I had this conversation with my brother and his neighbors the other night. My brother loves Trump (he's a cop) and thinks his reelection is a slam dunk because Biden is an idiot. I told him I'm not going to predict anything for November at this point, since I lost a $1,000 bet to him in 2016 that Hillary would win, but I did say if he does win it won't be the walk in the park like he thinks it is.
Trump could have saved himself a few weeks ago if he went straight to the American people and accepted responsibility. He should have set up a press conference from his desk in the Oval Office and spoke directly to the people. He should have said that in hindsight he admits they should have paid closer attention to this virus earlier and ask that the people please understand at the time they were operating with false information from China and flawed data from the WHO and the CDC. Nonetheless, he is the president and as Harry Truman once said, "the buck stops here." He'll accepts full responsibility for the missteps, but what's important now is that we all come together and find the best solution through this where we can limit the loss of life due to the virus while also mitigating the destruction to our economy and the financial well being of millions more.
The left, of course, would have pounced on that. "See!! He admits it!! His fault! His fault!" But, so what? They are going to do that anyway. The media would have a field day with it too, but again, who cares? They are going to do that anyway. That message would have been for the people in the middle: the moderate Democrats, the centrist Republicans, the suburban "Karens" who are slowly turning to the Democratic Party. Most of those people have the sense to see through the media spin and understand that yes, the world was hoodwinked, but yes, the administration should have been a bit more on top of things. They would have accepted this mea culpa on his part and he would have walked away from that speech smelling like roses. This is very similar to what Reagan did after the Iran Contra Affair and the people forgave him for it and elected his vice-president as the next president shortly thereafter.
Trump didn't do this, however, and he won't because the man is a narcissist. He takes credit for everything that happens, but points the finger at someone else when anything bad happens. He can't admit when he's wrong and he won't accept responsibility for anything. Instead, he continues to be combative. That may have worked for him when we were at DOW 29K, but not when 90% of the country is on shelter at home orders with their Constitutional liberties being grossly eroded right before their eyes with little push back.
At this point, it's probably too late for that now. His only hope is that come November people ultimately decide that staying with him four more years is better medicine than electing a 78 year old Biden who is slowly losing his mental faculties.
Accept responsibility for what? Obviously the virus isn't Trump's fault. Based on the information coming out of China and the resources available to him at the time Trump responded as well as any administration possibly could.
If anything, I blame Democrats. While the virus was making its way across the world, most of America's attention was diverted to a politically motivated impeachment that everyone knew never had a chance of succeeding due to lack of concrete evidence. During the impeachment, Trump was already taking steps in January to slow the virus while Democrats criticized his every move, including Joe Biden calling him xenophobic for banning flights from affected areas. Trump talked about the virus during his State Of The Union speech while Nancy Pelosi stood behind him and tore his speech up like a petulant child. Weeks after Trump declared a national health emergency Democrats were still encouraging large crowd gatherings.
There is absolutely nothing to gain by Trump taking responsibility for fault that isn't his. If he did, that would be a sound bite Democrats would play repeatedly up until November while the MSM ignores the Democrats own egregious mishandling of the virus.
Trump might be a narcissist, but so was Obama. Most people that make it that far in life have a hint of narcissism. As for Trump's combative nature with the MSM, I like it. I'm tired of the blatant lies and the unfounded accusations of racism. It's about time we have someone not afraid to call them out and give it right back. Trump's tweets hurt no one. But lies told by Pelosi, Schummer and the rest of their ilk hurt America (how much of our hard earned tax dollars did they waste with impeachment???).
Unfortunately, the only thing I agree with your OP is the November election is not a sure win for either side. Even with Joe Biden's obvious declining mental capacity, Democrats will vote for him. The MSM will continue to lie and push the Liberal narrative that Trump is bad for America. The false narrative of racism and white supremacy will continue to be pushed on the America people. Democrats will push any lie, false narrative and BS story in order to win in November, and half of America will buy it.