Where are all the hurricanes?

Deplorable Yankee

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Feb 7, 2019
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Editor’s Note: As numerous headlines and top stories in various corporate media outlets attested at the time, in May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin would be a busy one with above-normal numbers of hurricanes, possibly quite strong. As noted in a couple of Climate Realism posts recently, that prediction has not panned out. As I write this on August 30, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Basin since the official beginning of hurricane season on June 1. While not completely unprecedented, this is quite rare. Indeed, even the number of tropical storms and the length of time they were organized as named storms is well below average, this year.

Things may change, and they probably will. More tropical storms and even some hurricanes will almost undoubtedly form in the waning months of hurricane season 2022, but based on what we have seen thus far, it is highly likely NOAA’s ominous warning of more, more powerful storms in 2022 will fail to materialize—a fact for which we can all be thankful.

Heartland Senior Fellow and award-winning meteorologist Anthony Watts recently discussed the unusual—confounding to NOAA—hurricane season so far, how most mainstream media outlets are trying to downplay the good news about hurricanes with a “just watch out; its coming and its bad” spin, and what it says about predictions of climate disaster.
Climate Change Weekly presents Watts’ article, in full, below.

‘Hurricane Season Slowest Start in 30 Years’—Media Spins ‘Damage Control’ Stories



shut up and eat your bugs !
 
Living on the Alabama gulf coast, I can tell ya that things can change in a matter of days and it only takes ONE storm in the right spot to just ruin a person's year :( We had a very minimal hurricane in 2000, named Sally. The storm was a CAT1 and under traditional circumstances, it should have caused very little damage. It did a HUGE amount of damage though. The storm moved very slowly and we had 3+ days of constant rain prior to the wind field coming ashore. We lost thousands of trees because the ground was so saturated the roots didn't hold.

We've had fewer than 5 consecutive days without rain since May. The ground is as saturated as I've ever seen it and Lord help us if a hurricane hits this season.
 
snip


Editor’s Note: As numerous headlines and top stories in various corporate media outlets attested at the time, in May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin would be a busy one with above-normal numbers of hurricanes, possibly quite strong. As noted in a couple of Climate Realism posts recently, that prediction has not panned out. As I write this on August 30, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Basin since the official beginning of hurricane season on June 1. While not completely unprecedented, this is quite rare. Indeed, even the number of tropical storms and the length of time they were organized as named storms is well below average, this year.

Things may change, and they probably will. More tropical storms and even some hurricanes will almost undoubtedly form in the waning months of hurricane season 2022, but based on what we have seen thus far, it is highly likely NOAA’s ominous warning of more, more powerful storms in 2022 will fail to materialize—a fact for which we can all be thankful.

Heartland Senior Fellow and award-winning meteorologist Anthony Watts recently discussed the unusual—confounding to NOAA—hurricane season so far, how most mainstream media outlets are trying to downplay the good news about hurricanes with a “just watch out; its coming and its bad” spin, and what it says about predictions of climate disaster. Climate Change Weekly presents Watts’ article, in full, below.

‘Hurricane Season Slowest Start in 30 Years’—Media Spins ‘Damage Control’ Stories



shut up and eat your bugs !
i pray that the hurricanes and tropical storms stay away from land.
 
snip


Editor’s Note: As numerous headlines and top stories in various corporate media outlets attested at the time, in May the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted the 2022 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin would be a busy one with above-normal numbers of hurricanes, possibly quite strong. As noted in a couple of Climate Realism posts recently, that prediction has not panned out. As I write this on August 30, not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Basin since the official beginning of hurricane season on June 1. While not completely unprecedented, this is quite rare. Indeed, even the number of tropical storms and the length of time they were organized as named storms is well below average, this year.

Things may change, and they probably will. More tropical storms and even some hurricanes will almost undoubtedly form in the waning months of hurricane season 2022, but based on what we have seen thus far, it is highly likely NOAA’s ominous warning of more, more powerful storms in 2022 will fail to materialize—a fact for which we can all be thankful.

Heartland Senior Fellow and award-winning meteorologist Anthony Watts recently discussed the unusual—confounding to NOAA—hurricane season so far, how most mainstream media outlets are trying to downplay the good news about hurricanes with a “just watch out; its coming and its bad” spin, and what it says about predictions of climate disaster. Climate Change Weekly presents Watts’ article, in full, below.

‘Hurricane Season Slowest Start in 30 Years’—Media Spins ‘Damage Control’ Stories



shut up and eat your bugs !

You're welcome.
 
It's September and there are still two more months. Hurricane season tends to pick up later in the year. About now and pushing.

I don't know what happened with Danielle. Hurricane Kay is in the pacific. There are concerns that Tropical Storm Earl is going to become a hurricane.

