Donald Trump’s new favorite poll is way out of step with the polling average. But why?
In addition to some
further afield tweets sent out by Donald Trump on Monday morning, the Republican presidential nominee retweeted someone who'd seized upon an unusual bit of good news: A poll showing Trump in the lead.
Trump's interest in tweeting out poll numbers
has waned in recent weeks, thanks to his poll numbers doing the same. For two weeks between Aug. 1 and Aug. 16, Trump didn't tweet any poll numbers
at all, a remarkable shift from the poll-happy candidate we saw throughout the Republican primary. The one he tweeted on the 16th didn't even show him with a lead.
But this new one does.
The LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll
So why does the Times/USC poll consistently show Trump doing better than other surveys? Earlier this month, the New York Times' Nate Cohn
pointed out a unique part of the poll's methodology. The poll is a panel of 3,200 people, who the Times and USC continually poll over the course of the election. Those 3,000 people (only about a seventh of whom are actually polled each day) were asked who they voted for in 2012, and the results are weighted to reflect that.
The possible problem here is that people often misremember how they voted. This was a
fairly big issue after the 2008 election when people were more likely to say they voted for Obama than polling suggested. There has been
research conducted into why it happens, noting that it's usually the winner who more people remember having backed. Call it Woodstock syndrome: People like to say that they were on board with the popular thing even if they weren't.
But there's one other big number that is worth noting. Asked who they think will win the race, 54 percent of respondents say that they think Clinton is the most likely winner. That question -- who people think will win -- has been shown to
have advantages in predicting the outcome of the election.
The top-line, though -- the number that Trump loves -- shows him with a lead.
It's the only poll that shows that result, and the poll average continues to show Clinton with a big lead. We likely won't know for sure if the Times/USC numbers are the better ones until Nov. 8.
Donald Trump’s new favorite poll is way out of step with the polling average. But why?