Trump Leads Clinton by 6

[konradv]

The poll under represents Democrats and Independents and over represents Republicans.

Sounds like reverse S.O.P.

The only way Trump gets a lead, finagling the numbers.

 

[Old Rocks]

Laughing....you just proved me right again. I said that the polling in August in the weeks after the conventions has accurately predicted the popular vote winner in the last 16 of 16 elections.

And you graciously post a poll that puts Reagan up in August of 1980. Validating my point and following the pattern I described exactly.

The funniest part? You just claimed that your validation of my theory.....disproves my theory. Its watching a dog chase its own tail.

roflmao, no it does not validate your claim, idiot since the Democrats that year did not end their convention until August 14th. So it is the Dem 39% GOP 38% polling data point that fits your claim, not the one from BEFORE the Democratic convention.


Lol, do you ever wonder why I like responding to your idiots posts?

roflmao


I have to go do some more chores, so go ahead and claim victory again, loser. I will simply straighten out when I get back anyway.

This shit is fun.

So lemme get this straight....

1980: Following the RNC, Reagan was up by 16. Following the DNC convention, Carter was up by 1.

Reagan won the election.

2016: Following the RNC, Trump is up by 1. Following the DNC, Hillary is up by as many as 12, according to one poll; averages at about 8 points up.

Hillary wins the election then, right?

The media actually kept that election tight all the way up until election night. In fact--they were within the margin of error 2-3 points 3 days before the election, and of course Reagan won in a landslide election.

2016--and according to the below state chart article this will be similar to the result, just color Arizona & Georgia blue, because Hillary Clinton is leading in those states.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...frAMnzI_5wwji3TZagLNJlVH-7LpoPPjzU_isVo9G02Dc

You wanted Trump, now you OWN it.
You Wanted Trump, You’ve Got Him | The American Spectator

Good article....unfortunately Trump supporters don't care much about all the negatives on Trump. He threw out red meat to them when he voiced his racist attitude, made fun of the handicapped reporters, etc., because that's the kind of President they want...one that speaks their language...one who says "they can go fuck themselves" on National TV, no matter if it's on prime time and children are watching....those are his supporters.

And Hillary supporters want a liar and a criminal, someone who will sell them out to the highest bidder. Leftwing reporters can go fuck themselves. Why should any American care whether Trump offended one of them? They offend me every hour of every day.

Po' baby, want a crying towel? Need the diaper changed? LOL

 

[Siete]

So lemme get this straight....

1980: Following the RNC, Reagan was up by 16. Following the DNC convention, Carter was up by 1.

Reagan won the election.

2016: Following the RNC, Trump is up by 1. Following the DNC, Hillary is up by as many as 12, according to one poll; averages at about 8 points up.

Hillary wins the election then, right?

The media actually kept that election tight all the way up until election night. In fact--they were within the margin of error 2-3 points 3 days before the election, and of course Reagan won in a landslide election.

2016--and according to the below state chart article this will be similar to the result, just color Arizona & Georgia blue, because Hillary Clinton is leading in those states.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...frAMnzI_5wwji3TZagLNJlVH-7LpoPPjzU_isVo9G02Dc

You wanted Trump, now you OWN it.
You Wanted Trump, You’ve Got Him | The American Spectator

Good article....unfortunately Trump supporters don't care much about all the negatives on Trump. He threw out red meat to them when he voiced his racist attitude, made fun of the handicapped reporters, etc., because that's the kind of President they want...one that speaks their language...one who says "they can go fuck themselves" on National TV, no matter if it's on prime time and children are watching....those are his supporters.

Agree--I have young Grandchildren 10 & 7 that are scared to death of Donald Trump. And when kids are afraid of someone it's time to sit up and take notice. It's not out of anything I have told them it's just what they have seen on T.V.

He is the most incompetent, unqualified, dangerous candidate this nation has ever had. He's an absolute disgrace to the Republican party.
Donald Trump is a unique threat to American democracy

my 4 year old grandchild hates him ... lol

I'm sure that's without any coaching from you or his parents, right?

"he makes ugly faces" ...


her dad is a Fox News Trumpbot

when shes at my house we watch the aquarium ... no room for politics with a 4 year old.

 

[Skylar]

And......the US Daily Wire just shut down.

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Once again, The Rube falls for another load of comforting pro-Trump horseshit that turns out to be.....

.....wait for it....

Horseshit.

 

[dannyboys]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

 

[dannyboys]

Suck on it, douche bags! Trump Leads Clinton by 6

A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another six percent (6%) remain undecided. Trump has a 14 point lead among men, only 1 down among women! The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).​

The poll under represents Democrats and Independents and over represents Republicans. Nice try, shortbus.

So you are now admitting 'polls' are skewed depending on the architecture of the poll and the demographic polled.
Thanks.
You're getting somewhere finally.

 

[Skylar]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

Cell phones and social media were around in 2012 too. And yet Nate Silver absolutely nailed the election, calling the popular vote within 2%, the electoral count within 20, every state, every congressional race, every senate race save one.

If polling has no accuracy.....how do you account for Nate Silver's stunning accuracy?

 

[mamooth]

Well, the majority of the 2012 polls were biased a bit, in favor of Romney.