 
Thanx for the weather update ... hurricane experts still agree, there's not enough data to make claims about frequency or intensity averages ... and this year's hurricane forecast as a range of values ...

"NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season." -- NOAA -- May 24th, 2022 ...

Well ... they did say a 10% chance for a below-normal season ...
 
Thanx for the weather update ... hurricane experts still agree, there's not enough data to make claims about frequency or intensity averages ... and this year's hurricane forecast as a range of values ...

"NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season." -- NOAA -- May 24th, 2022 ...

Well ... they did say a 10% chance for a below-normal season ...
cover every scenario you know.
 
Thanx for the weather update ... hurricane experts still agree, there's not enough data to make claims about frequency or intensity averages ... and this year's hurricane forecast as a range of values ...

"NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season." -- NOAA -- May 24th, 2022 ...

Well ... they did say a 10% chance for a below-normal season ...
This scientist is predicting a major solar storm on Sept 23 which will trigger hurricanes. I guess will find out soon if he’s right.
https://www.researchgate.net/public..._2022_likely_coincides_with_Tropical_Cyclones
 
Out at sea. Then heading north. That often means into colder waters where hurricanes feed. But now it appears that turning north is leading to warm waters where they grow in strength endangering some shipping lanes.

This hurricane season is getting off to a very slow start. I am hoping it does out early, too.
 
Out at sea. Then heading north. That often means into colder waters where hurricanes feed. But now it appears that turning north is leading to warm waters where they grow in strength endangering some shipping lanes.

This hurricane season is getting off to a very slow start. I am hoping it does out early, too.

Over the past 60 years ... the Age of Satellites ... there's been a number of years with only 3 or 4 hurricanes in the North Atlantic ... the least number was 2 in 2013 ... during a period of dramatic and intense global warming ...

We've had one so far ... Hurricane Bonnie ... a better metric is the ACE (Accumulated Cyclonic Energy) value, but we won't know that until the end of the season ...
 
There are TWO weak ones out there right now and perhaps a third forming, but none near 'us.'
Wind currents and shearing have been very kind. They turned North early.
Unexpectedly slow season so far.

This is the kind of Info (or any info) you won't get from Meister
`

1662512466708.png
 
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Damn ... Hurricane Kay is set to dump on Southern California ... where it's 115ÂşF today is going underwater this weekend ...

She's not predicted to make landfall anywhere, just spin out southeast of San Diego ... thus the two inches of precipitble water vapor this weekend ... and this is a massive catastrophe for the San Diego area, anything over 1/4 inch in any given week shuts everything down ... the people run frightened into home and businesses ... dogs and coyotes bay at the raindrops ... it's ugly ... you know, California style ...
 
Damn ... Hurricane Kay is set to dump on Southern California ... where it's 115ÂşF today is going underwater this weekend ...

She's not predicted to make landfall anywhere, just spin out southeast of San Diego ... thus the two inches of precipitble water vapor this weekend ... and this is a massive catastrophe for the San Diego area, anything over 1/4 inch in any given week shuts everything down ... the people run frightened into home and businesses ... dogs and coyotes bay at the raindrops ... it's ugly ... you know, California style ...
So far:

1662516429180.png


`
 

Well ... as of a month ago ... but close enough ...

Generally speaking ... the number and intensities of tropical cyclones per year world-wide tend to be fairly constant ... enough though these numbers in individual hurricane basins may vary wildly ... just nuts looking at the 60 year data set for the North Atlantic ... up and down enough to make one sea sick on the carpet ... bad doggo ...

Notice Storm #4 ... Hurricane Bonnie ... that's an Atlantic Basin name ... she crossed Central America relatively intact and spun up again in the Eastern Pacific ... pretty cool ... except for Central Americans I suppose ...
 
Well ... as of a month ago ... but close enough ...

Generally speaking ... the number and intensities of tropical cyclones per year world-wide tend to be fairly constant ... enough though these numbers in individual hurricane basins may vary wildly ... just nuts looking at the 60 year data set for the North Atlantic ... up and down enough to make one sea sick on the carpet ... bad doggo ...

Notice Storm #4 ... Hurricane Bonnie ... that's an Atlantic Basin name ... she crossed Central America relatively intact and spun up again in the Eastern Pacific ... pretty cool ... except for Central Americans I suppose ...
As a fairly new Florida resident, if not having spent a lot of time here for 15 yrs previous..
I watch everything....
Everything coming of the African coast, up the Gulf, and and East Coast weather.
this allows you to see even some of the Pacific side in motion.

click to see the tropics in motion.

ie now just the still view
1662520771014.png
 
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