What I got from the Iowa caucuses

[Hossfly]

2. The Dem nomination just got more interesting

And Hillary should be very worried about Sanders. They are in a near statistical tie right now.

Hillary also has this in the back of her feeble mind.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?

It means the only reason anyone cares about Iowa and NH is because the results there set the tone for the following states - and the fact that Trump has come in 10 points below where every poll had him in Iowa will take a serious chunk out of his momentum, no matter what stupid things he says to get more airtime.

Well, I'm supporting Cruz now. Rubio is my second choice, and Trump is my last resort. Wasn't really too stuck on Trump to begin with. Just goes to show that yes, you can jump off the bandwagon.

 

[bripat9643]

Who voted if the GOP establishment is dead?

People who hate the establishment, voted, obviously

 

[Flopper]

And, as an announcement, I am going to flip to Ted Cruz (not that I expect people to care). I will vote for him provided he makes it to my state primary intact. But if either Trump, Cruz, or Rubio win the nomination, I will rejoin the Republican party after a four year hiatus. I'm still a libertarian, though, of the little "l" variety

To be honest, I've been waiting for something like this to happen.

Delegates win the nomination. In Iowa, Cruz won 8 delegates and Trump won 7, and Rubio get's 6, Carson 2, and Paul 1. In delegate count, Cruz is leading Trump by 1 delegate, and Rubio by 2. They all have a good chance of winning the nomination. And if it's an open convention, then it will really be up in the air.

However, Cruz may be only 1 delegate vote ahead of Trump but the Iowa win will add fuel to his campaign in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

Don't forget Carson in 4th.

Good night for all

 

[Flopper]

And, as an announcement, I am going to flip to Ted Cruz (not that I expect people to care). I will vote for him provided he makes it to my state primary intact. But if either Trump, Cruz, or Rubio win the nomination, I will rejoin the Republican party after a four year hiatus. I'm still a libertarian, though, of the little "l" variety

To be honest, I've been waiting for something like this to happen.

so will they need a forklift to get you off the couch, Twinky-boy?

Actually, I'm kind of glad Cruz won, but not for the reasons you think. This breaks the "Reality TV Fever" the GOP has had. If Kasich or Rubio win New Hampshire, I suspect Trump will suspend his campaign and we might get a sensible argument over the direction of the GOP.

If Cruz is the GOP nominee, Hillary will beat him easily. I was much more worried about Trump, who could get the votes of the 51% of knobs who can't name their state's senators, but can name who the finalists on the Bachelor are.

It's interesting that Trump did best in the more rural areas and did rather poorly in the cities of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. I wonder if this is going to be a trend. If so, that's not going to be good for the Donald.

 

[Moonglow]

Carbine, I don't consider Rubio that way. I don't think he's establishment. Not by a long shot.

Edited: I said Cruz when I should have said Rubio.

He's pro-illegal alien...

 

[candycorn]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

Hillary won both primaries

 

[Missourian]

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?

It means the only reason anyone cares about Iowa and NH is because the results there set the tone for the following states - and the fact that Trump has come in 10 points below where every poll had him in Iowa will take a serious chunk out of his momentum, no matter what stupid things he says to get more airtime.

Huckabee 2004 and Santorum 2008? What tone did that set?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?

It means the only reason anyone cares about Iowa and NH is because the results there set the tone for the following states - and the fact that Trump has come in 10 points below where every poll had him in Iowa will take a serious chunk out of his momentum, no matter what stupid things he says to get more airtime.

Huckabee 2004 and Santorum 2008? What tone did that set?

It's not the same thing. I could be wrong, but from where I'm sitting, I see Trump's entire campaign built on momentum - and he just lost it.

 

[konradv]

Polls in the next three primary states:
Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

Pre-Iowa. That could change significantly now that blood is in the water and the establishment sharks start to circle.

 

[oreo]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

You're listening to a minority of people. 150K Republicans showed up in a state that probably has around 4 to 5 million Republicans in it. This is the continual problem with Caucus states--and I believe there are only 9 states in the country that still do it.

