Was American isolationism taken as a sign of cowardice?

[whitehall]

Incorrect racial stereotypes were common in the late 30's and early 40's. The Japanese thought that America was a weak decadent nation and the U.S. government actually thought that the Japanese were a nearsighted little yellow race that was incapable of building a ship that would float or a plane that would fly.

 

[Mushroom]

The Monroe Doctrine took a lot of guts. We basically told Britain and France (at the time both far larger and more populated worldwide empires) to stay the hell out of the Western Hemisphere. That it’s *our* turf.

Well, not quite. That is what we are taught in school, but the actual Doctrine was much more complex and covered a lot more.The occasion has been judged proper for asserting, as a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, that the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers.

The occasion has been judged proper for asserting, as a principle in which the rights and interests of the United States are involved, that the American continents, by the free and independent condition which they have assumed and maintain, are henceforth not to be considered as subjects for future colonization by any European powers. We owe it, therefore, to candor and to the amicable relations existing between the United States and those powers to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety. With the existing colonies or dependencies of any European power, we have not interfered and shall not interfere. But with the Governments who have declared their independence and maintained it, and whose independence we have, on great consideration and on just principles, acknowledged, we could not view any interposition for the purpose of oppressing them, or controlling in any other manner their destiny, by any European power in any other light than as the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States.

Most of two continents had already been colonized, and we would do nothing to interfere with that. We only stated that the colonies could not be extended, and that if they declared their independence we would side with them against the European nations they came from.

Not quite the same as "stay the hell out", more like "What you have now, but no more".

 

[Mushroom]

The Japanese knew in the early 1940s that there was no way Japan could win a protracted war with America. America supplied 80% of Japan's oil, 80% of Japan's iron, and 80% of Japan's copper for example.

So Japan had to give America a decisive strike that would make America immediately sue for peace. So Japan launched the successful surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

Well, not quite. And a lot of what Japan thought/hoped would happen largely did not.

To them the GEACPS was to be a form of "Pan-Asian Cooperation", where the nations "liberated" from "European Oppression" would flock to Japan, and see them as the saviors and form a new group of nations under their leadership.

However, for a great many reasons (including the penchant of Japan for brutality) that never happened.

As far as America "suing for peace", that was also never really expected. But they hoped that they could knock them out for long enough so that by the time they could react Japan would have already secured their holdings.

In theory, it was a sound plan. However what they did not expect was that most of the "liberation territories" did not see them as "saviors", but even more brutal oppressors than even the Europeans were. Specifically the Philippines and US-UK occupied China. Which were already well on the way to independence, only to see themselves have all of the rights and powers stripped away and turned into essentially "slave territories".

And while many did rightfully fear the industrial might of the US (Admiral Yamamoto in particular), the Army did not get that at all and pushed the nation into a war it could not win. They could have gotten the resources they needed to continue, but not fast enough to replace what they had lost from the US. Then add in the fact that they then would have had to provide both the refining of the raw materials into ready to use resources, and then the transportation back to Japan to make use of them. Something the US was already providing.

The US was not sending "Iron Ore", but already processed steel ready to be smelted into a final form. Not "raw crude", but often partially or fully refined petroleum that needed little to no additional refining. As well as the transportation from the US to Japan. That was a large part that Japan simply did not consider. And why one of their biggest problems as the war continued was the huge logistical challenge that they never could solve.

 

[whitehall]

The only logical reason for FDR inviting an attack at Pearl Harbor was that he really believed that Japan would be a pushover and an attack would convince Americans to support the "real" war in Europe.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

Well, not quite. And a lot of what Japan thought/hoped would happen largely did not.

To them the GEACPS was to be a form of "Pan-Asian Cooperation", where the nations "liberated" from "European Oppression" would flock to Japan, and see them as the saviors and form a new group of nations under their leadership.

However, for a great many reasons (including the penchant of Japan for brutality) that never happened.

As far as America "suing for peace", that was also never really expected. But they hoped that they could knock them out for long enough so that by the time they could react Japan would have already secured their holdings.

In theory, it was a sound plan. However what they did not expect was that most of the "liberation territories" did not see them as "saviors", but even more brutal oppressors than even the Europeans were. Specifically the Philippines and US-UK occupied China. Which were already well on the way to independence, only to see themselves have all of the rights and powers stripped away and turned into essentially "slave territories".

And while many did rightfully fear the industrial might of the US (Admiral Yamamoto in particular), the Army did not get that at all and pushed the nation into a war it could not win. They could have gotten the resources they needed to continue, but not fast enough to replace what they had lost from the US. Then add in the fact that they then would have had to provide both the refining of the raw materials into ready to use resources, and then the transportation back to Japan to make use of them. Something the US was already providing.

