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What I got from the Iowa caucuses

TemplarKormac

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Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?
 

NYcarbineer

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Rubio is the establishment. He could not be more the establishment. He overperformed.
 
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TemplarKormac

TemplarKormac

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And, as an announcement, I am going to flip to Ted Cruz (not that I expect people to care). I will vote for him provided he makes it to my state primary intact. But if either Trump, Cruz, or Rubio win the nomination, I will rejoin the Republican party after a four year hiatus. I'm still a libertarian, though, of the little "l" variety

To be honest, I've been waiting for something like this to happen.
 
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TemplarKormac

TemplarKormac

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Carbine, I don't consider Rubio that way. I don't think he's establishment. Not by a long shot.

Edited: I said Cruz when I should have said Rubio.
 
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JoeB131

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And, as an announcement, I am going to flip to Ted Cruz (not that I expect people to care). I will vote for him provided he makes it to my state primary intact. But if either Trump, Cruz, or Rubio win the nomination, I will rejoin the Republican party after a four year hiatus. I'm still a libertarian, though, of the little "l" variety

To be honest, I've been waiting for something like this to happen.

so will they need a forklift to get you off the couch, Twinky-boy?

Actually, I'm kind of glad Cruz won, but not for the reasons you think. This breaks the "Reality TV Fever" the GOP has had. If Kasich or Rubio win New Hampshire, I suspect Trump will suspend his campaign and we might get a sensible argument over the direction of the GOP.

If Cruz is the GOP nominee, Hillary will beat him easily. I was much more worried about Trump, who could get the votes of the 51% of knobs who can't name their state's senators, but can name who the finalists on the Bachelor are.
 
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TemplarKormac

TemplarKormac

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Carbine, I don't consider Cruz that way. I don't think he's establishment. Not by a long shot.
Cruz is a social conservative nutjob who has an irrational fear of the government.



That's cute. If you want to go that route, then you're a loony lefty with an irrational love of government.
 

C_Clayton_Jones

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Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?
Disagree.

It's far too early to come to such a conclusion.

The GOP 'winners' in 2008 and 2012 both failed to win the nomination.
 

theDoctorisIn

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What I got from the Iowa caucuses:

1. The Trump bubble is going to pop sooner than I expected
2. The Dem nomination just got more interesting.
 

Bruce_T_Laney

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Cruz, Trump and Rubio all finished one, two, three in Iowa. The takeaway I got is this: the GOP establishment is dead. I wholeheartedly believe that. Voters have been betrayed one too many times by people they elected to represent them. People are angry. It showed tonight.

What do you think?

Rubio finished in a close third, so I would not say anything is dead. New Hampshire will be interesting and Cruz will most likely finish behind Trump and Rubio, so let see what South Carolina produces after that...
 

theDoctorisIn

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TemplarKormac

TemplarKormac

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1. The Trump bubble is going to pop sooner than I expected

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada
 

theDoctorisIn

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1. The Trump bubble is going to pop sooner than I expected

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.
 
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TemplarKormac

TemplarKormac

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1. The Trump bubble is going to pop sooner than I expected

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?
 

theDoctorisIn

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1. The Trump bubble is going to pop sooner than I expected

Actually I think Trump has a good shot to win New Hampshire.

He's always had a good shot at winning New Hampshire. But I don't think he'll get much farther than that, and 4 electoral votes won't get him very far.

Polls in the next three primary states:

Trump is beating Cruz by 26 points in New Hampshire
Trump is beating Cruz by 16 points in South Carolina
Trump is beating Cruz by 13 points in Nevada

All of those polls were taken before tonight.

And that would mean what exactly?

It means the only reason anyone cares about Iowa and NH is because the results there set the tone for the following states - and the fact that Trump has come in 10 points below where every poll had him in Iowa will take a serious chunk out of his momentum, no matter what stupid things he says to get more airtime.
 

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