 

[dannyboys]

That poll has Hillary Clinton winning women by ONE point. The latest YouGov poll on realclear has Clinton winning women by FOURTEEN points. Somebody is very wrong.

At the end of the day women want JOBS so their children can live a decent normal life.
I find it hard to believe any sane woman would want a career criminal, enabler of Bill's sexual predations, lying 1%er bull dycke schank as President. No matter how many times the corrupt LIB MSM tells them the first president with a 8888 will make their children's lives better.

 

[dannyboys]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

Cell phones and social media were around in 2012 too. And yet Nate Silver absolutely nailed the election, calling the popular vote within 2%, the electoral count within 20, every state, every congressional race, every senate race save one.

If polling has no accuracy.....how do you account for Nate Silver's stunning accuracy?

How Nate Silver Failed To Predict Trump

 

[dannyboys]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

Cell phones and social media were around in 2012 too. And yet Nate Silver absolutely nailed the election, calling the popular vote within 2%, the electoral count within 20, every state, every congressional race, every senate race save one.

If polling has no accuracy.....how do you account for Nate Silver's stunning accuracy?

How Nate Silver Failed To Predict Trump

Nate Silver Said Donald Trump Had No Shot. Where Did He Go Wrong?

 

[AceRothstein]

That poll has Hillary Clinton winning women by ONE point. The latest YouGov poll on realclear has Clinton winning women by FOURTEEN points. Somebody is very wrong.

At the end of the day women want JOBS so their children can live a decent normal life.
I find it hard to believe any sane woman would want a career criminal, enabler of Bill's sexual predations, lying 1%er bull dycke schank as President. No matter how many times the corrupt LIB MSM tells them the first president with a 8888 will make their children's lives better.

If they want jobs then they surely won't vote for the person who outsources to other countries and brings foreign workers to America.

 

[dannyboys]

Tell me when you want me to stop putting up examples of how badly Silver fucked up. Silver is using outdated polling models.

 

[konradv]

Suck on it, douche bags! Trump Leads Clinton by 6

A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another six percent (6%) remain undecided. Trump has a 14 point lead among men, only 1 down among women! The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).​

The poll under represents Democrats and Independents and over represents Republicans. Nice try, shortbus.

So you are now admitting 'polls' are skewed depending on the architecture of the poll and the demographic polled. Thanks. You're getting somewhere finally.

Good polls reflect reality. The one in the OP is skewed to get a desired result.

 

[Skylar]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

Cell phones and social media were around in 2012 too. And yet Nate Silver absolutely nailed the election, calling the popular vote within 2%, the electoral count within 20, every state, every congressional race, every senate race save one.

If polling has no accuracy.....how do you account for Nate Silver's stunning accuracy?

How Nate Silver Failed To Predict Trump

So you consider 2012 where he picked 50 of 50 States, 534 of 535 members of congress, the popular vote within 2% and the electoral college within 20 to be random chance?

Would you like to calculate the odds of anyone being able to do that randomly. Spoiler Alert: We're gonna need exponents.

 

[JimH52]

Suck on it, douche bags!

Trump Leads Clinton by 6​

A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another six percent (6%) remain undecided. Trump has a 14 point lead among men, only 1 down among women! The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).​

Can't even find a link?

 

[Skylar]

I have seen Trump up by at least 15 points....
In some states 27.....

What the hell happened?....

They are now talking landslide Trump....
With over 400 electoral votes....

Shocking....
How did the pollsters get it sooooo wrong????

The pollsters didn't "get it wrong".
They are relying on methodology that is now obsolete. And they know it. They are a dying industry. And they know it. In four years not a single traditional polling model will be used by any of the few surviving polling companies.
Cell phones and social media killed traditional polling.
The hilarious part is the stupid LIB controlled MSM is frantically attempting to use traditional polling to 'spin' for Hillary.
The assholes are in for a HUUUUUUGE! surprise. Only they are not. DNC insiders know very well what the 'real' polls' are saying about Hillary's chances. Like fucking Zero!
Watch for Biden to be sent to the mound within a month before it's way too late.

So why were you citing polls as late as *last month* when Trump was leading....but now insist that polls have no validity?

And as an aside, have you heard of "Confirmation Bias'?

 

[konradv]

Tell me when you want me to stop putting up examples of how badly Silver fucked up. Silver is using outdated polling models.

I'll stop quoting him on presidential elections when he's shown to be wrong. The last two have been spot on, so you're jumping the gun by saying his methods are out-dated.

 

[Skylar]

Tell me when you want me to stop putting up examples of how badly Silver fucked up. Silver is using outdated polling models.

I'll stop quoting him on presidential elections when he's shown to be wrong. The last two have been spot on, so you're jumping the gun by saying his methods are out-dated.

Especially when Danny *is* quoting polling.....when he thought Trump was in the lead last month.

The only time polling loses its validity is when it doesn't tell him what he wants to believe.

 

[dannyboys]

Suck on it, douche bags!

Trump Leads Clinton by 6​

A new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%). Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another six percent (6%) remain undecided. Trump has a 14 point lead among men, only 1 down among women! The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).​

In October I'm going to point this thread out as the perfect example why you Republicans are liars and have no credibility.

And if Trump wins in a landslide what will you do then?
Come on asshole! Put your membership here on the line. Trump wins you leave this forum forever. OK?