The US was not sending "Iron Ore", but already processed steel ready to be smelted into a final form. Not "raw crude", but often partially or fully refined petroleum that needed little to no additional refining. As well as the transportation from the US to Japan. That was a large part that Japan simply did not consider. And why one of their biggest problems as the war continued was the huge logistical challenge that they never could solve.

Japan couldn't fight a protracted war with America. Japan had just months, if not weeks, to win.

If the war dragged on longer than that, everyone knew Japan would lose.

 

[Mushroom]

Japan couldn't fight a protracted war with America. Japan had just months, if not weeks, to win.

I am not saying they could win or not. I was discussing their strategy for how they wanted the war to go.

The top political leadership expected a 2-3 year war, with the US humiliated and kicked out of the Central Pacific back to Hawaii, and they ruling everything north of Australia.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

I am not saying they could win or not. I was discussing their strategy for how they wanted the war to go.

The top political leadership expected a 2-3 year war, with the US humiliated and kicked out of the Central Pacific back to Hawaii, and they ruling everything north of Australia.

Why would you fight a war you knew you were going to lose?

The only way the Japanese could win is if America immediately sued for peace after the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

That didn't happen. Quite the opposite.

 

[DudleySmith]

Japan couldn't fight a protracted war with America. Japan had just months, if not weeks, to win.

If the war dragged on longer than that, everyone knew Japan would lose.

They had a three year window in which to succeed in forcing the U.S. to sue for terms. It so happened that we had some early unexpected successes and they made some bad decisions and we could proceed at will. FDR and Marshall found Churchill's arguments to be the soundest strategically and economically and went with focusing on the war in Europe and the Med, and leaving the Navy to decide the war in the Pacific, for obvious reasons.

As for why, they were batshit crazy rightwingers convinced of their natural superiority and ruthlessness, not any different than leftwing nutjobs.

 

[DudleySmith]

The only logical reason for FDR inviting an attack at Pearl Harbor was that he really believed that Japan would be a pushover and an attack would convince Americans to support the "real" war in Europe.

He never invited an attack on Pearl.

 

[DudleySmith]

Incorrect racial stereotypes were common in the late 30's and early 40's. The Japanese thought that America was a weak decadent nation and the U.S. government actually thought that the Japanese were a nearsighted little yellow race that was incapable of building a ship that would float or a plane that would fly.

Not really; they were an industrial power, capable of defeating the Russians and giving everybody else a run for their money by the late 19th Century. They were very good at copying technology from the West.

 

[Mushroom]

Why would you fight a war you knew you were going to lose?

The only way the Japanese could win is if America immediately sued for peace after the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor.

They did not expect to lose, they thought they would win.

As they had all other wars for thousands of years. Because they were Japanese.

And no, that was not the only way. The War in the Pacific was much closer than you are giving it credit for. A few battles turning out differently, and it very well could have been Japan the victor.

For example, imagine how the war might have turned if Midway was not short of water.

 

[Mushroom]

As for why, they were barshit crazy rightwingers convinced of their natural superiority and ruthlessness, not any different than leftwing nutjobs.

For Early Showa Era Japan, such concepts really do not apply. However, they were Ultra-Nationalists to such a degree that it even made Der Postcard Painter look like a red flag waving Internationalist.

 

[Mushroom]

Not really; they were an industrial power, capable of defeating the Russians and giving everybody else a run for their money by the late 19th Century. They were very good at copying technology from the West.

And actually pulling ahead. Japan actually was a world leader in optics well before the war started. As well as growing respect for their physicists. And there was no question they were an industrial giant.

One must never confuse what many people of a nation think with what their government thinks. Most people today are as ignorant of life in Argentina as were ignorant of life in Japan before WWII. But the government knew better, and had been watching them with increasing alarm for decades before the war even started.

 

[Otis Mayfield]

They did not expect to lose, they thought they would win.

As they had all other wars for thousands of years. Because they were Japanese.

And no, that was not the only way. The War in the Pacific was much closer than you are giving it credit for. A few battles turning out differently, and it very well could have been Japan the victor.

For example, imagine how the war might have turned if Midway was not short of water.

America supplied 80% of Japan's oil. The Yamamoto battleship couldn't move because it had no fuel.

America supplied 80% of Japan's iron and copper.

 

[Mushroom]

America supplied 80% of Japan's oil. The Yamamoto battleship couldn't move because it had no fuel.

America supplied 80% of Japan's iron and copper.

Right. That is why they had 2 of their biggest ships steaming to Okinawa late in the war. And certainly had no problems putting their ships and aircraft into operation.

And goodness, they were having to build submarines out of bamboo I guess.

And it was not "Yamamoto", he was an Admiral. The IJN Yamato was one of their two lead battleships (along with the Musashi, and the Shinano which was converted to a carrier).

The Yamato did indeed move, but rarely as the escorts planned for it's fleet had largely been destroyed by that time. So she was sent to Okinawa to beach herself and operate as an artillery position but was sunk enroute.

