Seems to me that the mid terms are going to be about one (1) thing: Democratic turnout.
Dems will make 2022 and 2024 about TRUMP
It worked in 2018 and 2020
Republicans are doing nothing to convince voters they are not THE PARTY OF TRUMP
Yeah, I think the GQP vote totals are pretty much set in stone. Extremely high turnout, not much growth, maybe a little contraction.
I guess the question now is whether this ugly period really did wake up a sleeping giant on the Left.
I think you are ignoring one very big factor.
The republicans have been purging their party of sane and intelligent people.
People, especially in the suburbs, women and Independents, have been running from the republicans in horror since 2018. They also have not expanded their party by adding new people.
Millions of republican voters are now Independents and aren't going to run out to vote for republicans like they used to.
One very important factor is the voting suppression reform many red states have passed into law. It will be harder to vote for almost everyone. Republicans used to have a very high number of mail in voters, they don't anymore and it will decrease even more because of the new mail in voting laws in red states. It won't be as easy for those in rural areas to vote either.
History shows that the party in the White House loses seats in congress in non presidential voting years so that will be a factor.
I don't think anyone can predict what will happen in the election next year.
Anyone who thinks they can is only fooling themselves.
I could be wrong but it's never a good idea to count chickens before they hatch.