Will Trump's Appeasement Policies Work?

[Zavulon]

How so?

How they swallowed it? People just believe in what they want to believe, and they believe that Russians and Chinamen are basically the same as themselves. May be, they thought something like: "Hey, we have all those great, beautiful biolabs to develop democratic anti-Russian and anti-Chinese biological weapon, of course those evil Russians and Chinamen have their dark thoughts about making their tyrannical anti-American bioweapons. And of course, it's not just thoughts, of course they already have all those labs not just to improve quality of their drugs, but to destroy they whole tissue of our society, put us in chaos, ruin the democracy, et cetera.... They do it simply because they are evil, and we are good".

 

[Correll]

How they swallowed it? ...

No, how is trump in a situtaion now?

 

[Zavulon]

No, how is trump in a situtaion now?

If he really believes that there is WMD in Venezuela, he has to play pretty complicated and expensive game of Minimal Deterrence. May be, it is one of the reasons why he kidnapped Maduro alive and has to keep his as a hostage, rather than just to kill him. (May be, of course, he just needs some dirt on Democrats).
Same way, Rodriguez, who's father was tortured to death by CIA butchers, and who came in power because both her personal loyaltiness to Chavez (and Maduro) and her personal hatred to the USA, has to play this game. May be, she can destroy one American city and kill 10 mln Americans (which might be terrible, but survivable loss for the USA) but, quite likely, in less than a day, most of Venezuela's cities will be destroyed and more than 15 mln of Venezuela's civilians (and she likely, be one of them) will be dead. And if she is not really cornered (and Maduro is still alive) she prefers not to do it. After all, there still is a chance to return Maduro alive and keep Venezuela independent.

May be (and quite likely), the USA plan now not "decapitating", but "counter-force" operation, for searching and destroying this concealed WMD bases and then, she is in the situation "use it or lose it", and then she has to use it now. And may be, it is what about her conversations with Russia, China and Iran representatives.

Maduro's personal game is quite simple: while Americans are not certain about WMDs, he is alive. So, he have to keep them in tension telling them horror stories, but not to scary them too much, because they might accept say, 10% chance of losing one city as acceptable risk (comparing with, say, raising risks of uncontrollable escalation) and attack and try to occupy Venezuela directly.

So, right now the USA are running out of good or even acceptable options. In the best scenario - they are losing big money to keep Venezuela happy, in the worst scenario they are losing millions citizens of the USA killed.

 

[Zavulon]

What is complicating this game even more, there are a lot of simple people who don't like all those sophisticated political, diplomatic and deterrence games. They just say "F$&k it all, let's just kill as many of them, as we can, even if we are losing the war after it and going to die. It is much better to die as a human being, than live like cattle under US-yoke". It's quite popular point of view, and "Bandera de Guerra a Muerte" is quite popular flag in Venezuela. So, some guys may decide to use WMD even without permission of Rodriguez.

 

[Correll]

If he really believes that there is WMD in Venezuela, he has to play pretty complicated and expensive game of Minimal Deterrence. May be, it is one of the reasons why he kidnapped Maduro alive and has to keep his as a hostage, rather than just to kill him. (May be, of course, he just needs some dirt on Democrats).

I think you are referring to the drugs that venezuela were running. While calling them a WMD is... reasonable considering the numbers of Americans killed,

your pretense that it is something that can take out a city is silly.

Thus Trump is NOT in a "situation" as you.... oddly claimed.

Trump has done a big service to AMERICA, by removing a big source of drugs. This could save whole American communities.

Same way, Rodriguez, who's father was tortured to death by CIA butchers, and who came in power because both her personal loyaltiness to Chavez (and Maduro) and her personal hatred to the USA, has to play this game. May be, she can destroy one American city and kill 10 mln Americans (which might be terrible, but survivable loss for the USA) but, quite likely, in less than a day, most of Venezuela's cities will be destroyed and more than 15 mln of Venezuela's civilians (and she likely, be one of them) will be dead. And if she is not really cornered (and Maduro is still alive) she prefers not to do it. After all, there still is a chance to return Maduro alive and keep Venezuela independent.

Give us what we want. This bit where people spew shit talk and we pretend to be addressing problems while America getts fucked,

yeah, MAGA isn't playing that game anymore.

May be (and quite likely), the USA plan now not "decapitating", but "counter-force" operation, for searching and destroying this concealed WMD bases and then, she is in the situation "use it or lose it", and then she has to use it now. And may be, it is what about her conversations with Russia, China and Iran representatives.

We have blockaded a country that, incredibly, imports 80% of their food. They will be negotiating or collapsing in short order.

GIVE US WHAT WE WANT.

Maduro's personal game is quite simple: while Americans are not certain about WMDs, he is alive. So, he have to keep them in tension telling them horror stories, but not to scary them too much, because they might accept say, 10% chance of losing one city as acceptable risk (comparing with, say, raising risks of uncontrollable escalation) and attack and try to occupy Venezuela directly.

Maduro is a prisoner facing life in prison. He is going to die behind bars. He has no cards to play and is done.

He poked the bear, (or the eagle I guess in deference to the russian I am talking to) and he is now realizing what a stupid idea that was.

So, right now the USA are running out of good or even acceptable options. In the best scenario - they are losing big money to keep Venezuela happy, in the worst scenario they are losing millions citizens of the USA killed.

Venezuela will give us what we want. Are options are different ways to bend them to our will.