Shinano was sunk enroute to Hiroshima with a load of rocket powered suicide aircraft when she was sunk.

They did indeed still have fuel, and did move even their largest ships.

But no, the "Yamamoto" never moved, because there was never such a ship.

 

[DudleySmith]

America supplied 80% of Japan's oil. The Yamamoto battleship couldn't move because it had no fuel.

America supplied 80% of Japan's iron and copper.

And as the Standard Oil people informed FDR, they had about a three year reserve in storage, and they had siezed the wells and refineries of of the Dutch colonies in SE Asia.

One of the weird pieces of luck we had after Pearl was when one of our subs sunk a tanker that had over 800 of their experienced oil refinery and other petroleum experts on board; they had only had about a 1,000 to begin with, and they decided to put nearly all of them on one ship for some reason, not a good idea when we had subs prowling around. This, along with sinking a lot of their tankers, slowed them down quite a bit.

Also see:

Japan and oil - Axis History Forum

forum.axishistory.com

... and some 'what ifs':

What if Daqing Oil Field had been found in 1941??? - Axis History Forum

forum.axishistory.com

The Russian fields would have been an interesting 'what if', since the treaty with Russia during Barbarossa freed up over a million Soviet troops with full cold weather gear just in time to get to the Battle of Moscow, along with a British armor shipment of 125 tanks. If Japan had instead continued the front there in order to get the oil those troops would have had to stay.

 

[whitehall]

He never invited an attack on Pearl.

The Navy wanted the fleet to be based on the West Coast but FDR insisted that it remain in Hawaii. The valuable Carriers were coincidently out at sea (away from the likely location of the advancing Japanese) while the old Battle wagons were parked side by side. COS Marshall had the decoded message that indicated an imminent attack in his hand for hours and finally sent a freaking Western Union telegram to Hawaii that arrived about the same time as the zeros. Marshall was credited for having a near photographic memory but he couldn't remember where he was the night before the attack. FDR's oratory skills could make a menu sound profound so the embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Japanese was turned into "the Day of Infamy" and everybody forgot about the government's negligence or intentional negligence.

 

[Mushroom]

The valuable Carriers were coincidently out at sea (away from the likely location of the advancing Japanese) while the old Battle wagons were parked side by side.

The USS Enterprise was on the way back to Hawaii after delivering a dozen Wildcats to Wake Island.

The USS Lexington was on the way to Midway with 18 Vindicators. The attack resulted in the ship turning around and returning to Hawaii, not delivering the aircraft.

The USS Saratoga had just finished a six month overhaul at Puget Sound, and was enroute back to San Diego. She did not even have her air group on board, and was to pick up that and fighters for transfer to Hawaii.

So that is the location of each carrier on 7 December. The Saratoga actually had her overhaul cut short, and was sailing without escorts and fighters as they wanted her to start ferry duties as soon as possible. The other 3 Pacific carriers were almost constantly running from Hawaii to various island outposts delivering fighters as quickly as they could. Philippines, Wake, Midway, the US was trying to increase the number of aircraft as quickly as they could.

If one "knows an attack is coming", they do not send out lone carriers by themselves. Especially knowing that once they delivered their fighters they would have almost no air cover for the return trip.

And yes, many had the message before the Japanese ambassador did. But they had to keep the secret of MAGIC for as long as they could. More than anything else, that is ultimately what won the war for the US.

AF is short of water.

 

[Mushroom]

The Navy wanted the fleet to be based on the West Coast but FDR insisted that it remain in Hawaii.

And once again, half-truth.

In short, the Pacific Fleet was a mess, being split between three different bases. San Diego, San Pedro, and others in Washington. They could not all operate out of one base, and the area they had been operating out of "San Pedro - Long Beach) was already being prepared for a major shipyard that was already being built. As it was, most times the battleships did not even have berthing on the pier, they tied up at sea and everything and everybody was moved by boats.

Hawaii was the only port large enough to handle most of the fleet at one location. But the headquarters actually remained in San Pedro, just the ships moved. And it also put it closer to provide assistance to the Asiatic Fleet if needed. But by early 1941 a large part of the Pacific forces were being moved forward in expectation of a war with Japan. And that buildup was still underway when the war broke out.

 

[DudleySmith]

America supplied 80% of Japan's oil. The Yamamoto battleship couldn't move because it had no fuel.

America supplied 80% of Japan's iron and copper.

And they stockpiled, and made plans for other sources, as the links at the links I posted indicate. As for iron and other metals, they scoured the U.S. junkyards like locusts in the post-WW I decades. This isn't any big secret. One of my grandfather's best friends got wealthy selling scrap metal from the oil patches and railroads to the Japanese in the 1930's; so did a lot of junkyard and wrecking yard owners.