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Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses

Missourian

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The findings before the first ballots are cast in the 2016 presidential nomination race shows Trump with the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by 23 percent for the Texas senator and 15 percent for U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida.

The billionaire real estate mogul leads Cruz among those who say they definitely plan to attend, 30 percent to 26 percent. With the less committed—those who say they'll probably attend—Trump also beats Cruz, 27 percent to 21 percent.

“Trump is leading with both the inner core of the caucus universe and the fringe—that’s what any candidate would want," said longtime Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey for the news organizations.

Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses

 

Toro

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It's going to be an interesting vote. From the article.

More than half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.
What's also interesting is this graphic.

-1x-1.jpg


I've never participated in a caucus, so I don't know exactly what happens, but my understanding is that amongst the lower tier candidates, if they don't meet a certain threshold, their votes go to one of the other candidates. Rubio is the highest second choice, and Cruz leads when combining the first and second choices. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rubio and Cruz do better than the polls indicate. Rubio has also been making a very concerted last minute drive in the state, keeping his powder dry until the last week of the campaign.

Remember, Santorum was third in the polls leading up to the actual vote but won.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
 
OP
Missourian

Missourian

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It's going to be an interesting vote. From the article.

More than half—55 percent—say their mind is made up, while 45 percent say they either don't have a first-choice candidate or could still be persuaded to pick someone else. In the final Iowa Poll before the 2012 Republican caucuses, 51 percent say they had their minds made up.
What's also interesting is this graphic.

-1x-1.jpg


I've never participated in a caucus, so I don't know exactly what happens, but my understanding is that amongst the lower tier candidates, if they don't meet a certain threshold, their votes go to one of the other candidates. Rubio is the highest second choice, and Cruz leads when combining the first and second choices. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rubio and Cruz do better than the polls indicate. Rubio has also been making a very concerted last minute drive in the state, keeping his powder dry until the last week of the campaign.

Remember, Santorum was third in the polls leading up to the actual vote but won.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
We have a primary and a caucus. There is no doubt that caucuses are more chaotic, fluid and unpredictable than straight primaries.
 

Rexx Taylor

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i still see a surprise. my gut tells me its going to be cruz/rubio in the top two within 3 points of one another.
 
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Missourian

Missourian

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Toro --- I read the rules for the Iowa Caucus...apparently on the Republican side, it is pretty standard, like a primary. It's the Democrat side that is complicated, with minimum support levels and grouping.

The Republican caucus voting system in Iowa is relatively straightforward: You come in, you vote, typically through secret ballot, and the percentages of the group supporting each candidate decides what delegates will go on to the county convention.

The Democrats have a more complex system -- in fact, it's one of the most complex pieces of the entire presidential election. In a typical caucus, registered Democrats gather at the precinct meeting places (there are around 1,700 precincts statewide), supporters for each candidate have a chance to make their case, and then the participants gather into groups supporting particular candidates (undecided voters also cluster into a group). In order for a particular group to be viable, they must have a certain percentage of all the caucus participants. So participants will try to convince their neighbors to join their group. If they don't get enough people, the group disbands, and its members go to another group. The percentage cut-off is determined by the number of delegates assigned to the precinct.

How do caucuses work?
 
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Missourian

Missourian

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With a grain of salt...as every campaign wants to lower expectations in a tight race..CYA


Campaigns lower expectations in Iowa, brace for Trump win
By Manu Raju, Senior Political Reporter CNN

...each of these candidates [Cruz, Rubio & Bush] have something in common: They are bracing for a Donald Trump win in Iowa and planning for the aftermath.

"There will be a lot of momentum swings," Jeff Roe, Cruz's campaign manager, said when asked about the prospects of his candidate losing to Trump here Monday night. "I'm not going to be beholden to what a headline says after any state. That's not the way our campaign is structured."

The comments are striking given how much emphasis Cruz has placed in Iowa. But it's the latest signal that the nominating fight could extend well into spring, despite Cruz warning that Trump could be "unstoppable" if he were to win here Monday night. Each of the candidates are now trying to position themselves as the Trump alternative, with an implicit recognition that he remains the dominant figure in the race.

Campaigns lower expectations in Iowa, brace for Trump win - CNNPolitics.com
 

HenryBHough

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Q: Why do poll takers all have brown eyes?

A: They don't when they start on the job. Within an hour they are filled with enough shit by people whose dinner was interrupted that.........
 

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