. Raising the SS tax rate from 6.2% to 7.2% gets 52% of the shortfall, so that's 68% of the needed fix, no biggie.
3. Eliminate the earnings cap over 10-years gains 74%, so we're at 142% of the fix. Or, just exclude the top 1% or 2% of earners like Bloomberg & Trump. QED SS Fixed.
The actuaries proved BY MATH that SS is fixable without much controversy or pain, so why don't the DC coxuckers fix it already!!