What showed in Iowa was MARCO RUBIO. Republicans are starting to think (finally) about which candidate can win the White House--which Rubio won that answer by 54%. Cruz came in on social issues, which is very typical of Iowa and Donald Trump came in on telling it like it is. But both Trump & Cruz would be a gift to democrats and they would get creamed in a National Election.

So I think if Marco Rubio can hang in here, (donation wise) he will be the eventual nominee of the party. We'll see but this race is far from over. As this moves into the Primary ballot states, we are going to see a lot more participation which will clear the fog.

Donald Trump just got tripped up--and I think he loses momentum after losing here. All the polls showed he was well ahead of the pack and coming in second has got to hurt.

 

[oreo]

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?

It means the only reason anyone cares about Iowa and NH is because the results there set the tone for the following states - and the fact that Trump has come in 10 points below where every poll had him in Iowa will take a serious chunk out of his momentum, no matter what stupid things he says to get more airtime.

Huckabee 2004 and Santorum 2008? What tone did that set?

It's not the same thing. I could be wrong, but from where I'm sitting, I see Trump's entire campaign built on momentum - and he just lost it.

Agree 100%.

 

[Jackson]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

The Tea Party has been around for a while now and it's not dead. But, just like the Democrat party, the elected representatives have to toe the mark. I don't like that...or lobbyists who peddle influence. Republican and Independent voters are coming around to the fact that they don't like to be told how to vote, they vote their conscious and what's good for the country rather than their party.

I wish we could be effective enough to bring independent candidates and just flip off the traditional parties.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

What one should 'get' from the Iowa caucuses is that they're as meaningless and as irrelevant this year as in primaries past.

The only thing significant about Iowa is Trump's loss.

 

[Jackson]

2. The Dem nomination just got more interesting

And Hillary should be very worried about Sanders. They are in a near statistical tie right now.

She has worries on her right and on her left. Let us not forget about the FBI investigations!

 

[Jackson]

What one should 'get' from the Iowa caucuses is that they're as meaningless and as irrelevant this year as in primaries past.

The only thing significant about Iowa is Trump's loss.

I think I agree with you, Clayton.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

The Tea Party has been around for a while now and it's not dead. But, just like the Democrat party, the elected representatives have to toe the mark. I don't like that...or lobbyists who peddle influence. Republican and Independent voters are coming around to the fact that they don't like to be told how to vote, they vote their conscious and what's good for the country rather than their party.

I wish we could be effective enough to bring independent candidates and just flip off the traditional parties.

And that requires the people getting involved at the very local level – something they refuse to do; and the TPM is a perfect example of how not to go about it – the TPM was partisan and divisive, made up mostly of reactionary libertarians, the social right, and conservative ideologues.

 

[Jackson]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

The Tea Party has been around for a while now and it's not dead. But, just like the Democrat party, the elected representatives have to toe the mark. I don't like that...or lobbyists who peddle influence. Republican and Independent voters are coming around to the fact that they don't like to be told how to vote, they vote their conscious and what's good for the country rather than their party.

I wish we could be effective enough to bring independent candidates and just flip off the traditional parties.

And that requires the people getting involved at the very local level – something they refuse to do; and the TPM is a perfect example of how not to go about it – the TPM was partisan and divisive, made up mostly of reactionary libertarians, the social right, and conservative ideologues.

The TPM was a grass root level operation and one that caught the attention of angry voters. It was conservative.

There was one statement that I believe I read on MSNBC today. It was about Trump and the feeling of freshness and patriotism that is felt in his crowds. Something we haven't felt as a country for a while.

So wouldn't be effective if we stopped thinking in terms of Liberals and Conservatives and started thinking of ourselves as "Our Country First!" Similar to "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." If we could just erase those lines that separate us and work together,

 

[HereWeGoAgain]

Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

Mostly true...but the Rube is part of the establishment.
Which makes me happy he came in third.